Some background on the hand: I have been sitting at the table for about an hour and have been running over the table after being smacked by the deck. Villain in the hand is a tight older guy wearing large headphones who hasn't been involved in any sizable pots in my hour at the table. Villain has ~$650 and I have him covered with ~$1200.

4 players limp including Villain in the CO, SB completes, and I check my option with A9

Flop comes 469 ($30)

I lead out for $25 after SB checks, a few limpers fold, Villain iso-min-raises to $50, and it folds back to me.

Here's my thought process at this point: I can pretty much eliminate sets and combos of 2 pair from his range given his inviting positional min raise and given the fact that there were 2 players to act after him on the BTN and in the SB who would be given proper implied odds to call his minraise with str8/flush type hands.

I believe Villain is tight enough to simply limp something like KQ or J10 in late position and I believe him capable of minraising a huge drawing hand like 78 to invite an overcall from the blinds and pot control on the turn, assuming I automatically check the turn to the flop aggressor OOP like 90% of most players.

My question is if there is a rationale for not repopping the Villain and commiting yourself fairly deep against his range? Does my action change if I get an overcaller on the BTN or SB? Any comments appreciated.

Hero tanks for over a minute and reraises to $200

Outcome of the hand will be revealed later

Flat. Your raise turns your hand into a complete semi-bluff, and you do not want to chase a lower flush draw out of the hand.

Against another flush draw, if you both miss, you win a VAST majority of the time. If you hit, you stack him a vast majority of the time. You want another flush draw to stick around.

And if he has better than a pair of 9s, he is very unlikely to go away and you are getting your money in as a flip or a slight underdog, unless you think he has TT-QQ and is capable of folding. Which is turning your hand into a bluff, fwiw.

If he has worse than a pair of 9s, he is burning money. You can call the turn with your hand if he continues his bluff, and any good bluff cards to fire on the river (A or a diamond) hit your range enough to call.

Let's assume that instead of minrasing the flop, he pops it to $75-$85. How would this change the dynamics of my response?

It depends. If you place him on a flush draw again or a bluff, my response is the same.

If you place him on a big hand and feel he will pay you if you hit your draw, I would flat.

If you place him on a better hand BUT think he is capable of folding, I would re-raise. (ie, you think he is "raising for information")

And finally, if you place him on a set and think that he will shut down on a diamond, I would just fold.

The only problem is your reraise size go to abput $125 there thereabouts.

If you have elimated sets and two pair combos, as you have said, I'd min-raise him straight back again.

I think Hero should flat, planning to check/call a modest bet if the turn bricks. Hero would check call a bigger turn bet if he makes 3 nines or aces up. Hero should bet out on a turned flush.

The nut flush draw plus top pair is a coin flip vs an over pair or two pair, Hero is well ahead of any other draw. Hero is a big dog vs a set. This situation looks like an easy raise on the surface, but there are problems.

Hero is out of possition in a limped pot playing with significant stacks. If he raises and gets called, the turn betting is going to be rough (assuming Hero doesn't make his hand). Hero is not pot committed and might be forced off the hand if Villain pushes on a turn brick.

People often misread paitience for weak-tight. I wonder how much fold equity Hero has here, I expect Villain thinks his hand is strong (though he'd be wrong about a combo-draw). The table could be weary of getting runover and looking for a fight with Hero.

There are going to be times that villain outplays Hero due to his possitional advantage. This hand looks like it could be one of those times. Lets take a cheap card on the turn and see what happens.

DrStrange

Flop is very interesting because you can do all 4 of these actions and they can all be correct:

You can check, with the intention to call a bet.
You can check, with the intention of raising a bet.
You can lead, with the intention of 3betting/getting it in.
You can lead, with the intention of just calling a raise.

Interesting!

Board: 9s 6d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.394% 57.38% 00.01% 22155 5.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 42.606% 42.59% 00.01% 16445 5.00 { TT-99, 66, 44, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Td8d, Td7d, 96s, 8d7d, 8d5d, 7d5d, 7d3d, 64s, 5d3d, 5d2d, 3d2d, 64o }


Vs possible raising hands that get it in with you.

If you think that he will have a lot of diamond combos in his hand along with 2pair/sets. there is nothing wrong with getting it in.

You are leveling yourself. Tight old guys will have a set often in this spot. They aren't trying to give people the wrong odds; they're trying to make sure they get action.

Sounds like he got exactly what he wanted from you.

So to answer your question, that would be the rationale for not re-raising. Sets are a huge part of this guy's range when he min-raises. Depending on exactly how sure I was that he had a set, I might just call the flop hoping for implied odds on a diamond.

Now that is not to say that that's the only thing going on in this hand. Maybe he doesn't have a set; maybe he's capable of making this play on a worse draw (tight old guys usually aren't) or just an overpair (possible). I'm not saying calling is necessarily the best play, but if I did just call, the above would be why.