Hey everyone, don't post on here often but one hand had me confused a few sessions ago. Villain is a pretty solid reg in his mid 50's and we have a bit of history in this session where he 4-bet me a few hands earlier and I folded. Any help is greatly appreciated.

I'm in the CO ($1500) with A8, with four limpers before me I limp as well. Villain ($2000) is in the SB and completes.

Flop: 679

5 checks, guy in MP bets $20, I raise to $60 where Villain flats in the SB and MP calls.

Turn: 6

Villain leads out for $150, MP folds, I call

River: 3

Villain bets $350, I fold

My main question is on the turn. My thinking is that with such a draw heavy flop he is 4 betting 2 pairs and sets on the flop. When he flats on the flop and then leads on the turn had me very confused. Does villain ever have a boat here? Is this a standard fold on the turn? Any of you like raising the turn? With him being SB there are so many hands that he could have.

Thanks

I think he has 6x here a lot, boats sometimes. You are right, he should have 3-bet flop with most sets and 2-pairs. He could have flatted bottom 2. He could also have been incorrectly trapping flopped straight (seen it happen in similar situation the other day). I think folding turn is best, simply because we don't know if we are good if we hit.

I'm not sure what 6x he could have unless it were 86. But Setsy is right, I think I fold the turn here, because it's not clear you are good if you hit, and I'm also not sure you get paid off if you do hit and are good.

It seems a lot more likely that he has a hand like 6-7 then say Ace-6. With a bet and a raise, does he just call with only a 6 on the flop? I don't see how (unless he had 6-8 which takes away a lot of your outs). At the same time, by raising you are representing a hand that beats 2 pairs (perhaps a straight) which is probably why he would just call on the flop. His donk bet on the turn is a bit confusing but perhaps he did it because he knew you would call drawing dead or would have difficulty laying down a straight.

Aside from that, you really aren't getting the right price to call the $150 on the turn. Perhaps you can argue due to implied odds, but I would argue that the implied odds are negative here (ie if you hit, you are more likely to lose even more money)

The more I think about it, the more it kind of looks like 8-10 or even 5-8. If he did fill up on the turn why would he lead into me after I just 3bet the flop. It seems like a "see where I'm at bet" which is why I thought about raising the turn. It's pretty hard for him to call OOP unless he has a boat here. Too spewy to raise the turn? I agree with calling may be negative implied odds though because it's a sick spot if I hit and he raises the river

Grunch

If the table is at all tight, I would probably raise this hand pre-flop. If you can expect to get more than three callers then ide just limp along like you did. Whether or not I raise here or not also depends on who the limpers are. At the room I play at, I usually know at least half of the players.

As played, I would make it a bit bigger OTF, say $75 or $80. OTT I think I might just muck this. The combination of the bad turn card and the SB's action are really gross. If you flat his turn bet and then hit and he keeps firing, would you raise the river? His line smells like boat/straight. One won't pay you if you hit a flush OTR and if hes got a boat, you will be the one paying.