Been sitting at the table for about 45 minutes, haven't been too involved so far. Hero is in his early 20's.

During the action, I noticed villain in the upcoming hand was playing ultra conservative with what seemed like an uncomfortably deep stack for him. In a previous hand, he held T::7:: on a 98K::6 board. He fired the turn in position. Called by one player. River was an off-suit J. It's checked to him and he checks back, then says he was worried about QT suited.

A little while later, we played in this hand:

UTG limps.
Some folds.
Villain raises to $20 from CO+2. This is his first PFR, My thoughts: I definitely have him on AA-JJ here, I really think he's the kind of player that limps AK or any pair TT or worse here. Yea.......
CO+1 calls.
Hero has 44 in the cutoff and calls.
Button calls.
SB calls.
BB calls.
UTG calls.

Flop ($140): 456
SB checks
BB checks
UTG checks
Villain bets $100
CO+1 folds.
Hero calls. My thoughts: It's a potentially beautiful flop for our hand, we have villain right where we want him. But lots of action behind us and we are vulnerable to straights and higher sets, so calling to re-evaluate turn.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.
UTG folds.

Turn ($340): K
Villain checks.
Hero bets $150. My thoughts: King looks like it scared him, so I'm putting him on a likely QQ or JJ hand here. Don't want to blow him off the hand, so I settled on $150.
Villain calls.

River ($640): J
Villain goes all in.
Hero has ~$600 behind and villain has him covered.

I stare at him and go into the tank, looking pretty disgusted with the scenario that has unfolded here. I donno what to think, my thought process... he never does this with QQ for sure. KK makes perfect sense, classic way an amateur would play that hand in this spot. JJ makes pretty good sense, I could see him making the call on the turn with JJ. The only hand I can beat is AA. And I'm really debating with myself, trying to figure out if he'd do this with AA here. Maybe? But even if I'm confident enough to put AA in his range here, do I have the right price to call? Barely?

Eventually, he starts talking to me. He says something along the lines of, "Just fold, save your money." My first instincts were that this was the kind of thing people (especially amateurs) say when they want you to fold. But as I'm looking at him, he's only 2 seats away from me, he looks incredibly comfortable. And it actually seemed liked he was being a genuinely nice guy (he seemed like one), who thought he had the best hand and wanted to warn some genuinely nice young kid about the situation he was in. So I started wondering, would he be acting this way if he had AA here?

Then he says, "I'll show you either way." And I told him I didn't care about that, which was true.

A little bit later I finally came to my decision, and I will reveal that later. Thoughts on all streets are always appreciated

Edit: Btw villain is a white guy in his 40s/50s

Waxing a bit too eloquent.

KK most if the time although 45 min isn't enough time to truly know he's a super nit.

Is this for sale on Amazon?

This is a fold. He has to be spazzing a decent amount here with AA for this to be a call and his description and line taken do not suggest spazz.

fold, a guy who checks behind 2nd nuts on river doesn´t all of the sudden lose his mind here with AA. KJ is out of the question, he would probably never cbet.

Fold. This is kk or jj 90+% of the time. The other times is just a spaz with something like aa, ak.

I think this is KK more than JJ, but could be either 90%

i think this is 78 a good portion of the time too. he could easily raise with these; maybe he likes the hand because he won a big pot with it two years ago, maybe it´s his lucky number, maybe he saw dwan doing it, maybe he felt like doing it etc...

i´m not even sure he would bomb JJ/KK in this spot. hero could have a straight, right? we withnessed his incredibly nitty check behind, no reason to go for "thin" value in this spot, right?

he is super-polarized. if he is ever capable of bluffing allin otr, you gotta snap him off, but i don´t think he is.

I raise the flop. Old guys don't c-bet nearly as often as they should, so a c-bet is indicative that a flop b/f def isn't coming from him. It's easy to get more in at this point without losing him.

Grunch: Horribad flat OTF. Raise it up and look to get it in against his obv overpair.

AP, fold river. Only hand in his range we beat is AA, and given V's MUBS, KK is WAYY more likely.

Which is why you want to raise it up on the flop. You're never escaping from a bigger set, so start getting it in.

I'm in with the raise flop crowd too.

I think the reason the River decision is so difficult for you is because you misplayed your hand. If you're that confident on his hand range with his preflop raise, then the only reason you are calling him with 44 is on the chance you can flop a set and stack him. The fact that you also had four players to act behind you on the flop with a drawy board makes your call that much worse.

The only reason to play your hand the way you did is if you are confident that you can outplay him on later streets, which in this case means folding your hand.

Glad I'm not completely losing my mind just yet.

it really sucks that he won a big pot with the wrong thought process completely. What hand does he expect to call the flop and bet turn that can possibly call his river shove that he beats?

lol @ results/hand after...some people just are that bad.

rage folding here overwhelming majority of the time. tbh i dont even think he was attempting to value bet river i think it was:

WELL I HAVE ACES AND...

Grunch:

I call because his line makes zero sense.

I don't see him check/calling KK on the turn. If he was worried about the straight, why wouldn't he check river? And if he was stacking off anyway, he's shipping back on the turn.

Call.

rofl I needed that

I donno. This can be true, and I make the call vs. other players. But some amateurs tend to panic when they hit the nuts. Spike the K with KK, check/call because they're afraid to blow away the action with anything else. Then bomb the river because they want max value and they don't want me checking back. He's not even thinking about the straight... these kinds of players can't imagine ever being unlucky enough to be up against a straight here... they're entitled to win with every big pair let alone a set.

Dunno why you didn't raise flop for value? Also what kind of range does V rep when he shoves river? misplayed the the hand for you both..
I would snapcall the river, knowing that more than half the times I will be good in these spot. He's line of b c/c shove doesn't feels like a monster on these board, and he's speech makes it even more easy for hero to call.
but that's just me..