2/5 - Snoqualmie Casino, WA

Hero (button) $210 - taking a shot at a bigger game and playing fairly tight. Lost half of stack an orbit ago, showing down top two against bottom set. Has been picking spots to make moves very sparingly, not bothering to c-bet on flops that have been unlikely to hit me.

Villain (SB) $200 - angry, middle aged, middle eastern guy. Not psycho, but he definitely seems to have some gamble in him. Started loose with his $300 buy-in until a hand in which he aggressively bet his FD from position on the flop. He bombed another barrel after picking another three outs on the turn. Then, he shoved the river for $160 (a little more than 1/2 psb) with his busted draw against a and got snap called by two pair. The river bet seemed unwise to me.

After that, he tightened up a good deal but remained quite aggressive. (He may have been card dead.) He has been angry and muttering under his breath in a thick foreign accent.

Pre: Folds to a MP player who limps. Folds to hero who looks down and sees AA and raises to $20. ($20-$25 standard for table with $25 getting a good deal more folds.) Villain calls in SB, and the BB folds.


Flop ($60): Q98

V checks. MP checks. Hero bets $45. V calls, and MP folds.


Turn ($150): 7

I was watching villain watch the flop. He visibly reacted to the 7 but the reaction was somewhat delayed. (Thoughts on this?) Villain then shoves for his remaining $135.

Villain says to hero, "If you have the Ace, go ahead and call." He doesn't fully turn to look at me. He doesn't seem relaxed, but then he hasn't been relaxed the whole time at the table.

Hero has a redraw against all except the 1 combo straight flush possibility. What range can we put V on? What types of hands, if any, would villain be hanging around with OOP to bluff the scare card? Would this type of villain
ever shove with q-x here?

I think I call. Him shoving and giving you a chance to fold makes me think he's less likely to have you crushed. All you need is 50% equity and I feel like V here a lot of the time has a lot of draws. Q with K of perhaps, or Q with 10, something like that.

You don't need 50% equity to call.

I can see villain playing made flushes this way (especially little ones) but would probably weight his range more towards 2p or pair+FD type hands.

Can't run the combos on my phone but I'm guessing this is a call, especially if he occasionally has like T9 or J9 with a spade, which would be spazzy but possible.

He's calling $135 to win $272. That means he needs to win 49.6% of the time here to make this a profitable call. Isn't that the same thing as saying he needs 50% equity? I'm probably wrong, so what would the correct way to phrase that then be?

No. Hero can call $135 to win $285. He needs to win 32% of the time.

Js10s can be heavily discounted IMO as villain surely would have checked it. Hero's As blocks a little more than half the flushes, so a straight should be a little more likely. (Many more combo's but less likely to call pre)

The redraw should get hero half way there as he will be drawing thin a less than half the time. Hero needs to be ahead already >20% or so.

The question is how many pair+draw or air hands are calling preflop and flop, considering that V has only 40bb's left, has been losing, and is OOP?

"Pre: Folds to a MP player who limps. Folds to hero who looks down and sees AA and raises to $20. ($20-$25 standard for table with $25 getting a good deal more folds.) Villain calls in SB, and the BB folds."

Oh, that's because you didn't say whether the MP player called or folded after limping. But, your math is still a bit off:

Pre:
MP $5 limp
Hero $20 Raise
SB $20 call
BB $5 fold
MP $15 call
------------------
$65 - Pre

Flop:
Hero $45 bet
V $45 call
------------
Total Pot: $155

Turn:
V shoves $135
-----------------------
Calling $135 to win $290

135/290 = 46.5% equity, not 32%

MP folded flop per above thread.

Lol by your logic you would need 100% equity for an even money bet to just break even.

My opinion of possible hands:
K, Q/Q
Q, J/J/J/10/10/10
Q, J/J/J, J
Any J10's except J10

??

I feel like V would just lead flop or c/r all 2 pair hands.
Trips I don't feel are likely since he didn't raise pre and flat called flop instead of leading or c/r

Instead of "loling" how about you answer the question about the correct way to phrase it? Since I said I was probably wrong and asked what the right way to say it was. Or is not being condescending too tough for you?

135/(290+135)=~32%

Try to think about the logic behind the equation. You stick $135 in, and $425 come out. You only "win" $290 on your call.

For some reason I keep thinking it's sticking $135 in to win $290. But you have to add the last $135 you would call to the pot total as well. Thanks. So you must win 32% of the time here to make it profitable. Also stated as, "you need 32% equity to call"?

Please don't take offense, but I am going give you a piece of advice that will save you a lot of money. Log a good number of hours playing limit poker. Bad decisions won't hurt you much as you figure things out. Learn how to count outs, calculate odds, and the probabilities of common situations. When you can do these without thinking, give no limit a try.

Well appreciate the advice and no offense taken, but I'm a feel player, even though I can't state the exact amount of equity you have (which now I can), did I not decide calling with aces, which is probably the right call? Also - the possible hands I gave you, are those not the most likely hands to show up here - showing that I can calculate the probabilities of common situations? Additionally, you had stated it was $285, when in actuality it was $290. Both were simple mistakes.

Call pretty quickly. We have a draw to the nut flush and we started the hand with only 40bb.

After a limp, 20 is a terrible raise size. Go to 30 pf, pot the flop and shove/call any turn seems ok. Don't take a shot and sit w/ 40 bb's either.

there is this thing in live poker called rake.

you should post less and read more for a while.

get pokerstove (or whatever similar software the cool kids are using these days), plug in a range for villain, and see if you have 32% vs that range. if so, call. if not, tweak villain's range until you have the 32% you need, then call. jk there.. haha.

to the guy not getting the math... buy and study Poker Math That Matters by Owen Gaines!