2/5, $1k effective, 9 handed. Hero has been at the table for an hour and a half and villain has played literally one hand where hero raised JTs OTB $25 over a limp, called villain's $100 3 bet, then folded to a $65 flop bet on a K83r board. Villain is clearly a reg.*

OTTH

We open T♣️ T♥️ UTG +1 $20 and villain in LJ 3 bets to $65 (lovely, he probably views me as a fish) and only hero calls.*

Flop ($137): Q♠️ 9♣️ 8♦️. Hero checks, villain bets $95 and hero calls. Should we throw in a x-r since this board isn't the greatest for his 3 betting range and we block the nuts? Idk, I wasn't trying to do anything fancy vs what seemed like a nitty pro OOP.*

Turn ($327): 5♣️. Hero checks, villain bets $400. What does this turn overbet mean? If we don't call TT, what hands do we have in our calling range?

I'd rather x/r the flop given this texture favors us considerably.

As played, I think we can safely fold. We can have some slowplayed sets/straights from the flop and I'd rather call with a hand like QJ.

Donk lead flop. We have more JTs/88/99 than Villain.

As played, he probably thinks you are capped since you most likely XR your strongest hands OTF. So he is incorrectly overbetting his AA/KK.

We can make a mental note and exploit this tendency by always calling our monsters OTF here.

Fold flop

If V isn’t a pro I fold flop.

OP: have you been opening a lot and/or does the V have any reason to believe that you’d open light UTG+1?

I'd suggest not overthinking this spot. If he thought you were a fish, probably would be playing more than 2 pots in 1.5 hrs. These 2 hands were in his favor, fold as played. Fold flop.

His line is very strong on this board and vs his sizing you don't have to continue with a lot of hands. Your hand is an easy turn fold.

The worst hand I'd call is a top pair + gutter like QJ. I'd fold naked AQ,KQ. You'll also look to call any pair + flush draw or slowplayed 2pair+ you had on the flop. Basically you want additional equity to go along with your bluff catcher.

Flop is well played. You can look to lead out on this board but I wouldn't pick TT. It makes the hand hard to play OOP and doesn't accomplish much. If you were looking to lead out and run a multi-street bluff or XR bluff I'd consider T9s because it has better equity to improve and blocks more nutted hands.

I fold the flop.

If there is any chance he'll fold AA/KK, go for it, but most players don't do that, especially vs. someone they see as a fish.

As played, I'm definitely folding the turn.

+1 to fold flop and turn

Shove turn or fold

Idk what goes on in villain's head, but I have been opening more frequently than anyone

There's some great advice in this thread. Andees - why are you folding AQ here?

I think the problem with T9s is we are just never going to have it.

1) It it a low frequency open PF @ UTG+1
2) It is an even lower frequency defend PF vs a LJ 3bet.

I think donking TT here accomplishes a lot.

1) We put AK in a terrible spot and possibly fold out 6 outs of equity -which is a win.

2) We freeze hands like AA/KK into mostly calling the flop AND set the price to see a turn card.

3) We leave our range uncapped over a standard x/c line - which will allow us to profitably bluff more on later streets.

I think it's probably very close but I'd personally lean towards a fold. He's repping better than AQ for value (maybe the same hand) so our hand is essentially a bluff catcher with few outs to improve. The difference between a plus or minus ev turn call could be the extra outs you have. QJ has 9 outs to improve vs many of villain's value hands compared to AQ which has 5.

He bets 400 into 327 so we need about 36% equity to breakeven. Lets say AQ has 38% vs his betting range (made up number). Easy call right? No not necessarily. The hand isn't over. In a multi street betting game of nuts/air vs bluff catcher, the bluff catcher will lose EV on the next street when villain re-polarizes into us. I think this concept is relevant in this hand. Of course the exception is if you somehow know he will bluff too much and you own him on the river by always calling down.

Flop x/r yolo

Would we really donkbet our strongest hands like QQ/99/88/JTs here? AK is probably checking back this flop anyway.

A solver does. A regular human who hasn't looked extensively at donking ranges? Probably not. I'd imagine developing proper donk ranges and proper turn overbet ranges would make you a nightmare to play against and massively increase your strat EV.

However, unless you got all the time in the world to run SIMs and also have the ability to adjust properly at a table, you wouldn't be able to develop them properly and most likely will end up spewing/doing it wrong. And it would also take a very large time commitment for either of them.

Once you understand how donking leading works. You can replicate it on any board. But you need to know a few things first:

1) Your own ranges
2) Villains most likely ranges
3) How the flop interacts with those ranges

You're right. AK is a high frequency check on this board. Even more of a reason to donk lead - I'm all set with letting AK free roll its 6 outs against me by checking back this flop.

This is how Linus became the best in the world. He moved to some foreign country where he didn't know anyone and just brought his laptop. 6 years later he is a millionaire and the GOAT.