Game is 2/5, $700 max at Encore Boston. Hero's first visit to the new place, Sunday afternoon game. Game is pretty loose passive with Hero being the only 3! pre in his two hours in the game. Hero's image is pretty solid although he has been card dead for most of the session and has shown down many hands. Hero is effective stack at $825.

Villain in the hand is a youngish African American guy, very loose pre and have seen him make some large bets when he sense weakness post. Running well and has over $2000 at this point and seems like he has been playing since Saturday night.

OTTH

Game has been in the much for the last few rounds so Hero suggests a round of straddles and everyone agrees. This is the third straddle hand of the lap and happens to be Hero's straddle.

2 folds, V limps for $10 in MP, HJ and Button call, SB folds, BB calls. Hero looks down at AJ and makes it $50 to go. Maybe a tad on the small side, but didn't necessarily want to fold out the field, so went a bit smallish. V snap calls without any thought and the rest fold, so HU to the flop

Flop ($127 after max rake)

724

Hero checks and V quickly bets $75. First Q...OOP with a really good draw (NF + 2 overs), does anyone lead this board HU? My thoughts were I didn't want to face a raise on a board where V has a clear range advantage, so I thought checking my entire range made the most sense but certainly willing to hear any opposite thoughts.

Hero calls the $75 and we go to the turn.

Turn ($277)

7245

Hero checks. Villain quickly bets $600 ! V then proceeds to stare Hero down attempting to look strong and even tips the dealer $8 as he assumes Hero is folding for sure. This sizing is not what Hero expected, certainly not from a value hand like a set, 2 pair or a rando 86/63. But I am really not sure what it actually represents.

Hero in the tank trying to decide how many legit outs he may have. 7 clean club outs for certain, perhaps 3 3's and maybe even 3 Aces and 3 Jacks are good if V is simply pushing a small overpair to the board (99/88...dont think TT+ as V likely raises those pre first in OR limp RR with very big pairs after I raise my straddle). So I estimate 12-13 outs total.

Pot is laying me $877 to call $600 or ~1.5-1 so I need to have 42% equity to make it a 0 EV call which I do not have.

Real question is, how many of you guys think this could be a non-paired lower flush draw? Or just a pair with no additional draw below Jacks (so I have 15+ outs)?

I appreciate any comments on this one and will see what discussion develops before revealing what I ended up doing.

Thanks,

Shorn

Just fold. Even if all your outs are clean, you dont have the right odds to call. And some of your odds might not be live (sets, 2p, overpair).

Fold, gg, next hand, CHIPS!

Pre is way too small and checking the flop is silly/bad

I'm not sure how you deduced that villain has a range advantage. Perhaps a nuts advantage (as he can have sets which you likely do not) but you DEFINITELY have a range advantage because you have all overpairs that he cannot have.

I'm definitely leading this flop for about $75 and gii vs. a raise. Facing a raise is not a bad thing when you're holding a massive draw. Betting will deny equity to random overcards that will make up a large portion of V's preflop limp-call range (KQ, QT, KT, T9, etc). If you are checking it should be with the intention of check-raising.

By taking such a passive line, by the turn you've allowed V to blow you off a high-equity hand. Just fold turn at this point.

More pre. Bet flop - agree that V has board/range advantage but I think it's better to take the lead here uncapped with the NFD. I'm not sure it's quite as clear-cut as Matzah_ball thinks, since the straddle sorta makes us perceived wider than we'd normally be in this situation as PFR. But I defer to his superior knowledge.

You have to admire V's style, tipping the dealer before the hand is over and giving you the Mr. T "Clubber Lang" stare-down.

The math says "fold" but the scenario says "call".

Am I missing something? How is it that a limp-call range is stronger on this board than the PFR? Sure, he can have all the sets, but that's only 9 combos. He has no (or shouldn't have unless he's terrible) 2-pair combos on this board, and we steal 2 outs from his open-ended 5-6.

We have all overpairs which is 42 combos, and we can probably have top set here, because if you're raising AJ, you're probably raising 77.

More pre

cbet flop, I disagree he has a clear range advantage this board hits no one and you have all the premiums in your range and he doesn't. How strong is his range really here, a pair of sevens is probably the best hand he can have here and he will fold that to barrels. You're almost never getting raised on this flop for value and if so you have outs.

Turn is hideous and goes to show what happens when you take a hand like this and play passively, they can do spazzy stuff and you're left guessing.

OK well...looks like I totally butchered this one then as everyone so far thinks this is an auto flop c-bet. I guess my thought was my hand has a lot of draw equity so do I want to lose that if I bet and he raises big? Being HU is important though and like all of you said, I have all the overpairs in my range and he only has 88 and maybe 99.

And yeah by the turn I had played so passively that I was totally lost for the most part.

Nasty spot. I don't think our hand is strong enough to make it $50 pre. There's $52 in the pot before our raise and we are probably seen as raising wider than we are since we are the only one 3 betting. I have zero problems with taking down 10 BB pre here, that's printing money. Why do we want a caller so badly? We are out of position to 3 of the 4 limpers as well. I'd probably go 65-75 pre and definitely cbet our uncapped range with this much equity. On this board V can have sets but 22 and 44 should really be folding if we size pre up. AP I probably just call flop because I don't think our x/r is getting through based on V and Hero descriptions. If we miss the turn we are OOP in a bloated pot with Ace high and our turn double barrel will probably be pot committing after the x/r. AP I probably fold turn. You're getting deep into meta if you're making a soul read for stacks here. As others have said you have to have some draws in Vs range to be able to continue here without it being spew and I doubt any of us can range V better than you can. You were reluctant to give him flush draws so I'm folding turn and feeling pretty good about it. Funny part of this hand to me is how we played opposite with regard to our reads. We know V calls wide pre but give him a discount pre instead of exploiting. We know V oversizes bets vs weakness but we take a weak passive line. We set this up perfectly if we had a monster but we only have a draw.

Yup although not funny for me. I seem to be doing this a lot lately and can't figure out why. Just bad play being driven by the losing streak, lack of confidence, and God knows what else.

Everything everyone said is totally right. Only decision it seems was Ok was to call flop as played.

We've all been there man, keep your foot on the pedal and barrel those draws out of position. FWIW I think you're getting raised there very seldom and half the time it does happen he has a draw and you have him smothered.

Board is loosely connected with flush drw....hits a lot of limpers, no?

"Hits" is a relative term. Sure, the limper has more 7s than we do, but we have all overpairs, so our range actually wants him to have a lot of 7s because we can put pressure on this weaker range (ie. barrel flop and turn and get folds from his weak 1-pair hands). No one should have 2-pair here, and as I said before, sets account for only 9 combos, whereas our overpairs are more than 40 combos. Also, we would LOVE V to have a draw here

Funny is probably the wrong word choice there but I think you got my point. I know you're a strong player so maybe I was more surprised about our line than amused. I'm on a nasty downswing myself, keep grinding man. I'm sure you'll turn it around soon.

Grunch

Pre is too small, but it worked out. The only reason I check this flop is to check/raise.

As played, just fold unless you really want to gamble and losing won't tilt you.

Butchery of hand confirmed.

Raise more preflop and bet this flop. Check/calling hoping to hit outs is drastically worse than betting with those same outs.

Shake it off...dont do it again...move on.

/grunch
Are you sure you don't have a range advantage? Villian will have like double the sets that you do but still its <5% of his range on the flop, you have all the overpairs and pocket 7s...so I would bet like 2-3 pot on the flop...I don't know any flush draw that I would iso out of the BB/Straddle here that I would Check...I guess Ac5c and Kc9c? I think you may be confusing it with say you open EP (with a similar tight range) and get cold-called by competent TAG BTN and heads-up to the flop of 924 where you can check your entire range if you want.

as for the turn just let it go...yah you get bluffed here sometimes but you also have sets that you decided to trap the flop with and Ax3x sometimes that you decided to iso with.


ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - 7c2c4d
PLAYER_1 AA-77,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx
PLAYER_2 77-22,AJ-AT,KQ-KT,QJ-QT,JT,Ax9x-Ax2x,Kx9x-Kx5x,Qx9x-Qx5x,Jx9x-Jx7x,Tx9x-Tx7x,9x8x-9x7x,8x7x-8x6x,7x6x-7x5x,6x5x,5x4x
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AA-77,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax...	61.0466%	60.0390%	2.0152%	360234	12091
77-22,AJ-AT,KQ-KT,QJ...	38.9534%	37.9458%	2.0152%	227675	12091

Nope, V does not have a range advantage. If it were 876cc you can consider a check but not here.

Flop clear bet.

Surprisingly, PIO only checks 10% of the time here. So yeah, we aint at a range disadvantage.

AP I actually call. Don't hate a fold though needing this much equity. Vs a lone pear you have 39-40% equity (shockingly) and if he ever has a complete airball or a draw your hand is absolutely crushing him. Plus I'm sure it gives you a gambly AF image and that's easy to take advantage of.

Bigger pre. Not really sure why you don't want people to fold. Winning all the dead money without a showdown is more than fine, you have A high. Realistically, even if you made it bigger they wouldnt fold anyway and call with worse, so either way win-win.

Grunching … fold as played, may have clean outs, but calling and losing may be more costly.

Pre - $70 pre - dead $ is good.

Flop - I'd bet/call, don't think that board hits a limp/call range at all. Maybe a few suited aces (A7/A4/A2). $60ish.

Thanks to everyone. I really appreciate the constructive criticism as it helps me to get back on track.

I actually did call as I just thought V would never play a true value hand this way so did not think he was strong at all. I figured I had between 15-18 outs total, just wasn't sure which. And as Minatorr states, calling when at a ~6% equity disadvantage (36% vs 42% needed, I calculated this call "cost" around $36 in EV to potentially win a $1450 pot) from what you need and advertising a hugely gambly image does have its advantages.

As it turns out my read was right, but the river bricked (K) and V won the hand with 76. It is definitely a fold for math purposes and part of the reason I likely called was (and I absolutely know this is LOLstupid) "I was due" to hit a big hand. Wrong way to play especially in the midst of a massive downswing I know but I am human and emotion got the best of me here.

Anyway, I realize I could have played this hand much differently/better and avoided this situation altogether (more pre, lead flop dumbass YOU have the range advantage!) and that is what I will mostly take away from all the comments.

So thanks again to all and keep up the great work. This forum is awesome when we all remain constructive.

Shorn

Hang in there Shorn!

Do you think the straddle played any part in this hand? Did V think you might have been wider than you'd normally be raising pre-flop?

It is an interesting Q and I am not sure. He was pretty loose passive pre for the most part and he limped and totally snap called my PF raise so clearly he didn't think I was incredibly strong nor did I think he had any big hand. Mostly I think my passive play post convinced him he could push me off of overpairs. I still think his huge overbet on the turn is weird though as it screams "I WANT YOU TO FOLD PLEASE" so it generally will only be called by hands that beat it and by big draws (from donkey's like me who are OK lighting $36 in EV on fire fpr the chance to look gambly and win a huge pot ).

Nice play and great situational awareness from V, love the overbet too.

It’s so easy to trap him now though eg 3bet AK and cc an Axx flop repping KK QQ