Played at Harrah's Chester:
I've been playing tighter than I normally do, but i was catching some cards so i probably didnt look like a rock. New player at table having a bad run of cards.

Earlier hand versus villain: I raise w/ KQo somewhere in MP and check a A J x monotone board and float the flop on him when he leads for a sizable amount of the pot. I check turn and river (shoudlve led river for 3/4 pot in hind sight, but thats not the hand im concerned with) when board pairs J and A on turn and river respectively, free showdown we both have KQ.

Villain was fairly tight and his KQ play kind of shocked me a bit i was expecting a counterfeited mid pair hand when he didnt fire turn or river.

To new hand:
Sittin on about 90BBs, I have him covered in the SB.

Villain raises to 3 BB in MP some other dude cold calls, i 3bet out the SB to 11BB with AA (one diamond one black, cant remember) hoping it'll look like im trynig to squeeze/steal with a lower end of my range, villain flats other dude folds.

Flop (26BB)
5 7 8 monotone
I lead 19BB, villain thinks for a second a calls.

Turn: 10 of doesnt matter but i had the Ace of doesnt matter (64 BB)
I decide to commit and lead 40BB, Villain has an out of body experience or something because he tanks for ****ing ever.

I limit villains range to hands weighted towards bigger calls to flat the PF 3bet. maybe some other lower pairs, but more likely JJ+, KQ, JT etc

I'm playing towards the higher end of his PF range hoping he has an overpair. I'm forcing him to commit on the turn with pretty much all his hands since he'll be left with 20BB no matter the river.

I thought about pot controlling but I figured since villain didnt flop a set (i would expect him to reraise there with a set maybe TPTK, or pair + draws)

Villain can put me on overcards easily here as i'd play AK on the flop like this, and depending upon circumstances fire a 2nd barrel on the turn.

I expect him to raise his range on the flop that would draw to a bigger nut hand by the river. Because he tanked forever I assumed over pair, maybe Jacks, maybe JTs that didnt catch the flush draw on the turn.

Checking turn would allow me to continue the story that i was squeezing with a weaker hand or something like AK/AQ that whiffed the flop. he knows im capable of floating a flop, and i'm sure he might do the same with overcards hoping i'll check turn or river.

When villain tanks forever I figure he has some kind of piece of the board, picked up a draw or draw+pair type hand (T9). Maybe picked up just the flush draw.

Dude sounded like a regular as he knew the floor fairly well and some of the other players. My estimation is he is an average regular having a rough session.

Questions
Am I losing value by not checking the turn here? / How awful is giving the free card here? b/w Does it open up his bluffing range on the river enough to try and get more value there? Or is it too risky to give a free card given possible range?

How about bet size on turn? Less? More? Player didnt seem like a larger bet would get him to spew imo.

I guess a decent alternate line here is overbet flop and if villain calls i can probably get him to stack off on the turn. Thoughts?

I think no matter what line you take on the turn you are going to look strong. So just bet and hope he gets married to his hand.

Thats what i did, im wondering about amounts i guess and if there's a better alternative line such as overbet flop to say 33BB, making turn pot 92Bb leaving villain only 46 BB giving him a pleasant 3:1 exact on the turn.

First what's your barreling range how often do you 2 barrel 3 barell 3 bet pre....and when you do how often do you Cbet? Important questions.

Villian how often have you seen him open pre and if yet happened flat a raise what's his range.

From knowing most live regs I'd say his "normal" range is 99-qq never kk+ and only AK....and maybeeeee AQ but rare.

With that said most of his entire range here is pairs. Some of these pairs make for draws on this board and turn.

With that said I think your bet is too large I think 140-160 is perfect. Maybe even less. You'll probably get some raises on their draws if you don't and he flats I think I put him on qq all day and when the river blanks a river shove gets called alot. If he does raise your weakish looking bet ship it for That reason.

Your bet just declared your hand and priced him out IMO.

After you 3 bet I suspect your always cbetting this board....and the turn if you bet like I said it can look like a barrel with alot of hands and doesn't look so thin.

With his range so thin I think its easy to plan your hand accordingly....unless the questions I've asked have some variable answer.

The incoherent range you've declared is too broad and unrealistic...pretty sure 10 9 is never in there and doesn't make any sense

Don't ever do This unless Your playing a total spaz

I didnt have my HUD on so i dont know exact figures but I hadnt 3 barrelled except for once against the weak passive player who will call down with top pair weak kicker when i flopped top two.

I couldnt tell you how often i 2-barreled + villain was fairly new to table and doubt he didnt really look like he was paying much attention to me.

I err on the side of c-betting more than less, especially when checked to. I think i indicated villain hadnt been around that long, so these figures would be meaningless to his assumptions about me. I'm not even sure he witnessed me in many (if any) other hands since he sat down.

That said all these figures are so situationally dependent that i honestly couldnt give you a good idea of them without having some kind of live heads up display.

Villains standard open in the hands i saw was raise, never saw him limp.

I think villain can put me on a somewhat wider range than merely KK+ here though.

Do you really think offering a little over than 2:1 is pricing him out here? I didnt think he was that tight necessarily. However bad enough that i didnt want him to simply call and overestimate implied odds thinking he'll make a ton if he hits a draw. As i stated, i was putting him more on PP than T9/JT however didnt discount those completely just yet.

Why do you say this?

the reason i brought up this line was that an overbet on the flop looks more bluffy and supports the squeeze from the SB w/ weaker holdings and might induce hero calls/moves.

Additionally, playing towards the top of his range and towards his pocket pairs, it gives him decent odds to call drawing close to dead. QQ on the turn getting 3:1 + realizing he's now committed pretty much is a very inviting deal imo.

To.the line you describe def not. For the small percentage this works its not worth it. Fps to be honest.

To a live reg this looks strong and folds alot especially 99 jj.

Why when we know villians range is so thin be voucher to represent a giant hand. Vary rarely in live play do live players take this line for a bluff. Fps again.

Please answers questions as those are more important to this hand than I think you realize. That one hand isn't defining at all.

But on a standard leaving 20 bb behind looks very strong to this Guy and any chance you have of him trying to make a move is out the window. I'd much rather jam turn then bet this amount. Or maybe even c/r turn which sounds sexy now I think about it.

I cant really offer more info on villain's perspective of me because as i said he wasnt around enough to notice. So assumptions must be made based upon the hand i gave previously in the OP with the KQ vs KQ showdown split pot. Which is pretty much his only piece of info besides maybe some raises i made PF that took pots down, which he saw me do maybe about 75% of the hands he witnessed me play. I probably raised IP 3 times and limped once since he sat down.

He has zero knowledge of how i play out the small blind, which is why i opted for a bigger 3 bet. I notice a trend of weaker players making larger 3bets/raises with hands like JJ/QQ because in their head they dont really want to see a flop. So i tried telling that story.

He knows I'm capable of floating A high flops, and therefor knows i didnt c-bet an A high board that i completely whiffed with KQo OOP into 2 people. He knows that at least some %'age of the time i will not attempt to steal on a river when turn is checked behind.

My 2-barrel/3-barrel and C-bet %'ages are pointless if villain has not seen me do this at all, right?

if that's the case, then its not enough information.

If there's not enough information on villain, what is the most optimal line to take against an unknown reg who sees me as an unknown?

You said in your first reply, bet smaller on the turn and you also mentioned c/r turn - check/raise would be great if i felt certain villain would bet, which perhaps a majority of the time he may have. However, is the risk of giving the free card to the river and betting differing amounts based upon the texture of the board by the river preserving the most value?

betting smaller on the turn plays towards the top of his range here, which i feel more comfortable agreeing with only because his range shoudl consist primarily of hands that only have 2 outs to improve save for JJ which has 6 (4 9's + 2 J's).

Obviously a bet of 140 still doesnt offer enough implied odds to make the call since his starting stack was only 450 at this point, had he been deeper, then yes - I'm always betting bigger and offering bad implied odds for him to hit.

So does the 200 dollar bet look stronger or weaker? You said it looks too strong to double barrel here. I would probably double barrel my entire SB squeeze range in this spot against this villain with these stack sizes. I wanted to rep the bottom of my squeeze range, so i bet bigger - that was my thinking. Now the bottom of my squeeze range is undefinable to villain, but maybe he can make some logical assumptions that its wider than KK+. But thats giving him some credit.

So looking at the two alternatives you proposed: bet of 140ish vs c/r.

Check/Raise, if it works, would get more money in for sure and we're going to see a river most likely since any bet at this point would put him at the commitment threshold whether he knows it or not.

I would say the 200 dollar bet gets called maybe 25% of the time meaning he should call all river bets close to 100%.

140 gets called say 75% of the time, and river jam 3 barrel gets called maybe 50% at that point (100% when he hits trips or catches a straight if he has JJ but he only has JJ here a small %age of the time according to the range we've given.

200 * (.25) + 105 * (1.00) = 155
140 * (.75) + 220 * (.50) = 215

So betting smaller is a better choice if these estimations are good.

And im being harsh estimating 50% call on river, that figure could be bigger.

Estimating how often a check/raise gets called is a little more difficult because it would depend on how much he bets when checked to on the turn. I would assume if he's weaker he would bet more since he probably wasnt sure where i was at since he tanked so long (hind sight offers this knowledge). I'm not even sure i can provide really good estimations here.

I'm trying to remember if i saw him make his one hero laydown with the best hand on a wet board before or after this hand and i cannot remember for the life of me, so let's assume it irrelevant for now, but know villain is capable of making heroic laydowns.

Ummm my brain is moosh right now.

But I think I agree with what you said