Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
This is actually probably better than my original advice for AP.
I don’t even dislike a 4! here, but this is where you’ll often find yourself when you do.
Ya and that doesn't necessarily mean you made a mistake. Tens fold here a lot and when they don't, you're still 25% when the money goes in. Sometimes he missed too and you win.
W/R/T shove with 1 SPR, let's go over it.
Let's say he calls off here in a bad case scenario with 99-QQ (and obv top set), and AJs. We have approx 21% equity against this range.
So the times he folds, we win $500 straight away
The times he calls, we have 21% in a $1500 pot investing $500 (EV: -$185)
So if 500*P(F) - 185 * (1 - P(F)) > 0, we make money shoving.
685 * P(F) > 185
P(F) > 0.27
So 27% of his range being folds = We make $
QQ-99, AJs is 23-24 combos. For the sake of this exercise let's say 24
So if he has 24/(1-.27) ~ 33 hand combos, or 9 folds, we make money by shoving. AK and AQs are 12 combos.
And since I don't think this guy will auto-call off 99, shoving starts getting better.
Last edited by jdr0317; 07-10-2019 at 12:05 PM.