Never heard of you,Are you the op, stop with the insults. I only post in threads of people I like. If you don't like me. Put me on ignore.

Stop with the insults?

What insults?

I feel like PB use to post decent advice but I feel like someone hacked his account now. Some math wizard says something and now you live by it? You just post random odds with no explanation and expect everyone to follow it forever?

but what does it mean to have this percentage of equity? Why are we measuring it?

+4million

You're suggesting a c/c on the turn??? Horrible advice IMO, very results oriented... Bet/see what happens. Given his sizing, I think it's an easy call, but the more I've thought about it, I guess it is only marginally profitable since there definitely is some RIO going on here (i.e., 8d peels, is hero really going to check/fold???)... I think OP definitely gave up an edge by folding turn, but probably not an enormous one.

I'm not sure I'm a big fan of the preflop 3bet with KQs. I know you probably have value over villain's continuation range, but it can be an awkward hand to play out of position.

I don't think I like the turn barrel. I think the offsuit 8 is the worst card for you. I think on this particular card I would probably just go into passive mode and c/c. I do want to suggest that instead of blindly barreling any non-k or Q, why not often go for a x/r? This guy is probably floating you fairly often, and based on your read is not going to be super strong often. You're going to put him in some crappy spots with a lot of hands he could have and you have a good amount of equity to back you up in case he calls.

dammit, at 300bb deep C/R OTF is awkward, even in a 3b pot.

I'm talking about the turn.

wtf @ the first page of this thread... lol

I also think you made a big mistake 3betting here. Reasons are fairly obvious.

AP I like the flop bet. Folds out worse, keeps our range wide, and we can call a raise.

On the turn, looks like a clear c/c. Were facing a villain capable of raising the bottom of his range (air), and top (sets/2pair). Were hoping to get a fold from 1 pair type hands in the middle of villains range. The issue is, there isn't much there. The bottom of villains calling range OTF may be some floats, KQ, 34s. The top, J9s, JJ, 99, 33, and the middle: T9s, TT, JTs, JQs-KJs, AJo, QTs.

The only hands I can see him folding from the middle of his calling range OTF is JKs/JQs. Considering we have blockers, that's a very small % of hands. Otherwise, hes sometimes raising the bottom of his range, and always raising the top of his range (and maybe sometime like TT as a semi bluff), and then were is a ****teh situation.

EDIT: I also think that as played, a 3bet shove on the turn would be okay. I suspect some meta game might be going on here as this board smashes villains open/3b call range and whiffs heros oop 3b range. Villain may have a semi bluff/air here more often, making shoving more optimal

If you think c/c is bad, why don't you try explaining why.

Our range is wide open and therefore villain is unlikely to overbet the turn, and may even give us good enough direct odds to call.

I am not going to worry about running into nut flush obviously, and I am going to bet/fold the river if the board pairs.

I think this is the first time I disagreed with you. I understand your line. But tbh idc if I get raised. I'm the aggressor if a guy wants to c/r when I hold straight and flush draws so be it.

It turns our hand face up. Doesn't mean its the wrong play. I double a lot, one of the biggest leaks people have in low stakes is that they don't double enough.

If I have a weak pair with showdown value on a locked down board, plus a read villain c/r a high percentage then ill check since I want to get to the river cheap. But in low stakes aggressive players are uncommon.

Those advocating this is a fold. I can see why poker will always be profitable.

In case you didn't understand me, I was offering an alternative to bet/shove line, which I thought was still superior to bet/fold the turn.

This is 300bb with 100bb capped BI (I assume?)? Bet/shove is way too high variance for such game in LLSNL, and hero is almost certain to go home if he loses this pot to avoid mega tilt.

Bet/shove the turn for 300bb is borderline maniac in LLSNL, IMO.

You posted that 3:1 needs 15% equity. That is pretty bad. If you do not like formulas, think of it like this.

A dollar is split into four parts. If there are three quarters in the pot, and you have to call one quarter you are getting 3:1. Now there are a total of 4 quarters that together make a dollar or 100 cents. 100 is a key number when determining a percentage. One quarter or 25 cents out of 100 cents makes 25% equity needed to get your money back.

Yeah.. looks like a call is +EV.

$275 to win $900.. if we have 12 clean outs and no implied odds, its barely a call.
$275 to win ~$1500 with 9 clean outs is a call, too.

Still prefer c/c here

I don't understand why he is raising a single Jx hand besides JxTd or JQss (3 combos). I am assuming he had 2pair plus on the turn J8 or a set that decided to play it slowly.

Given the strength of our line he could be trying to level us to fold most of our range since our hand is face-up and his floats that turn his hand into a bluff are not super obvious here.
** If you think we have considerable FE just JAM the turn.

Calling and donk betting diamonds turns are hand face up. It does not allow villain to bluff and we fold all hands worse than ours. What hand will b/c turn the lead a diamond. Td is the only diamond I'd be leading and I don't expect the Td or any Tx to get us paid often.

I hate calling but it's probably the best option.

Shoving is going to be -EV unless you think we have fold equity AND villain will stop bluffing if we call. As played I will call and check all rivers besides Tx. I will donk Tx and make it look like I am turning my nut flushdraw into a bluff. I really feel like villain is folding almost all his range if we donk a diamond, and if we check to him he can continue bluffing or value betting himself if he has 2pair+.

Only thing that sucks is that villain can play pretty well since we can't really CRAI the river and expect fold equity (or even CRAI lol...)

I understand what your saying which was my thinking before I listened to the math wizard podcast. I can't remember the formula she used. But she said what I posted. I wish someone knew what they're talking about in this thread.

But to be +EV you need 15% equity in this hand. What ever your saying idc. I'm with the math wizard, she has taught me how to draw. If I listen to my old views and your thinking we will always fold draws.

Someone agreed with me in this thread, he said "stop using mumbo jumbo math",lol.

I thought you were just leveling at first, pokahblows, but its obv you are not at this point.

You obv misheard whatever math wizard on bart's podcast you are talking about. This is simple math here that we are discussing. 15% equity is not +EV here.

And that "someone" was not agreeing with you, friend. They were being so overtly facetious, it was almost over the top.


I lurk way more than I post in strat threads, but I just think it is bad for the strat forums when someone with 4k posts, and who newer posters see as a "reg" they can learn from, posts really bad strategy advice. Repeatedly.

He leveled you, imo.

Well I'm leveling you guys. Keep folding flush and straight draws ott getting 3:1 its the right play, :happy:

A mod can delete all my post in this thread idc. Except the last one. I'm not going to help people who don't want to be helped. Math is overrated anyway. Algebra lol.

No idea who mathwizard is, but this is just wrong. drawing in poker is a function of expressed odds, implied odds, and basic math.

With expressed odds of 1:3, you need 25% equity. Not really sure why this is considered "mumbo jumbo math", its quite simple. A quick wiki search and IQ80+ will suffice.

Note it is possible that you need 15% equity if you have good implied odds. EXAMPLE: Cillain has defined his hand as a straight on the turn. Pot is $100 and he bets $50. You have 9 outs to a flush. You only hit your draw 19% of the time on the river, and expressed odds say you need to hit it 25%. HOWEVER, villain will call a $125 bet on the river if we hit. So, its $50 to win $275. In this situation, we call. We would need 15% equity to call here.

Note, if expressed odds change, so does out required equity. For example, villain is a massive super fish who will call a overbet on the river if we hit. We hold an open-ended straight flush draw. Villain has the nut flush. villain bets $50 into $100. If we hit our straight flush, villain will call a $1000 bet on the river. So, its $50 for us to win $1150. We need 4.16% equity to call, and we have 4.4% equity, thus +ev to call.

So if your facing a pot sized bet otf getting 2:1 with no implied odds, do you fold?

No big deal PB, I am glad you are active on this forum. I guess it jumped out at me at the inability of you to say, your right, my equity was wrong. I still agree with you that you can call with straight and flush draws getting 3:1 because of implied odds. But it is also important to get the numbers right for others to see.

As poker players we need to be open to others ideas and thoughts. Constantly growing, learning, evolving etc. That is why we are here on this site. Just food for thought as we are on this forum and hopefully we can all learn more from each other.

What is our draw, and opponents range? In the following scenario, its a fold:

Board: Kd Jd 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.058% 67.06% 00.00% 47799 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 32.942% 32.94% 00.00% 23481 0.00 { T9o }

Need 33.3% equity, we only have 32.94%