Holy crap! Why are you so hung up on finding weak hands in hero's range? the point is V thinks that the hero will fold everything except for first or possibly second nuts.

We could have AT, 66, 22, a flush, T6 (yeah players with lots of lag v lag history play T6) and I could go on. The point is once he's identified four or six hands that we could possibly have, he knows it's a +EV shove because he believes we're only calling with one or two

I feel like I'm wrong because PokerEz analysis is just so random n stupid and we r on same side. El o el.

Awesome, and I don't even know what PEZ's analysis is.

This kind of thread is almost always polarized between "I got shown a bluff" and "I got shown the nuts, could I have folded".

PEZ thinks that anyone who posts this thread must be insanely bluffable and obviously so, so folding is ridiculous against a good LAG.

Not anyone. But lets be honest, the overwhelming consensus is that this is a pretty easy call, even if it does take you a minute to come to that conclusion. Yet the thread exists.. And i'm not the only one to call out the OP for playing deeper than he should be.

Plus, in subsequent posts he used the word "comfortable" in a way that clearly revealed that the amount of money made him queasy.

The clues are there, in just a few paragraphs posted online. The villain here has actually played poker with the OP, and a lot of it. So it's not unreasonable to assume that the villain has picked up on a thing or two.

You do realize that one of the adjustments for deep-stacked play is that you need a stronger hand to play for stacks, right?

Yeah,

You do realize that over long periods of play two LAGs with a rivalry will often get into deep situations with what would otherwise seem like an absurd range of hands? (don't you watch poker on TV?)

You do realize that the river card completed or strengthened every strong holding the villain could possibly have including some very strong hands worse than ours?

Is our hand good enough? What do we have, 5th nuts?

They key to analyzing this hand is OP's claim that V has never overbet shoved the river before. Is the first time he does that more likely to be a bluff vs. the fifth time he does that?

If hero is the obviously timid mouse that you think he is and these two have extensive history together, do you think that tactic would have been tried before?

There has to be a first time. Why not now?

Maybe the villain isn't as smart as I am and was slow to figure it out

Grunch

Call. Villain had KQ and spazzed on the river

Non-Grunch.

Hero should have folded because Villain had pocket J's.

OK guys, thanks for all inputs and here's the result:
I finally put a chip in after about 5 mins tanking, and was called clock by a mope. Then Villian flipped:


I sent this hand to my coach (winning live pro, solid mid stake player), he said "This is a fold" before I told him the result. He said it's never a bluff and if he was not bluffing, we were in bad shape. And with his strong speech and eye contact, we should convince he was not bluffing, so we were beat. Yeah, "THIS IS A FOLD"
GG

Having thought about it more, this could be an interesting exchange to post in the Poker Tells forums.

It wouldn't be. You'd just get 9 pages of people taking different sides of the argument based on their own experiences, which is dumb

I've browsed that forum a little and am about 3/4 thru zach elwoodS book. He will tell you that the eye contact means nothing without correlation

Two players could have two completely different reasons for giving the same tell.

Maybe the eye contact means strength, like when a lion stalks a gazelle and keeps his eyes fixed. Maybe it's more of a peacock move where he is trying to act strong bit is actually weak.

We don't know unless we have tied that behavior to a hand at showdown and gotten verification.

That information wasn't provided in the OP. Which is a problem by itself. This is the stuff you should learn when you have lots of history with a player. The OP didn't and it cost him 1600 bucks

And OP, get a new coach

Everyone knows the speech / feigning weakness (plz just give me the pot) / strong eye contact = big hand. Problem is what does this guy consider a big hand? Somebody mentioned already that any flush, especially nut flush, and strong trips are probably thinking they have the nuts vs hero.

Coach is right, although I doubt I could fold in game because I'm not good enough to fold a fh against anyone but the nittiest -- obviously I'm not alone in that. At least some of us took the time to think about it

Lol at PEZ recommending a new coach. All the signs were there for a fold... The speech, eye contact, shoving into our range which had mainly nut hands. I think you need a new coach bro.

Definitely a sick spot and I don't think I'd find a fold in the heat of the moment... But +1 to everyone here thinking and advocating a fold instead of playing level 1 "OMGZ WE HAS FULL HOUSE" poker.

Zeebo theorem was written because of people like you.

Just because you aren't able to comprehend it doesn't mean a better player who can is worse than you think he is

So you're just folding under-fulls to river shoves every single time? Even when the river card completes many other potential draws in villain's range?

And if you've followed my comments, I've highlighted definitive evidence that the OP is playing over his bankroll, and has illustrated a temperament that suggests he WOULD fold a full house. So Zeebo doesn't even apply.

I hypothesized that the villain would know this, since the two players have extensive history together. I figured it out in an internet thread. Imagine what I would know if I actually played poker with the OP.

The combination of the hero's nittiness, huge ranges making it to the river, huge chunks of those ranges improving to strong hands on the river, and the extensive LAG history between the two lend weight to the possibility of bluffs and weaker holdings. And we only need 36% to call.

Zeebo was written for people who have much much less than 36% and call anyway. Like if the board was KK88x, and you held a K. Zeebo says shovel money in there because fish can't fold an 8.

Not even in the same universe here bro

How did coach say villain would play the nut flush?

sent from my secret chat thread

I didn't say I would fold, I actually said the opposite, because Vs range could be wider. but someone who is a higher stakes winner and an online mid stakes player is unequivocally better at poker than I am. He thought it was a fold with the same info.

I didnt say zeboo applies to OP, I said it applies to players like you who are arguing tooth and nail that this must be a call, though reading comprehension is hard for some...

You hypothesized it. In other words, you flat out guessed it.


this is all just randomness you've made up in your head to justify stacking off 460bb

Hero stated he and V 3! Light, not sure how that makes him nitty, which your entire argument for V shoving < FH is based on

That is one application of it.

Another use of it would be if you range your opponent at only sets and you make 2nd FH that you over shove the river because your opponent is never folding his under FH (and top FH is extremely unlikely)

Look, it sucks to fold a FH. And as I stated in my first reply, I don't know that I could do so at the table in this spot.

But here, away from the table and theorizing, it's a fold--coach was right. Our hand looks EXACTLY like what we have. There is very little of our range that we raise flop and bomb turn with that isn't akin to our exact holding. (Particularly, if V blocks some of the other hands that we might take this action with, he can narrow our range even further).

Nothing in the action up to now suggest that Hero would remotely consider folding. Nothing suggests that Hero is weak. I don't care what kind of LAG v. LAG history we're talking about, we've shown insane strength in this hand, and V has been sticking around OOP. Then he bombs the %$@!( out of a river that should smash Hero's range.

If V holds the nut flush, he knows Hero can't have it, and thus Hero's range is exclusively boats and air. Shoving would be suicidal. We're basically hoping V has exactly the 3 combos of 22 and decided to turn them into a bluff.

That's just hand reading. The speech and the eye contact throw this over the top as a fold.

This is exactly what I've been trying to convey about hand strength of H vs. hand strength of V and how V should perceive H's hand. Perfect. Thanks.

Geez you guys, you all wanna jump on the opposite bandwagon now that you saw the cards. Lame.

The OP has given plenty of evidence in this thread that he's playing over his bankroll. Hypothesizing that the V would know this is not wild speculation. It's an educated guess with plenty of plausibility. That right there, lends weight to the possibility that V is running a complete bluff.

Plus, when aggressive players have lots of history together, ranges widen. That's just natural. I could see totally plausible scenarios where these two players could have gotten to this point with MUCH MUCH MUCH weaker hands.

Maybe the hero flatted pre-flop with 8d.9d. He raised his 12 outer on the flop, barrelled it again after turning open-ended, and then made a hand on the river. And Maybe villain raised AT pre-flop, hit TPTK, lost intiative and decided to call down, as he should, against another LAG player.

^Is that really a fantasy? Is it IMPOSSIBLE for these players to get to the river with 89dd and AT?

In that case, it's a pretty good spot for villain to turn his hand into a bluff. If we can be as weak as a 9-high flush, but won't call without at least a good FH, then his shove is getting us to fold lots of hands that beat trip tens.

And EL OH EL at anyone lending any weight to the speech/eye contact stuff. ESPECIALLY the hero's coach.

If you definitively apply one interpretation of a read in every situation, you're gonna be wrong half the time. Physical tells need correlation/verification before you can start using them to influence decisions. The fact that the OP doesn't have that information is an epic failure. If these two players know each other so well, then the OP should already have the book on this guy. But he doesn't.