If V shows up with anything other then [JJ, TT, JT], then H's read of V being "good" is way wrong.

I call because my magic oreos tell me that V is FOS.

But if H is certain that V is good at teh pokrz, then fold.

Exactly, and we really have about 1% of the information we need, which is why this whole thread is a waste. The lack of info is part of hero's problem in the first place.

Against an unknown, even with loose tendencies, I'm not loving this spot.

But with tons of history, this feels alot more like

"I'm gonna shove because I think you have 10 or 20 possible hands and only 1 of them calls me. That's 90-95% to win the huge pot that's out there."

And not a lot like

"I'm gonna shove with quads, hope his head explodes, and he calls"

We're beat. I don't know if I have the stones to fold this in-game, but our hand looks exactly like what it is, and V is still shipping near 300bb on the river. Unless there is some serious multi-level-levelling going on, V should never expect Hero to fold a FH here when the flush draw comes in, so this shouldn't be a bluff. Add in the speech and the eye contact, and V wants a call.

From V's perspective, You see:

I see:

"ok, our opponent has an uncapped range that mostly consists of Full houses, and nut flushes. we have a PSR of 1. I'm just going to bet it all because he probably can't fold any part of his range to any size bet, so I may as well extract maximum value.
"

There is no way the V is thinking the bolded. No one makes this bet against a KNOWN opponent with lots of aggressive history, unless they think it's going to be called for value, or succeed as a bluff.

Everything the OP has said in this thread, has suggested that he's more inclined to fold a huge % of his 'uncapped range'. The fact that this thread exists is more evidence of that. With extensive history, I'm quite sure the V is also aware of our hero's timid tendency.

He would have to be ignoring everything he knows about poker, and the hero, to be making a value bet and thinking "this guy can't fold to any size bet"

C'mon, let's put two and two together there.

Have you ever in your life made a 300 BB bet into a nutted range because you expected V to be able to fold a full house or a flush? It is unrealistic at any level of poker, let alone 2/5. The fact that this thread exists doesn't prove your point.

I'm advocating a fold and I still probably would have called in game. There ain't a villain that I've ever played with where I could comfortably assume they would fold 66 on that board often enough to make a bluff shove in this spot profitable. If this was reversed, and we were Villain with some random hand, we would all be saying that it would be complete spew to ship the river here as a bluff.

+1

OP says that their extensive history includes no hand where villain has made a river overbet like this. Hero probably instacall a $800 bet but seems confused by highly unusual behavior.

You keep saying hero is timid, despite no evidence, but let's for a moment assume that villain perceives hero as the opposite of timid and still makes this bet. What should hero do and is the decision worth tanking over in that case?

Yes

This is exactly the kind of play that develops when two players know each other extensively.

Ever been to a home game where the guys have been playing each other for years? You're gonna have to loosen up and gamble. Never folding a near nut hand. I'll take the beat some % of the time, and if that make me queasy, then I'm playing too deep.

Plus, how is our range so nutted? Why can't we have AT here? Just cause we raised the flop it means we only have sets? LAG v LAG with lots of history....our range is 80-90% foldable on this river.

Not having read any answers to this point.

My gut feeling says this is a snap call.
After some pondering my logic set in and I am not sure now.

But if he is a good thinking player than he can never expect Hero to check this river behind after this line, which is why I dont think he takes this line with Quads or the boat. Heros FE is increased by this donk shove vs letting Hero bet and then shove over Heros bet with a cr. Mainly for this reason I like a call to win vs a crazy overvalued hand.

Another point: It seems like such a crazy risky play for V if he actually has Quads or a weird overboat, to shove here, in comparison to letting Hero bet.

The live read that you described speaks for strength, but this is a factor we cant really add to and is completely up to you.

Exhibit A - This thread
Exhibit B - POst #32

Why assume that? How is it relevant?

If hero is so loosey-goosey in this example, why is he tanking?

I'm not sure I understand that question "worth tanking over". Does it cost money to think?

If V thinks that hero will call wide, then we should call when we're at the tip top of our range.

first of all, great OP.

this should be a sticky for how to write a live hand history. all the pertinent information was included. and all the unecessary fluff was left out.

as played, snap call. he is repping the nut flush all day.

Then what are we repping with a raise on flop bomb on turn?

Ignore what you think of OP. Assume a hypothetical situation in which villain is a good hand reader who perceives hero as the opposite of timid and still bets this way. What should hero do and is the decision difficult enough that you don't think it would be ridiculous to tank for a bit?

Nits, everywhere nits as far as the eye can see. Pot flop to $240 and followup with a huge turn bet if you're thinking about folding AP.

sent from my secret chat thread

If he's a good hand reader, and hero is 'the opposite of timid' (which I'm interpreting as "loose") then hero got to this point with a pretty wide range of great, good, and just ok stuff.

Also, if he's a good hand reader, and views the hero as loose, then that means that HE got here with a pretty wide range of stuff.

The looser hero looks to V, the more V has to bet to get hero to fold enough of his range to be profitable.

If I'm hero, and I know my image is loose, and know that V knows, then I'm even more inclined to bluff catch with the very top of my range.

I have no idea why you think the time spent thinking at the table matters. I mentioned it earlier, but that might have been a mistake. I thought I remembered somewhere in this thread that the clock was called. I might be confusing threads though. But if a clock was called. That's a LONG tank. What kinda dick head would hair-trigger a clock in that spot. So if hero tanked that long in this spot, then V's probably seen some long tanks before. If I've confused threads, then none of this matters.

I interpret your usage of "timid" to mean afraid of to call big bets without the absolute nuts, so I use "not timid" to mean willing to call with non-nut hands that don't beat the top of villain's range.

Why you don't understand that I am asking you if the decision is trivially easy so that any call should be an instacall or if the decision here is difficult enough that a player would be reckless to call without giving his play some consideration?

I dunno. top top?

but I just can't see V flatting the turn when the board got so wet. If V has either TT, JJ, or JT, he is not going to just flat the turn

NH. Def worthy of a thread...

Donk shipping the river on this runout with a value hand seems kinda bad. Since your range is boats, flushes, and air, he should be xr tiver with all of his value hands except maybe 22 which he should probably donk/fold or x/c. That being said, he might not know that.

Your range here is so strong and considering your history of LAG vs LAG he shouldn't be expecting you to fold much here. He really should only be bluffing here with a hand like AdTx since he blocks a lot of nutted combos, but even that takes a ton of heart to turn a hand like that into a 300bb into 250bb bluff.

I think it really depends on game dynamics. There's 2 casinos that I regularly play at, at one of them I'm calling and at one of them i'm folding since at casino A, a flush is the nuts here and at casino B it's always TJ.

How often have you seen a solid player put 300bb into a pot on the river and be bluffing or have less than 66 on a board like this vs. your line? Considering there's not history of overvaluing hands or trying to make people fold monsters, I can't come up with a hand other than TJ that he can have here, TT and JJ put a raise in or donk on the turn. This deep, TJ calls turn and x/c non-boat rivers. I'm folding, probably saying 'sigh my 2 pair got counterfeited' and going home to kick my cats.

Yup


Ok, so if V thinks that I'm willing to call with non-nut hands, he should make the biggest bet he can that I will call. And if I know that, then I should be prepared to snap it off with the very top of my range.

Are you asking me, personally, if I would take a few seconds to think things through, and be sure of my decision. Sure. I'm not saying you're a sissy if you don't make this call in a fraction of a second. Sorry if that's the message I'm sending. I'm still not seeing how the amount of time spent thinking is relevant to anything.

The amount of time is a function of the difficulty of the decision. The harder it is, the more time it should take to reason it out. The most difficult decisions can require enough time to where it is acceptable to call the clock on you.

good for you. cats don't get kicked enough

IMO it is almost never acceptable to call the clock in a 1000 BB pot.

What do you mean by top top? the only AT or AJ that would bomb the turn is AdTd or AdJd, and we can't have AdTd. Plus, we put V on diamonds, so why would we think he thinks we have diamonds? If he thinks we have diamonds, he must be completely bluffing river for 300 bb. The only other top/top I can think of is JT, and that boated up, so why's he jamming if that's what he thinks we have?

I see no reason why V wouldn't flat the basic nuts (JJ, TT, or JT) on the turn w/ H raising flop and bombing turn. Why blow H off now?

I really want someone to be V and put H on a hand that makes sense.

I could certainly see JJ/TT playing the river this way if he thinks the money goes in against a boat anyways, so V is playing his hand weird so it looks like a bluff if he happens to be up against a hand that can really only beat a bluff and he thinks hero is capable of hero-calling in a huge pot.