Hey guys,

Game was super loose passive - std raise 25, avg. 5 callers, not many 3 bets

Hero has table covered with 2000ish, Villian has around 1400 - Villian is young guy - early 20's - stacked off an hour or two earlier slowplaying AA againt me on As3s496s - I rivered the flush. Appears to be nervous but definitely thinking player who has built his stack up quickly after rebuy. Seems to be getting stubborn with medium strength hands though
I've been loose aggressive but showing down good hands.
Raise to 25 UTG gets 3 calls,
Villian in HJ bumps to 60 (seems small)
I call on button with 33 to set mine
all 3 other villians call (ranging from 600-1000 in their stacks)


Flop $300

Q 5 3 rainbow

BINGO
It gets checked around to HJ, who fires $175, I debate raising, but I want to bring someone along and take it on the turn, and I call, putting him on mainly AA, KK, AK, AQ KQ maybe QQ, 55 1010 or JJ

TURN $650 brings K

Q 5 3 K

He almost insta checks, I think for a while and consider checking behind but it feels suuuper weak to be pot controlling here with a set, so I fire $375 (in hindsight, im definitely not sure about the sizing here)
Kid acts like he pukes, seems to want to lay it down, calls

RIVER $1400 brings Q -

Q 5 3 K Q

Kid thinks for ten seconds and shoves 715, giving me about 3:1. I have a boat but that is a baaaaad card
I can't ever be ahead here can I? Are there enough AA, AQ, AK, or other random **** to justify calling? - My bet sizing set up this awkward situation.

All feedback appreciated

Why is this a bad card unless he has kq?

Pretty easy call...

so fist pump when he shoves into me? what's his range of hands that get to the river played that way?

thoughts on any of the other streets?

You can't fold this house getting those odds from a villain that over values his hands. I would expect him to show up with AQ here from the read you gave on the turn. I'll put more thought into the response when I get home tonight if you want it.

I think this is an easy call. I think his range on the river is {AA, AK, KK, QQ, AQ, KQ}. Of those, AQ and KQ need to be discounted due to them usually flatting PF vs. an EP raise rather than raising, but it's certainly possible that he wanted to iso. AK also needs to be discounted some as he doesn't always ship river.

The reason he ships AA and sometimes AK is that your perceived range is {Kx, Qx, boats}, and he is not folding given stacks, and he doesn't want to let you play river perfectly by checking behind most Kx and betting Qx+. That would also be a legitimate reason for him to be thinking on the river rather than insta-shoving - he has to go through his options.

Best Case (Undiscounted equity)

Board: Qs 5h 3s Kd Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.222% 72.22% 00.00% 26 0.00 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 27.778% 27.78% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QQ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }


Worst Case Equity:

Board: Qs 5h 3s Kd Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.500% 37.50% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 62.500% 62.50% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QQ+, KQs, KQo }

Likely Equity:

Board: Qs 5h 3s Kd Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.286% 64.29% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 35.714% 35.71% 00.00% 5 0.00 { QQ+, AsKs, AQs, KQs }

I don't know, I don't think he has AA or AK in his range here. I think the only hand you see that play this line is pretty much KK and AQ.
It's almost 50/50 IMO. My call or fold would really be tipped on my read on him.

easiest call ever fistpump. KQ is unlikely imo

yeah, i guess we have 25% equity eh?

in the heat of the moment, i kept thinking AQ or KK. his range probably is pretty narrow but i must have 3:1 here - thoughts on flop call and turn sizing?

I like the flop call and I thought the turn bet was fine as well. Why did you think it wasn't good?

easy call, he wouldn't look sick on the turn if he had kq... he mos tlikely has aq here

I call and he showed up with KK - i misread the turn pretty bad but i don't think i can ever get away from that with the pot so bloated from pre flop shenanigans and flop cbet/call.

Under normal circumstances calling 33 pre is terrible to setmine- assuming stacks are shorter. Since they are deep I dont mind it, but I would prefer a fold. We will get oversetted once in a while too, and we are playing whack-a-mole. The button helps though.

I am calling this river, but expecting to be beat over 50% of the time. This looks like KK more than AQ, villains in pain= the nuts a lot of the time.

I'm guessing you're up against AQ or KK/KQ. Either his expression is an honest look how he feels (AQ) or he's hollywooding and has a monster.

Low pairs can be a pain in this spot, I've found myself oversetted before making this play. Only thing I'd suggest differently is being more aggressive on the flop. Yes it is a dry board, but with that many in there, you don't want too many coming along with something like 99 and turning a bigger set on you.

Has this villain shown himself to be aggressive pre-flop previously? A smallish pre-flop 3bet in a very loose passive game is usually JJ+ and AK only. I don't seen many 2/5 villains who 3bet with KQ or even AQ.

As Setsy points out, you're correct to call here if he's only doing this with AA, KK, & QQ. If you add in AK you're fist pumping to get it in. The question really boils down to: would he do this with Aces or AK? Since there are only 4 combos of KK & QQ available, you only need him to make this move with his aces (6 combos) 33% of the time for your call to be essentially correct. With 12 combos of AK you only need him to make this move with AK one time in 6 (discounting when he does this with AA). Still I'm not sure villain is shoving here with Aces or AK ever, I think he's checking and hoping to show down with those hands like 90+% of the time.

I might be reading too much into villain's pre-flop action, but my experience is that passive villains who 3bet pre-flop are doing so with premium hands 100% of the time. They usually can't fold those hands so I certainly don't mind set mining here when you're deep. However, when passive villains get aggressive I think we have to acknowledge that the board has hit a tight pre-flop range pretty hard.

OTOH My thinking might be ROTy because you posted the hand & therefore it's pretty unlikely you won at showdown.

I like your clear and analytic approach, it's very compelling. (Source?) Still, why are you omitting KK from the hand1 options below?

Grunch

Given how deep you are calling pre is fine.

Raise the flop as played. Instant check followed by sigh/calling turn and then donk shipping river? Fold face up and LOL at him.

For people suggesting he has AA/AK in his range here - no he doesn't. Villain is betting the turn with these hands. C/c and then donk shipping would be the most absurd line with either of these hands after the Q rolls off.

+1

If there wasnt 2 Q's on board I am folding this easier... The 2 Q's make less QQ possible and AQ is a hand in his range that we beat. Most villains would love AQ in this spot and it comprises of some of his range.

I think the key to this hand is to decide what his PF ranges are.. What does he think of AQ? Is he 3 betting this ever? Is he a stupid nit that likes to min raise his big hands? Does he consider AQ a "trouble hand" from his table talk?

Fold preflop. (period)

On the flop, raise to 580. No reason to slowplay since you called. 9 outs put you behind or hurt your action. This is a perfect flop against KK and AA, get it in now.

set ming w/ 33 this deep is terribad.

you don't have a boat, you have a canoe...

obv hard to lay down, but...
the little act he did; act weak and disgusted, and then show huge strength is a tell tale sign of a monster. (ie. KK/KQ).
when they get cagey, change their mind and bomb it, they don't have AQ, thats all. I wouldn't be surprised if he had quads...

once i called a raise w/ 23
flop comes K22.
villian acts cagey and disgusted, while not raising flop. (which he does with AA and AK); then bombs the turn. I fold, 3rd player calls w/ flush draw, binks river and pays off KK.
he turned his hand face up with the cagey bomber routine to me...

is set mining really that bad here? he's over 250BB deep and we know we'll likely get fishy callers (all with full stacks) behind likely to overvalue their TPTK type hands.

Hard to know if he'd 3bet pre with AQ - AQ has to be some part of his range here.

i'm intrigued by the idea of a flop raise - i do raise if it's heads up but with so many people behind i got gunshy. With a hand this strong, i am comfortable just checking and hoping he bluffs later streets/over values his hand. Can he even call a re-raise to 580 if he does have KK? I'm probably snap-folding against my line if i have KK in his shoes - reeks of a set doesn't it?
I personally think flop call is better

and do you set mine with 66? 99?

If you closed the action, then I think set-mining would be fine. However, there was an UTG 5x raise. Unless you are nearly certain that UTG won't 4b, I fold.

if you never ever played 22 and 33, it would not decrease your winrate one iota. if anything, it should improve it.

if you do setmine with this trash, it's a window of 80-150bb deep imo against decent opponents. the fact is that no one is putting in 200+bb with a hand that loses to bottom set, and the reverse implied odds are horrendous.

the down side way outweighs the upside of these hands imo (44, and 55 too, although not as bad, because ppl cant resist setmining 22, 33.) (ie. you can make middle set and get paid by bottom set.)

go ahead, call me a nit, but i've heard it said from good sources that if you aren't capable of folding bottom set, you have no business playing this deep, period. pick up when you get this deep is my advice

Thank you. Sorry for the KK omission, a mistake. Doesn't change the end conclusion as that's 3 more combos.

Have we narrowed his hands to KK, KQ, AQ? If so then the best option is fold.