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2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river 2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river

05-11-2014 , 08:30 PM
2/5 deep

V1 (3k)utg straddle - Whale, business guy lots if money. Calls almost any hand pre up to $100 without even thinking. Continues with any piece of flop for up to pot size bet or a few hundred $. Starts considering folds on turns and rivers and actually although stationy will fold rivers after putting quite a bit of money in on flop and turn. Basically if his piece of flop doesn't improve ott or river he will fold to a value bet with less than top pair.

V2 (2500) MP late 20's guy. Playing taggish but also calling with speculative hands.

V3 (1500) Asian chick. Last hand I played with her was a week ago where I called her down w/AQ vs her AJ when she c/r semi bluffed flop chk turn bluff river on busted FD.

Hero black TT first to act. Table is calling like crazy. I decide I want to play my pp as a big pot hand and likely just set mine. Depending on action I might consider a limp raise. I call $10.

V2 calls
V3 raise $85
V1 calls
Hero - ($2500) I consider 3 betting but I think this results in ISO ing v3 a lot or taking the dead money. My real goal is to play big pots with V1 and I don't particularly want to blow him out of the hand and we are deep enough to play as a set mine and possibly play smallish post flop hand with the right flop I call.

V2 calls.

Flop ($340)

Th 9 5h

V1 checks

Hero bets $125
I hate to check sets otf with wet boards but hate blowing people out of hands worse. I at least hope to get some money in the pot and possibly induce a raise.

V3 (PFR) folds
V1 calls
V2 calls

Turn ($715) off suit 4

V1 checks
Hero bets $550

V2 tank calls
V1 pretty much snap calls with only the slightest perceptible delay.

River ($2365) another off suit 4

Obv good in terms of safety but could be a real action killer vs the few combos of 9T possible as they are semi counterfeited vs slow played JJ+ . I'm having trouble putting Vs on sets as I seriously expect a raise otf.

V2's tank call ott felt like a draw or a grossed out Tx. Draws never back into this runout so I'm not sure what I can get value from.

We have $1600ish behind.

Hero?

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 05-11-2014 at 08:54 PM.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 08:35 PM
Not sure what your stack size was but with whale in hand i would prob lead close to pot on flop and try to gii turn or if too deep the eval best line shoveling in $ on tht turn
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 08:55 PM
I updated op hero stack is $2500.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 09:26 PM
Just jam and hope they put you on busted hearts. Hand is played pretty good up to this point.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 09:32 PM
Flop should be larger. Because of our blockers most of the action we get will be from draws or overpairs and there's no reason to bet small against those hands.

On the river I would just shove and hope someone has 4xhh or hope V1 has JJ or QQ.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 09:34 PM
I want to shove really bad, but I think $700 is right. I think all their made hands call it, where as only slowplayed monsters call a shove and i don't see many. If the preflop raiser was still in the pot I shove and hope they are married to AA/KK.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 09:51 PM
There's just almost no value hands that they can have here.

Nothing gets there. Ever. Nothing improves. Nothing went runner runner (other than lol 4xhh). Two pair gets worse. I mean, it's a good card in that you now have the nuts. But it just doesn't lend it self to you getting any more money. And if someone slow played a monster (99/55) the money is getting in no matter what we bet. And they never have those hands anyway.

I would bet either like $200 and hope for a bluff shove (which is not my default, but might use it like 15% of the time.) or bet like $600 or so. Give some enticing 5:1 odds for stupid Tx to call.

And I feel like the flop should be bigger. This deep we are likely to get a raise or not get a raise. I don't think that sizing matters much in their decision. And since we don't likely get raised that often, we should lead for closer to half pot like $200 here for value.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

I would bet either like $200 and hope for a bluff shove (which is not my default, but might use it like 15% of the time.)
This
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 10:00 PM
Shove
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beauvanlaanen
Shove
What do you plan to get called by?
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 10:08 PM
Stupid small and induce or just shove.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 10:18 PM
I'm fine with your play pre here.
I want to focus on the flop.
Very wet board, with two villains who could easily have a ton of draws in their range means you have got to bet this flop much stronger. Letting two drawing hands in cheaply against your strong but vulnerable set is just too risky, they could easily have a combination of 15 outs that you might need to dodge here.

I would actually overbet this pot, making it look like I'd really prefer to take it down right here, say 1.25 pot size, especially with those Vs. At a minimum I'd make it a pot size bet.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 10:19 PM
You bet 1/3 of the pot on the flop with a straight draw and flush draw out there and 3 others in the hand in a limp-straddle 3! pot. Way too small for the likely drawing hands you are facing.

Otherwise nice hand buy your momma something nice.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-11-2014 , 10:21 PM
Speculations:

Against people who make raising mistakes, you want to bet small and induce.

Against people who make calling mistakes, especially if they level themselves, you want to shove.

I would imagine that it's much harder for people, even decent TAGs, to make a raising mistake here. Turning a made hand into a bluff or bluffing with a busted draw for 1k is really hard.

And, the whale will have a much easier time just shrugging and calling than bluffing.

So this would make me lean toward a shove, but for meta-game reasons, not for logical hand-reading reasons. He would be calling with overpairs that he doesn't want to fold to your busted hearts.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-12-2014 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkultra88
Just jam and hope they put you on busted hearts. Hand is played pretty good up to this point.
I really was leaning this way. I elected to go with a value bet of $900. I just felt based on how vs called the turn a shove wasn't getting called even though it might look bluffer. 1k is still perceived as a big bet in absolute terms even at less than 1/2 pot.

V2 tanked for 2-3 min then folded. V1 who usually makes snap decisions tank called and showed of all things 94.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-12-2014 , 02:30 PM
Based on V descriptions and stack sizes, I have a hard time seeing a bluff attempt OTR, as they will essentially have to bluff-shove. So checking, betting to induce, or shoving is not optimal, unless we have a very loose, bluffy image.

With no description on our image, I think we should go for value.
$750-800ish will get looked up by at least one if not both with all Tx and JJ, and the rare time 4xHH "got there" it will raise/shove (unless of course our image is that of a rock).
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-13-2014 , 08:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
I really was leaning this way. I elected to go with a value bet of $900. I just felt based on how vs called the turn a shove wasn't getting called even though it might look bluffer. 1k is still perceived as a big bet in absolute terms even at less than 1/2 pot.

V2 tanked for 2-3 min then folded. V1 who usually makes snap decisions tank called and showed of all things 94.
I agree with your analysis. It would be an excellent spot to shove river as a bluff precisely because no one bluffs this spot in an 800bb+ pot in LLSNL.

Results notwithstanding, I like the sizing, too. I wonder if there is a way, assuming your reads are correct, to size such that V2 calls - if you're always getting an overcall from V1. This allows V1 to possibly reship, also...

Last edited by scelsi; 05-13-2014 at 08:27 AM. Reason: a bet for value and to induce
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote
05-13-2014 , 08:50 AM
Good thinking. But if V1 doesn't ship over one person he's pretty much never shipping over two people.
2/5 Deeeep value bet sizing 3 handed river Quote

      
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