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2/5 can we still jam on this river? 2/5 can we still jam on this river?

11-16-2021 , 09:55 PM
Hero TAG 1,5k
Villain quiet guy. I remember him as fish from a previous session. Doesnt raise as much as he limps. Sticky postflop and also capable of bluffing. Stack 540

6 handed, villain raises in hj 20, hero 3b in sb to 80 with AK, ​villain calls.

Flop (165) Q5T
hero cbets 60, villain calls
Turn (285) Q5TJ
hero bets 150, villain calls
River (585) Q5TJ2
villain has 250 left
hero?
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-16-2021 , 10:34 PM
Yeah. It's under a half pot bet. We get called by worse quite often. V's got basically all the flopped/turned sets (maybe less QQ), some 2p combos... even AQ that'll just go with it sometimes. I'd probably size up a bit OTT to make it even easier for V to shrug call rivers.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-16-2021 , 10:34 PM
Noob perspective:

There are only 2 or maybe 3 hands that are realistically beating you right now -- AK/AJss, maybe ATss. His line doesn't rule out any of those holdings, but it also doesn't rule out a whole ton of other combinations like AQ, KQ, AJ, or even TT or JJ that you could extract value from. You said he's a bit of a calling station, so those seem entirely in play.

This is absolutely a jam for me. If he has the spades, so be it.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-16-2021 , 11:18 PM
Another way to look at this is what happens if you check. Are you going to fold if villain shoves? For a little less then half the pot only folding against a known nit. Is villain going to bet any hands you beat that fold if you shove? Probably not, with both flush and straight possibilities everything you beat should be happy to check river except a lower straight and those are not folding.

So you might as well shove. Probably get a lot of folds unless you are beat but it doesn't cost you anything but it will be higher EV then check/calling.

Also turn bet should be bigger. Not just because of QuantumSurfer's point about setting up a good river size but because villain is getting odds to chase a flush. He is only getting 3-1 direct but when he calls the sizing commits you to the pot with most of your non-bluff hands. He can be pretty sure of making enough on the river to make it marginally +EV.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-17-2021 , 11:56 AM
According to your read and his preflop range, since he usually limps, I don't think a FD is anywhere near the majority of his range that we need to worry about it. I would rather get value on the rest of his range which he's prob not folding since he's already committed.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-17-2021 , 12:47 PM
His hand looks a lot like a flush to me, but if it's not, I doubt he's calling w/ much worse. What could he have? Two pair? Maybe he flatted a set on the flop?

I guess it depends on how often you think he'll call w/ worse vs. how often you think he'll bluff that river. I'd almost rather check/call since it's the perfect river for him to bluff -- and you aren't folding, anyway.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-17-2021 , 01:12 PM
Yes, I would shove. This becomes more interesting in a SRP, but in a 3 bet pot the number of flushes he has goes way down. Checking here is leaving money on the table.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-19-2021 , 02:35 PM
Dont think he arrives otr with many hands he wants to turn into a bluff.
I jammed because I wouldnt fold to a jam and didn't want him to check back hands we could get value from.

Villain called with T6ss
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote
11-19-2021 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SUYAPA
Villain called with T6ss
Somebody has been watching too much poker on TV.
2/5 can we still jam on this river? Quote

      
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