Villian 1: Thinking tag, 500, Btn

Villian 2: Unkown , 1200, BB

Hero: Seen as tag, covers, UTG+1

Preflop:

Villian 1 straddles to 10 from the button, SB folds, V2 Calls in the BB, Hero raises to 45 with AK, Folds to V1 who calls, V2 Calls.

V1 has a fairly wide range here as he likes to "defend" his straddle.

Flop (130): 10108

V2 checks, Hero Checks, V1 Checks.

I plan to check/call this flop (assuming v2 folds) as i think V1 is likely to bet more of his range here than he would call. Letting V1 bet here also lets me see where V2 stands without committing anything to the pot.

Turn (130): 5

V2 Checks, Hero Checks, V1 Bets 80, V2 Folds, Hero Calls.

I planned to check call here for many of the same reasons as the flop. There are so few actual hands he is repping here compared to all the bluffs in his range. The texture of the board and the weakness showed by v2 and i make this a spot he can bet his entire range.

River (290): 8

Hero Checks, V1 bets 150, Hero Calls.

My range seems to top out at AK high here. This seems to me to be much more likely a bluff than a thin value bet. I just think there are so few actual hands V1 is repping where he could easily be playing his entire range this way.

Solid or Spew?

C-bet the flop or C/C good in this spot?

Raise bigger pre?

Thanks.

He's probably not betting a draw such as J9/97/QJ etc because he would have taken a stab at it on the flop...this takes a lot of his semibluffs away and leaves him with hands like A8, 98, 87, etc, plus potentially some pocket pairs (although 99 would be the only hand that could bet like this otr - JJ would have probably taken a stab otf). You only beat counterfitted pairs, K/Q high, or air (although he is TAG 100 bb deep so I don't know how much air is in his range). K/Q high would probably try to get to showdown in hopes of being good. Therefore you're either chopping with an A (which would most likely try to get to cheap showdown as well) or you're behind. His sizing also looks more like a value bet than anything else.

That being said, if you think you're ahead otf and ott, then the river changes nothing and you should go with your read. Obviously there's a lot of in-game dynamics that we don't know either. When I call the turn, I make sure that I'm prepared to call a potential river bet as well, otherwise it's not worth calling the turn in the first place.

wp, would go the same for me

infact this same situation has happened to me countless times. sometimes they have t8 or 84 etc but more often they have a bluff

Spew

Spew unless the guy is a regular you play with in and out. If it's that, it's all read dependent.

Given, I probably make this call once every 1 1/2 months in llsnl but only if I pick up a read.

I do not have a specific read other than the guy is a thinking tag player.

Against your typical weak passive type, i agree this is pure spew, but i think this line works against a thinking tag.

He is able to recognize how weak our range is and bluff at it with a high frequency. Couple that with the fact that there are very few hands in his value range that make sense.

Pure judgement call on river. Against a typical passive fish this is usually some pair and an easy fold, against bluffy aggressive types this a bluff catching situation where you have to call a lot but not always. Against a typical tag you just have to make a read and go with it. If the river was a brick, I fold more then call but here the turn bet could easily be a small pair that was counterfeited on river.

It looks like a bluff to me. I think 8x is probably not in his range after the flop and Tx is unlikely, but he could be slowplaying it. Most likely is a small PP 22-77. Problem is, a good amount of the time, his "bluff" is going to split the pot with you anyway. Can't really fault a call or fold.

Seems okay. I wouldn't say it's a super profitable call, I'd say reads and dynamic is going to factor into this.

People who think this spot is never a call needs to seriously reconsider themselves.

I take issue with a few points though. I do think villain will have a reasonable number of value hands by the river; 8x will play this way on the flop, as do some other pocket pairs. I also think hero is definitely wrong to say his range tops off at AK. You should be checking overpairs here some % of times, and sometimes 100% of non trips should check here, so you're definitely not top of your range. If anything, the fact that 8 is a BAD bluff card and your kicker no longer playing makes the river something of an iffy spot to call. 2-5 are far better cards for you in this situation. Then agian all this depends on which level your opponent's on which is why I say this is hard to gauge without more info.

I'd rather just c-bet tbh.

He only has a T here imo (or 88). Don't see him having a PP turned into a bluff after checking flop. Your line is in tune mostly with overpairs which he shouldn't expect you to fold, especially for half pot.

Check calling turn on this board is a big indicator that you have showdown value.

I don't hate check calling the turn but folding the river is the safest play.

if villain is an aggrotard you can call here, but versus anybody normal its not profitable.

Not sure why you don't b/f the flop and turn.

This is actually a good alternate line to take with QQ+ when you don't think villains' range can stand much heat -- i.e. Hero is WA/WB.

As played, I probably fold the river since we're calling to chop a large part of the time.

But line as played is certainly fine.

I think checking the flop is fine with our hand and JJ+, especially if villains are competent.

Agree. I'd check with all JJ+, so that would make a check with AK in-line with that Strat.

JJx and TTx boards are pitiful for a missed (and connected) AK when up against 2 or more villains. Everyone and his brother calls a raise with countless Jx and Tx combos. I'd rather bet the flop and pull the emergency brake on successive streets.

Lead flop

Fold turn

How are you gonna raise and then not cbet flop

GRUNCH (means I didn't read any other posts other than OP)

meh, I c-bet the flop. There is $130 and it is very likely your villains missed the board. Between the two of them, you likely have to fade 12 outs on the turn and if we count outs that may give them a draw and enable them to grow some balls and bet then we are talking about as many as 18 outs which is half the deck...

As played, I think an Ace High Hero call against the straddler whose range is ATC is fine. Against the unknown it would be spew but lucky for us the unknown villain folded. Against a thinking player in the straddle who has ATC, hero call is fine.

Overall, your line is fine though you may want to look at how balanced you are against your thinking player opponent. Do you make it a habit of "not" betting when you whiff?

How would you have played JJ/QQ in this spot? What about AA/KK? And more importantly, how does VILLAIN think you would play JJ/QQ in this spot?

just food for thought.

True: The decision point is the turn. The river improves your hand, and gives villain a more desperate reason to bluff if he has a counterfeited two pair or another hand (like a delayed semibluff) that can't win a showdown against your turn calling range.

I prefer a cbet line. Considering how large our pfr is, villains are typically going to put us on a big pair. Also, by checking we're giving them a free card to capitalize on their equity. We have to get a really good runout (which hero did) for a ch/call to be best.

Despite preferring the cbet line, I like the line for this particular board. If he hit a 5 or had a PP under the 8, he's probably going to stab since he has no SDV. 99 might get thin here, but also unlikely. Seems pretty polarized (8/10 or he has no SDV) and an 8 or 10 is unlikely.

agreed.

I suspect a lot of 5x and under pairs in his range that spazz out and hate that freaking river card. Not to mention he should be betting a fair amount of air and air is going to comprise the majority of his range.