2/5 NLHE

hero: 1200
Villain 1: 350
Villain 2: 900

Both villains are ABC players from the limited hands I've seen. No real info on them, both moved from other tables. Hero has TAG image and only shown premium hands.

Villain 1 utg limps
Villain 2 opens for 25 in HJ
Hero calls with 44 on button
Villain 1 calls

2 way pot. 75$ pot

Flop Ks Js 4s

Villain 1 check
Villain 2 bets 65

Hero???

Well given you called the 25 open and you got what you wanted, you can either raise or call. Folding is terrible.

Sets are in his range, flushes, AA.

More combos of flushes than sets and also you have AA as a possibility, I think I just flat the flop

Let's go a step further. Two scenarios.

Hero flats. Villain 1 flats. Turn is non Spade Q. Villain 1 check, villain 2 bets 1/2 pot. Hero???

Same as above but hero flats, villain 1 folds. Turn non spade Q, villain bets 1/2 pot. Hero??

If he will stack off with a flush on a paired board, call, if not fold.


Not getting the correct odds on the turn nor flop without implied odds

I don't like the preflop call. Setmining heads up isn't profitable imo unless there are other post flop factors to consider (i.e. V is weak tight or sees MUBs if you put pressure on him).

But if your strategy is to just call and flop a set, imo that's not enough to call heads up. You want to set mine vs multiple opponents since that INCREASES the odds of you hitting your hand AND a villain hitting the board hard enough to pay you off.

Well, you got what you wanted. AKx will pay you off, AAx will pay you off...

flop is an easy call. The plan should be to pot control flop, extract value on turn and river barring non-spade turns and rivers. If V raises or bets the moon you can fold since you said V was ABC and an ABC player is not going crazy deep stacked without the flush

Question:
You say you have no reads on Villains because they just moved tables, but then assert that you have an image of TAG nut peddler. I'm just wondering if these V's have been at the table long enough for you to make this assertion?

As played I call flop to see what V1 does (good/bad?). I'm probably flatting 1/2 pot on brick turns regardless of whether both V's are still in the hand or not. A brick river is going to be where I make the tough decision.

if his range only consists of sets, flushes, AA, u have to fold ...
his range is much wider here.

I guess that since everyone is saying to just flat the flop, it is probably the right play vs raising. But are we missing value by not raising? One of the V's may have a flush but do you think the PF raiser can continue with a hand such as TP with NFD or AA?
Also, in what situation is it ok to raise a set on a monotone board?

Raise for value

Raising blows ak our and is no good. Call all the way down, if k pairs the river raise fold for value. If a spade hits you might want to turn your hennes into a bluff hu.

Fwiw folding pf is awful imo.

Call flop, call turn. Re-evaluate river.

He probably will, but there still might not be enough combinations that we beat that will continue (KJ/AhKx/AhAx) as compared to how many combinations we are behind (flushes/sets). I think the choice between calling and raising is close and might come down to how wide is opening range is. Is he opening A2s and SC's? If so then I flat the flop. If not then I think a good argument can be made for raising for value.

raising the flop isn't so terrible, you're in position and you control the action, so raising on the flop is fine. I doubt the villain has a flush because most times when someone flops a flush they're slowplaying it anyway so no flush IMO.

I don't think it happens quite as much when they are the preflop raiser, though it certainly happens.

I think calling is fine but I like raising flop. There aren't many flushes in a ABC Tag's range. AQs,ATs,QTs maybe T9s. You will get action from hands like AA AK or AQ/AJ with the A Also since most of villians flush hands are the nuts he probably will give you more rope to hang yourself with on the turn thereby letting you draw to your boat. You also charge other villian who may have bare A

As played Q is not a great card for you since it creats possible str8ts and another set you may be losing to. I would just call on this turn card if I just called flop.

PF call is fine.

I'd call OTF. Villain can be betting all kinds of hands here, the majority of which you are beating.

Villain 1 played with me at another table for a couple hours the night before. I only got all my chips in on a TT8 board when I had ATs.

Another hand at that table I had 22 on AJ2 flop, facing a call against extremely nitty player. A turn, I checked back turn. Blank river I made 1/2 pot value bet and got called. Showed 22, so he saw me keep pot small with bottom set on that board.

I should have said villain 1 sees me as taggish, villain 2 really has no idea how I play.

Ok, lets go to turn action.

Flop: Hero calls Villain 1 calls

River: Another non spade Q.

Villain 1: checks

Villain 2: shoves for 500ish.

Hero??? Can we ever fold this river? We are now beating flushes, but losing to KK JJ QQ KQ.

I have no idea what villain 2 is capable of shoving with. My assumption he is taggish is very limited. I really have no idea.

Ask Villain 2 if he's ever heard of Zeebo's Theorem and then fold.

You can only call. That's a huge scare card for AK. You can't stack off anymore. V could still have a wide range of hands that are beat but raising is null. V1 could also have you beat but could also have KQ etc.

If action is:
Flop check 65 call call
1. Turn (270) check 135 call 240 call(or fold) call
2. Turn (270) check 120 call 240 795 fold
3. Turn (270) check 135 call call.
3.(i) River Qnonspade (675) check (has 115) all in 500.
Wow this would be a massive tank for me. I dont know what the villain thinks we're calling with. Ak would bet smaller or check i think. AT would go for value i think, as would AQ and AA. We lose to KK KQ QsQx QJ and JJ. Tough spot.

For me there is no bluff in this line so it all depends on character reads and how thin you think they value bet. I would probably call and note the hand.

Curious of result. If you lost its a pretty bad cooler but on the river there is a chance to fold but it wouldnt be too -ve EV to call so it wouldnt be so bad

I posted the last one on turn play to get input on river since the consensus was to flat the turn.

Actual hand played out as follows:

Villain 1 limps

Villain 2 raise to 25 in HJ

Hero calls with 44 on button

Villain 1 calls

Flop: Ks Js 4s

Villain 1 check

Villain 2 bets 65

Hero calls 65

Villain 2 calls 65

Thoughts: I've played a couple hours the night before with villain 1 and have seen him only call with draws and push when he has a made hand. I'm fairly sure he has bare A spade.

Turn: non Q spade

Villain 1 checks

Villain 2 bets 1/2 pot. He has 400ish behind at this point.

My thoughts here are: I'm only folding to a spade or T river. I'm fairly sure villain 1 has Ace spade, and I'm not totally sure if villain 2 would only bet 1/2 pot if he had a non nut flush. I haven't played with him, but with 2 callers, I feel like most players would bet much larger here with a flush so not to let the Ace draw.

I decide since I'm likely not folding any non spade river to get it in on turn, if villain 1 has nut draw, his stack is 200ish and he's never folding, and if i'm wrong and villain 2 has something like AK with Ace spades, he's likely not folding either.

Hero: all in

Villain 1 call

Villain 2 call.

River non spade Q

Villain 1 has bare ace spade, hero has 44, villain 2 has KQ and higher full house on river.

I'm not sure if logic behind my turn shove was good in the long run. I put villain 1 on nut draw correctly, but I had no prior information on villain 2 if he would call his stack off without flush or set. Obviously we know he would now with Top 2, but there's no way I could have known that when I shoved.

This may be very nitty of me to think, but after having a day to think about the hand......would it be insanely -EV to just fold turn bet when we are playing deep?

Turn brings a board of Ks Js 4s Qh

Villain still fires, and there is no prior history with this villain. Sure he could have a lot of hands we beat, but can also have a lot of hands we lose to. We only have 100ish invested.

Could our play in the long run just to be a fold here against an unknown villain, since we the river bet is likely to be very large, and just find a better spot with bottom set, or at least against villains we have more history with?

I really like this play and most players would make the mistake of calling turn instead of going all-in.

On the turn, you find yourself in a situation where come river, if there is no spade on river you will call a bet that puts you all in.

Whenever you are in a situation where it is likely you are NOT folding on the next street and it is also likely that your villains are on a draw, then you simply MUST go all-in because the drawers are not paying you off on river if they miss... So your only chance to get value from the drawers is the turn.

You got all the money in while you were an 67% favorite in a 3way pot which is pretty damn good. Just unfortunate it didn't pan out.

I agree with Doyle Brunson, if you flop a set and don't go broke then you didn't play them right.

overall, minus the preflop call, well played imo.

lastly, I wouldn't say preflop was "terrible" just marginal. About 6 months ago, i've stopped calling preflop raises heads up with baby pairs and when V raised and action fell to you you were potentially heads up, prior to your call you didn't know if the other villain would call. Other than that, I think well played.

I think if you are planning on playing fit/fold then yeah calling PF isn't great but you are 200xbb deep and have position. I tend to plan on getting a little wild in these situations and will raise a lot of flops that are real wet and connected.

On the turn it is soul read time and I'm jamming or I'm folding. Bottom set here is just so gross, but the turn Q is likely good for your hand as it likely improved his hand but not so much as it beats yours. This is a little disingenuous since I already read the action but I'd probably stick it in putting his range at like AsJ/AsK/AsQ/KK/JJ/KQ/KJ/all suited connectors and broadway flushes and I'm pretty sure we have good equity vs this range (I don't have stove handy). Off the top of my head we probably need 40% to jam this turn and this is assuming the limper folds and we have like 20% vs a flopped flush.

The reality is that this all depends on Villain 2's opening range and your reads just aren't that good. If he is limping all marginal hands and raising all premium ones we are in much better shape than if he is raising his entire range. The reason for this is that he has way more flushes in his range. We are like 85/15 vs AsK/Q/J and AsT turned a straight and now has us crushed.

As/KQJ is 9 combos at 85/15
AsT is 3 combos at 20/80
KQ/KJ is 18 combos at 90/10
KK/JJ is 6 combos at 5/95

This non flush range gives us about 69% equity.

40% = equity needed to jam
69.23% = equity without flushes

Against a flush we have 20% equity which means that he needs less than 45 combos of flushes for us to be profitable to jam here which I think we can all agree he does not have.

This is about where I sit with this type of situation. I don't like calling here and having to make a tough decision on river. I'm 50/50 on whether to be conservative in this spot and fold just because we can find a better spot and we're not heavily investing in this pot. And on the other hand I feel like I probably have most of his range crushed. Sure he shows up with a set some of the time.

I think it comes down to bankroll. If you're properly rolled, you jam here, if not, you fold the turn.