2/5, 6 players, new table no reads..

Effective stacks pre: ~480

Pre: Hero is in CO with 33 and overlimps HJ's $5 open limp, BTN limps as well, SB completes, and V in BB pops it to $30, only Hero calls

Is the call bad considering I was getting almost 20:1, BB's strong range: TT+/AQ type hands I guess and the possibility of BTN/SB coming along behind my call?

Flop ($75): A38
BB checks, Hero bets $40, BB calls

Scared to go bigger and lose him, since he's showing weakness now

Turn ($155): A
BB checks, Hero bets $95, BB calls

Good card for me as I can now eliminate a slowplaying AA.. and lower pairs might call again since I have lesser Ax in my range now.. should I bet larger here and risk losing him?

River ($345): 7
BB checks, Hero ?

Should I vbet small or shove for a PSB here?

If you flop a set less than 100BBs deep and can't easily get it all in by the river, you've made massive sizing errors

easy shove as played but bigger on flop and turn

^ I have this syndrome of being afraid to lose players to bigger than 1/2 pot bets when I flop virtually the nuts and it's likely my opponent is not so strong, and will bet huge when I have vulnerable hands like overpairs.

I like the call pre, I go bigger OTF, maybe a bit bigger OTT. River is an easy shove, all trips call.

Call pre is fine, especially if you expect it will go multiway (it will usually go multiway).

If you were going to bet bigger anywhere, it'd be on the flop. $40 is barely bigger than preflop and all the hands that are calling $40 are also calling $50-60. You also want to charge draws at that point. It's also the street he's most likely to call on with underpairs, so bigger sizing works out.

Turn is fine to bet smaller, 1/2 to 2/3rds-pot seems about right. You're giving him good odds to chase a flush and are praying he hits, and he should be a little more likely to call with 99-KK here.

So, well played till this point. River is weird. I just don't know how he shows up with a big A after checking 3 streets.... the only Ax that makes sense would be something like A4s and is worried about his kicker. Obviously busted draws aren't putting another $ into the pot. It's really hard for him to call a big bet with pocket pairs, and I'm not sure he's calling a ship with a weak A. I think I'd bet small (maybe $95 again) to try to get a crying call from JJ or something or $150 or so to credibly represent a bluff.

I'm just not sure all trips call, if V was that confident about his hand, wouldn't he have bet at some point?

Any basic reads? Age/gender/race/wealth? Any tells? Was he tanking before checking/calling, or doing it fast?

No reason to bet small here, if your correct and he is weak, it may even make him less likely to call because he can no longer put you on a bluff (which is all he's beating if he happens to have a hand like JJ-KK).

Shove for value, hope he calls off with a big pair or Ax that played it weird to "trap" you. If he folds so be it, can't be scared to go for value; we only get so many nutted hands, can't waste them.

Only thing I can really put him on is KK/QQ. I would shove and hope it looks like a bluff to him.

All-in. There's a small chance that he has something stupid like AK.

Bet ~70 then call of a shove (hopefully). Really depends on your V. Have you played with him before? Does he level himself into calling, or is he a believer. What is your image like?

Wtf? You're saying to bet extremely small to try and induce a bluff-shove? What possible reasoning can you provide as to why V is going to turn a made hand into a bluff when we bet 70 here.

More on the flop, more on the turn, easy shove river

50/120/shove

you need to develop more of a "swing for the fences" mentality. You make more overall when Ax can't fold than when you keep KK/QQ on hands like this.

It's true that if you flop a set and your around 100bb you obviously want to get it in by the river however i think that he has KK and QQ so often in this spot and won't be able to call a river shove often enough to make it the most optimal bet size (Unless you guys have history and he knows your capable of bluffing this spot). I'd probably bet somewhere between 190-225, although shoving is fine too. Depends on your image and dynamic between you and villain.

I think if you shove he's calling around 15% of the time of the time and making it smaller he calls around 25% (roughly).

EV for shoving would be roughly 0.15 x 310 = 46.5

EV for value bet would be roughly 0.25 x 215 = 53.75

Obviously it's close but I think he calls the smaller bet more than 10% more often than the shove if he has KK or QQ which he almost always has given the way he played the hand.

Villain has played it like he has a weak ace or a pp between 88 and KK. I'm shoving.

What percentage of his range that raises pf and checks this flop are spades?

How often do you think he's raising to $30 out of the BB w/ a weak ace?

Bet small. Like $140.

Probably not a huge %, I agree. Maybe 5-10 combos? It's just a tertiary reason why a larger flop bet is a little better, the main reasons are that it builds a bigger pot for later streets and it's the street you're most likely to get calls on in general.