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2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat 2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat

03-11-2015 , 07:48 AM
Hero just sat down at the table and looks down at 55 in BB

V1 raises $25 UTG, V2, V3 and V4 call (MP, CO, BTN respectively), Hero calls

Effective stacks are $500

Flop ($125): Th7c5c
Hero checks, V1 bets $75, V2 raises to $150, V3 shoves all-in, V4 calls, Hero ???

All 4 villains seem competent but fairly new. The obv plan was to c/r but WTF lol.

Last edited by fizzypants; 03-11-2015 at 07:58 AM.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 07:54 AM
Well. You just sat down no hand history....
Might be Against top set, but I would call here. If you run into a higher set, well thats poker. Easy call.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 07:54 AM
Call.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 08:09 AM
Ooooof. On this board, you have 3rd nuts but you have 4 opponents showing interest on the flop. I can assign hands for each of them that we beat, but I have to think someone has middle set or top set here. Pot is getting big, but it's fold or jam 475 and absent any reads, it's a fold.
Honestly, though, I tank call and cry inside. Because Im probably just too big a fish to fold a flopped set on a board like this. Third nuts. But I think you're beat here unless they are just over playing over pairs and draws. Set over set you have one card to improve, so basically drawing dead. Middle set, def jam, top set, jam fist pump. Bottom set, ugh. I'd like to find a fold here. Not sure if I can do it but think that's probably the right play. Esp absent any reads.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 08:22 AM
V1 is cbetting. He could have a hand, but really TT is the only real hand he could have ahead of us. He probably has a bigger PP or overs.

V2 min raised. He could have a set, but he also could have JT/T9 and trying to see where he's at. He has way too much in his range that is behind you.

V3 shoved. He has the most sets in his range, but he also has FDs. People love playing big pots with TPTK+NFD. Maybe 98 for the combo draw. Or he could have any FD with the T knowing he's ahead of all FDs and has outs against sets/2P. Plus there is a spazz factor that he could be trying to just outplay V1 and V2

All in all, I'd probably call because I'm a fish at the table. You only have 25 invested, so if you fold, it's not like anyone would fault you
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 10:01 AM
You called to set mine and was victorious. What's the question?
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 10:21 AM
Think you found a spot you can fold a set on flop. But I wouldn't.
Against 1010,77,8c9c, Ac10c,10c9c, 8c6c,... we are flipping.

GII. Hope his range is wider than just 1010,77,8c9c, 8c6c
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wewa925
You called to set mine and was victorious. What's the question?
While I lean towards shoving in this situation, this is a terrible mindset. You always have to be able to reevaluate. Every situation is different. I have folded a flopped set a handful of times and I think most decent players have as well
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 10:40 AM
That is so sick. So I assume V3 shoved for the effective 500 and v4 covered. You probably sat down for 500. I agree with Mikko this is probably the one time you can fold.

But I might reason that V4 and V3 are just a little bit looser perhaps calling with combo draws or an over pair.

But with that money I sigh and call and grab my wallet.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 10:41 AM
With all the action and V4 cold-calling $475 after all that action, I might actually be able to find a fold. Not sure, but I might. What are we hoping to be up against here? AA vs QQ vs. Axcc vs. OESFD?
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
V1 is cbetting. He could have a hand, but really TT is the only real hand he could have ahead of us. He probably has a bigger PP or overs.

V2 min raised. He could have a set, but he also could have JT/T9 and trying to see where he's at. He has way too much in his range that is behind you.

V3 shoved. He has the most sets in his range, but he also has FDs. People love playing big pots with TPTK+NFD. Maybe 98 for the combo draw. Or he could have any FD with the T knowing he's ahead of all FDs and has outs against sets/2P. Plus there is a spazz factor that he could be trying to just outplay V1 and V2

All in all, I'd probably call because I'm a fish at the table. You only have 25 invested, so if you fold, it's not like anyone would fault you
I agree but you forgot one more V (V4) that flat called a bet-raise-shove before it gets back to Hero...
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eyurus
I agree but you forgot one more V (V4) that flat called a bet-raise-shove before it gets back to Hero...
Ha, no ****! I guess I did.

That probably skews this more towards fold. But like I said, in game I'm probably not good enough to fold.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 11:48 AM
WTF lol indeed. You can't fold. So many low stakes players would overvalue straight/flush draws, overpairs, and top pair. I would fold if I knew V3 or V4 were supernits. I would call against random unknown villains. Welcome to the table.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 11:53 AM
How can we call this given the fact that V4 just called in front of us after a bet, raise, and all-in?
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 12:09 PM
Anyone can manipulate a player's range so as to justify a call, raise or fold. If we have a good handle on a group of villains' ranges, then it's pretty easy to make a decision. If we have no idea what their ranges might be, it becomes a guessing game, and the answers here reflect that. Without having a read on any of these players it makes it a tough spot.

I would call and pray for the 1-outer.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 12:10 PM
This is a pretty sick spot, but I think I am finding a fold here. There is a ton of money in this pot, but with the bet, raise, all-in, call before it is back to us, the best we can hope for is V1 folds and we are up against JJ/top two, NFD, and combo draw. Realistically (even with no reads), I expect to see a bigger set here often enough that I sigh and fold. V4 stacking off after the action in front of him seals the deal for me. Might be too nitty, but I have a feeling we are no good in this spot. Will be interested to hear results on this one.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 12:21 PM
Assuming nobody is folding, you need ~20% equity against all their ranges to breakeven. Even worst case scenario (V1 has TT+, AKcc, AQcc, V2 has sets, T7s, 75s, Axcc, and combo FDs, and the other two villains have sets, T7s, 75s, Axcc and combo draws), you have ~17% equity. If any of the other villains EVER show up with JJ, QQ, AT, and/or naked FDs or naked opened enders, you can never fold here.

I added QQ to all the other Villains ranges (since some people slow play QQ, JJ pre waiting for safe flop) and your equity goes up to 21%. If you include other draws, your equity goes up more

TLDR: Don't fold here, it's almost always a bad fold long term. It's not TERRIBLE, but it's still not a spot to fold. This is a spot to fold top two pairs, but with bottom set you have the best hand too often.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 12:26 PM
lead the flop into this large of a field too btw; and don't fold now.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 12:30 PM
Slim - this is a very good point, but I think you have to assume this is going to be a potential 3-4 way all in if we call. V1 is mucking his entire range except for 77, TT, NFD imo after he is raised, reraised all in, call, call. What does this do to our equity if he folds, and maybe even V2 folds? Need probably 25-30% or even a little less with all the dead money?
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 02:54 PM
Scenario A you call and villains behind all call. You'd be getting better than 4:1

PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.7.2.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 4.98:1 4.98:1 inf:1 [5h5d]
Player 2: 2.86:1 3.14:1 26.4:1 {TT, 77, AcJc-Ac5c, T7s, 98s, 86s}
Player 3: 2.83:1 3.11:1 26.4:1 {TT, 77, AcJc-Ac5c, T7s, 98s, 86s}
Player 4: 2.84:1 3.12:1 26.4:1 {TT, 77, AcJc-Ac5c, T7s, 98s, 86s}
Player 5: 18.4:1 18.7:1 620:1 {88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+}

Board: [Th 7c 5c ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 105000

These were quick ranges and has V1 stacking off with nothing sometimes which he won't but you don't have the equity without widening the othe v ranges considerably.

Scenario B only the all in players and you go to showdown.

Call 475 to win 1300 more.

PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.7.2.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 2.32:1 2.32:1 inf:1 [5h5d]
Player 2: 1.86:1 1.93:1 57.3:1 {TT, 77, AcJc-Ac5c, T7s, 98s, 86s}
Player 3: 1.86:1 1.93:1 57.3:1 {TT, 77, AcJc-Ac5c, T7s, 98s, 86s}

Board: [Th 7c 5c ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 180000 trials

Getting it in vs v3 and v4 is probably profitable assuming their stacking off range 100bb deep includes a lot of draws. If v2 calls off it's closer.

This could probably go either way.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 02:58 PM
Qq
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 03:06 PM
I don't fold sets on the flop for 100bb, so call.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
I don't fold sets on the flop for 100bb, so call.
I don't either...usually. But this is a very unusual situation. Just am not seeing how bottom set can be good in this spot the more I think about it.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkahue
I don't either...usually. But this is a very unusual situation. Just am not seeing how bottom set can be good in this spot the more I think about it.
People do weird things and overvalue hands. Flopping sets is hard. Two people flopping sets is harder. For 100bb, I'm not folding....if it's set over set, then I pay it off and move on to the next hand.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote
03-11-2015 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
lead the flop into this large of a field too btw; and don't fold now.
Agree. This is a good spot for a bet/3-bet. A c-bet isn't guaranteed. If the flop checks through, so many turn cards suck (action killers and villain improvers).

As played, eh, I'm not as set on calling as others. I think calling is fine and probably marginally +EV. I wouldn't fault you for a tight fold, either.
2/5 - Bottom set facing 400 degrees heat Quote

      
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