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2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision 2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision

12-22-2014 , 02:27 PM
This is a hand form a few days ago in Motor City, Detroit. I don't play regularly there and I don't know how many of the regulars play.

Hero (CO): Early 30s, white, casually dressed. Have been playing tight. It's the beginning of the session (about an hour there) and I'm trying to get a feel from the table. Have shown 2 hands so far AK won with TPTK and AA with 3bet pre and shove flop against short stack. Nothing out of line and a couple of pf raises in position.

Relevant villains:
V1 (MP): Young mid 20s asian. Seems like a regular grinder. Kind of loose pf (calls often) but not overly aggressive with pf raises. He seems to be confident of his post flop play and willing to see flops. I would consider him thinking player.

V2 (BTN): Mid 40s middle-eastern. Recreational regular in the room. Nothing out of line so far. Limp called some times, but that's a general tendency at the table. Has shown some aggression pre and post flop. Also seems thinking player on some level, but I cannot be sure of how skilled he is.

Table is generally passive and quite a few hands have been limped and gone 5-6 way to the flop.

On this hand hero is CO with 56hh, effective stacks are $500:
One limp from EP, V1 in MP calls, another call, Hero in CO calls, V2 on BTN raises to $20, blinds fold, limper folds, V1 calls, other limper calls and Hero calls closing the action.

Comments on pre-flop? I think that the over-limp pre is pretty standard since the hand can play well multi-way and I can get out easily post flop. The call after V2 raised is also pretty standard I think, since there's enough money in the pot, I'm closing the action and have good relative position. Anyone suggesting different course of action?

Flop (pot ~$85 after rake): 567r
V1 donk bets $60, pre-flop limper folds.
Hero?

The decision is between flatting and raising.

I think the board connects well with V1's range but no so well with V2.

V1 can have a lot of pair+OESD hands, some overpairs 88-JJ and sets. I don't think he leads with made straights, and maybe he even checks sets with intention to check-raise.

For V2 I think he has mostly overcards or overpairs. I don't see why he would raise connectors or small pairs OTB where he could see a flop for cheap multiway with great implied odds. Maybe he has some sets, but I don't think he has any straights, 2-pair or pair+oesd combos.

Does my ranging of Vs make sense given descriptions and action?

Regardless of calling or raising I think V2 never floats with overcards. So if he continues it's likely an overpair and less likely a set.

If we flat:
Best case is that V2 raises with likely overpair, V1 folds and we can shove.
Otherwise if V1 calls the raise or shoves then we fold.
The problem here is that V2 is not an idiot so I don't think he goes crazy with overpair. If he flats then there are lots of bad turn cards and it will be hard to proceed with bottom 2pair.

Is this thinking too much of a scared money approach? If I trust my ranging of V's I should be able to proceed on the turn and have a feeling of where I am at the hand. Would this be too risky with 2pair and better to do with sets?

If we raise:
I'm thinking a raise to $150-$180 as it gives room to fold if both V's go crazy and can induce shove from V2.

V2 may fold overpairs given bad board texture and action before him. That's not a great outcome, but given the dead money already in pot I'm OK with it.
If V2 shoves over our raise and V1 folds I'm calling it off as I think I'm ahead of his range.
If V2 shoves and V1 calls then it's tough, but I would most likely fold as V1 can have anything and I don't think I beat much that calls a shove.
If V2 folds and V1 shoves then I think it's also a fold. He can be semi-bluffing with pair+oesd but it feels more likely that we're beat.
If V2 folds and V1 calls then the plan is to pretty much shove any relatively safe turn if checked to me (I would have about 3/4 PSB left on the turn).

So my question is what is the best course of action? We want to maximize profit when we're ahead, but our hand seems vulnerable on this board and cannot take too much heat.

If we raise and both V's fold correctly, did we make a mistake or does the money already in the pot make it a good play?

Any thoughts and suggestions are greatly appreciated.
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-22-2014 , 02:54 PM
What suit is the 7?

And yes i raise to like 150
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-22-2014 , 02:56 PM
It was red, but I can't remember if h or d. Are you thinking that back-door draws influence our decision? I haven't thought of that at all.
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-22-2014 , 03:22 PM
Why not raise lol
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-22-2014 , 06:26 PM
Backdoor draws always increase equity
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-23-2014 , 09:37 PM
Never won a hand in 20 years with bottom two against a large river bet.

Fold.
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-23-2014 , 11:02 PM
Poker is a game of information. We are in position so let's use our position. V will better define his range on turn, so I flat here and reevaluate turn.

Not to worried about preflop raiser since overpairs and AK, AQ, KQ airballs comprise majority of his range.

So I flat and reevaluate.

Lastly, I think too often in these spots we are in too much of a hurry to decide the entire hand, be it shove or fold. Just relax, take a deep breath and play poker. We have position so let's use it. Flatting keeps our range wide and this is a scary board regardless of what V holds. So his turn bet will contain a wealth of information we can use and exploit. And obviously if turn sucks for us we fold.
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-24-2014 , 11:36 AM
OP, what does raising flop accomplish?
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-24-2014 , 02:59 PM
If u don't raise its a huge mistake
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-24-2014 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueshoes
If u don't raise its a huge mistake
please explain why...
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-25-2014 , 02:40 AM
Call and reevaluate.
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote
12-25-2014 , 09:53 AM
V1 donked out into3 other players, so I would just flat call.
2/5 bottom 2 pair on 567r flop decision Quote

      
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