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2/5 blunder? 2/5 blunder?

06-03-2023 , 05:47 AM
V: bought in short.

Has around 350 and hasn’t really played any hands in about an hour.

H: nothing exciting. I cover haven’t shown down anything really or played many hands either

OTTH: one open to 15 I make it 50 in cutoff with KdKc

V cold calls BB opener folds

(115) flop Qh7h2d

V checks I bet 35 he calls

(185) Turn 3s

He checks. I check.. after thinking about it I really hate it. The more I think about it the more I like a big river bet or shoving if he bets the river but idk it’s definitely not standard to check here and probably very bad?

River Jd

I hate it. A cold calling range in the BB from a tighter player can have JJ so often it’s gross

He bets 150

Thoughts?

Not my best hand ever
2/5 blunder? Quote
06-03-2023 , 10:05 AM
Meh. I'm not thrilled with the c-downbet here at these stack sizes. I think this is okay in a deeper situation. This V bought in short and hasn't been active. He's likely looking to get a premium hand and go with it.

So I'm probably c-betting bigger than optimal as an exploit.

Turn: I'm never checking here. V has roughly 270 behind and the pot is 185. He either has something or he doesn't. And if he's drawing I'm charging him. I'd probably bet 100, maybe 125.

AP river: J is a bad card but H gets 2-1 and V can have AQ here more often than JJ. H showed weakness on turn; maybe H has induced a bluff and H is under-repped I think. I think it's a sigh/call at 2-1 but I fear we misplayed this spot.
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06-03-2023 , 10:21 AM
Spr is under 3, I’d be looking to make this a 2 street game by betting big flop and shoving every turn except an ace.

We can take it 3 streets with this small cbet but the goal should be to get all in, not pot control turn.
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06-03-2023 , 10:29 AM
Thanks for posting hands like this. Many of the HHs ITF are just thinly veiled brag posts about spots many of us see like once or twice a year. It's much harder to post hands you think you may get roasted for. I've never learned anything from doing something "right"

I play pre the same way.

OTF we have an op with SPR 3 so the only thing I'm thinking about is how much I should bet to make my turn jam easy to swallow. Even a same bet of 50 gives us a psb jam ott so I probably go like 65 and plan on jamming most turns.

OTT the small flop bet kept his range wide, so I think we have a clear value bet . Bet the max you think Qx or fds will call. $90ish?

OTR snap call after turn x/x, no question.
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06-04-2023 , 01:31 AM
you have $350, your goal here should be to get all in by the river, if not you screwed up

size bets accordingly

i see no reason to check the turn

as played snap call its not close
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06-04-2023 , 11:32 AM
Pre is solid

Flop we have to raise more, 35 doesn't price out draws and we aren't charging any of his Qs that hit. I would bet 80-100 in this spot

Turn must be check call or bet call depending on his action I would expect. As played a check from V would cause me to bet out 1/2 pot or so

River is bad card but as played he can have bluffs here. I dont think he has AQ or many value hands so we need to decide if we want to turn our hand into a bluff catcher which given villains image isnt great. As played I would call more often than not. Im not loving it at all though!
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06-04-2023 , 11:38 AM
Bet turn 100%. You can’t guarantee to get stacks in by checking turn.

AQ fits in well with Vs cold calling range in the blinds and you have underrepped your hand. River is absolutely never a fold. Call is fine, even a jam could be defensible.
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06-04-2023 , 11:58 AM
I really think we have to bet at least quarter pot, maybe even pot on the turn. I think we can’t give a free card in this situation. Also I put this in a solver, and GTO is to go all in on the river.

All in all, this is a sick hand. Your instinct seems right, you should have bet on the turn.

Also, I suck at poker.
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06-05-2023 , 11:22 AM
I think as long as you bet flop, turn, and jam river, you do fine. Sizing on flop and turn is not really critical.

As played I think river is a thin value jam that sometimes will lose a good amount of the time, but probably win kore than half the time when called. I think most players short buying here are going to have AQo (12 combos) and KQs (1 combo). Small chance KQo shows up here even. QQ and JJ make sense, but I think a decent amount of short buying villains will jam QQ and even JJ pre. He could have QJs, which is 2 combos, although he shouldn't. Really doubt we see QJo here without you pegging this guy as a very loose player.

People don't always understand the odds they need to set mine, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he could have all the sets here. Even 33 might people flop for small size hoping you have AK. But I think as described vs the population of players you will face, villain will fold a lot of 77, 33, 22 pre. If he did have a set on the flop, I think there is a good chance he check raises.

All things considered, I think you are getting called by worse a bit more than 50% of the time when you jam river.
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06-05-2023 , 12:19 PM
Why are you betting so small otf? We're trying to get stacks in since he's so short, and not let him draw cheaply at the same time.

Turn check was terrible. We don't get kings too often (and vs a short stack) just bet to get more money in while we can.

The jack on the river shouldn't be scaring you so much. Of course he could have JJ, but our hand looks like AK to him. call.
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06-05-2023 , 06:42 PM
Flop you can go small or big.

Always bet turn. By all means make it a 3 street game with a modest bet. But definitely bet.

As played call river.
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06-05-2023 , 07:38 PM
Biggest mistake I made which I realize
Now is flop sizing and turn check compounded the mistake.
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