Join Date: Dec 2022
Posts: 1,689
I think as long as you bet flop, turn, and jam river, you do fine. Sizing on flop and turn is not really critical.
As played I think river is a thin value jam that sometimes will lose a good amount of the time, but probably win kore than half the time when called. I think most players short buying here are going to have AQo (12 combos) and KQs (1 combo). Small chance KQo shows up here even. QQ and JJ make sense, but I think a decent amount of short buying villains will jam QQ and even JJ pre. He could have QJs, which is 2 combos, although he shouldn't. Really doubt we see QJo here without you pegging this guy as a very loose player.
People don't always understand the odds they need to set mine, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he could have all the sets here. Even 33 might people flop for small size hoping you have AK. But I think as described vs the population of players you will face, villain will fold a lot of 77, 33, 22 pre. If he did have a set on the flop, I think there is a good chance he check raises.
All things considered, I think you are getting called by worse a bit more than 50% of the time when you jam river.