$2/$5 game at the casino. 7 players.

Hero (BB) - $500 stack - Early 20's white guy in a hoody. TAG image. Have not been caught bluffing.

Villain (BTN) - $1800 stack - Mid 30's white guy. Dressed nicely. TAG image. Has been caught Cbet bluffing but that's it. Plays fairly ABC.

UTG - $700 stack - Mid 40's Asian guy. Dressed poorly. Plays like a passive fish.

Hero is dealt 75dd in BB

SB posts $2
Hero (BB) posts $5
UTG limps for $5
3 players fold
Villain (BTN) raises to $20
SB folds
Hero (BB) calls $15
UTG calls $15

$55 in pot (3 players)
Flop shows 7c 4h 2s

Hero checks
UTG checks
Villain bets $30
Hero calls $30
UTG folds

$110 in pot (2 players)
Turn shows 4d

Hero checks
Villain bets $55
Hero calls $55

$220 in pot (2 players)
River shows Kd

Hero checks
Villain bets $90
Hero shoves for $395

What do you think about the way I played this hand? Can I credibly rep a boat/trips here? What range do you put the villain on and is he likely to fold here?

I don't really like the bluff for a few reasons.

1. What can you credibly rep here? Hard to see how you have any Ks in your range. You're basically repping a flopped set or 4x, which is pretty thing.
2. Triple barrel from V is pretty polarizing on this board? This is a pretty common bluff line, but you beat his bluffs so don't need to try to out-bluff him.
3. You already have a pair, so what hands are your trying to fold out? Hard to imagine pocket pairs between 88-QQ betting this river once the K hits. So his line is bluffs, monsters, maybe Ks that hit the river and were bluffing before then, and AA. Hard to get him to fold a K that finally hit on the river. Hard to get anyone to fold AA ever.
4. Would you really check river with a monster? To easy for someone to check behind.

More info/ history with villain?

Would you bluff if the river was an 8 9 10 or J?

I guess you have a better chance of it getting through by open jamming rather that the c/r.

1. I am trying to rep trips (64s, 54s, 43s, A4s), quads (44) and boats (22 and 77). I'm never repping Kx here.
2. I was actually thinking that the villain would take a bet/fold line with 88-QQ. If he's a decent TAG, why wouldn't he try to extract thin value with these hands? Also, why wouldn't the villain bet/fold all his Kx hands and AA hands too? He's only beating a bluff with AA and a decent TAG reg should know this.
3. Same as point 2. I expect the villain to bet/fold a lot on the river when he tries to get thin value from my 7x hands and mid pocket pairs.
4. Whether I would or not is irrelevant... what matters is whether the villain thinks I would. Plenty of low stakes live players take this slow-playing line with monster hands like quads.

I just met villain 20 minutes before this hand so I have no real history with him. Yeah I would take this bluff line on basically any river card above a 7.

The issue with open jamming is that I wasn't sure if villain was bluffing or not until he made the river bet (which looked like a thin value bet to me with some 88+ pair trying to get value off 7x or lower pockets). So I thought I had SDV until villain bet just under 50% pot on the river, which made me think I need to either bluff or fold.

On point 2 - Why do you think V's a decent TAG? You say you just met him 20 minutes ago. I think it's unlikely he's value-betting a pair between 88-QQ. That's a very thin value bet, trying to get three streets from 7x when a scare card comes up on the river. Not even sure if it's a good value bet or a better spot to check behind. However, whether or not it's a good value bet, very rare to find people who value bet super thin at 2/5. I'd be more likely to think that he has 88-QQ if he was OOP and made this bet, because then he can be making a blocking bet. In position, he can just check back and realize his showdown value.

So, I think for this hand to make sense you need to get folds from Kx hands, mainly AK and KQ. Problem is that people don't like to bluff two streets, hit their hand, then fold. I'd want more history with V to try that bluff, particularly when I could hero-call and be ahead of his bluffing range. Doubt he's folding AA, getting people to fold AA on boards that aren't super wet is very, very difficult.

On point 4, I think the "standard" line for strong hand OOP here is x/c flop, x/c turn, lead river. Thinking is that you don't want to lose V on early streets, but don't want him to check behind on river. X/c flop, x/c turn, x/r river is a much more rare line. I can't say for sure, but it can be perceived as if someone got to the river and was facing a bet, and realized they couldn't win without making a move.

grunch:
If you had 4x or a boat here, you'd prolly ck/rs turn wouldn't you?
That's def how I'd play the hand here if I wanted to turn this into a bluff.

$130 on the turn, cram the river for $310

IRTM's bluff line is better.

You want to run a multi-street bluff against a guy you have only played 20 minutes with? It sounds like a bad idea. For all any of us know, he's a massive station. You shouldn't be running big bluffs without better reads.

Fold pre >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3! pre >>>>> call pre

You are bluff raising into an uncapped range which is generally a bad idea. There's a decent chance he will bet/fold this river but you are really just taking a wild and expensive stab in the dark with your line.

Seriously though, calling pre is a huge leak.

Good post on all points