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(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. (2/5) Big pot with a huge draw.

04-27-2014 , 10:07 PM
ES are $850.

V1 is somewhat loose-passive and weird. Opens relatively wide and seems to overvalue hands post, but not a calling station. Has a fold button when facing pressure. Seen him call on a flop with AQ high no draw in a pretty bad spot. Fishy tendencies but not overtly awful.

V2 is a mediocre TAG.

Hero: white kid with solid image, TAG image. Only played one big hand and haven't stepped out of line.

Relevant history:
$1000 effective
V1 opens $30, call, V2 calls, H calls BTN with J8ss
Flop J42r (one spade)
V1 bets $50, V2 looks weak and calls, H calls.
Turn Ks
V1 bets $50 (unusual, he had bet strong several times), V2 again shows obvious tells of weakness and flats, H makes it $255. V1 tank folds what he claims is AA, V2 snap folds Jx and says I must have 44, 22, or KJ.


THE HAND
V1 limps UTG, someone makes it $25 in MP, V2 flats CO, H flats BTN with 97cc, blinds call, V1 calls.

Flop ($150)
K87ccd
V1 leads $50, fold, V2 calls, Hero makes it $175. V1 and V2 call

Turn ($675)
6d (BDFD)
c to me, I bet $400, only V1 calls

River ($1475)
Td
V1 shoves, I snap.
(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. Quote
04-27-2014 , 10:14 PM
Seems fine. Feel like you're calling to chop a lot as Kdxd is a decent part of V's range. Still can't fold given the price. It's what? $250 to win $1725? Snap all day.

The turn bet is questionable though I think. You had two villains call your raise, there's a decent chance one of them calls you OTT when that card comes. T9 gets there, but that's about it. It's not like it's a great bluff card. Don't think the bet is bad though.
(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. Quote
04-27-2014 , 10:15 PM
Turn bet is my biggest question about this hand, yeah.
(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. Quote
04-28-2014 , 07:52 AM
I'd rather flat the flop or make the flop bet bigger and try to get it in on the turn given stack sizes.

I'd like your sizing much more if we were deeper.
Given that we will only have $250-$325 behind on the river when we brick we should never be pushing anyone out of the hand with a less than 1/4 PSB. We will get a crying call from almost everything assuming the board doesn't run out too ugly. So, we can never plan to bluff our way out of the hand when we brick out. Which will happen ~50% of the time.

I'd rather go $250-$275 here, expect one caller pot will be $650 on the turn ($850 if both calll as they do now), and we will have $575 left we can just rip it in. With our current flop sizing, we should almost never be nutted here. People would have to call $125 into $425, far better than a good price for any decent draw they are on.

Would we really raise so small with a vulnerable made hand like bottom two, top and bottom, or bottom set? There's ~20 turn cards that we hate, and in theory we should be protecting against them.
(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. Quote
04-28-2014 , 09:40 AM
Based on your reads, the flop bet is too small. After you call the $50 your raise is only $125 into a $300 pot. For that amount I don't think you can expect flush draws or weak kings to fold.

Villain 1's bet looks like a king with a weak kicker betting to see where he is at or a flush draw trying to set the price to draw. Villain 2's flat includes same hands as Villain 1 pus a lot of weaker hands, mainly second pair or straight draws.

I'm all for raising weak donk bets on the flop, I think it's profitable with ATC but if you're going to do it you're sizing needs to look like a strong hand where the board presents a couple of credible draws as here. If it is a dry board I think you can get away with sizing your raise smaller.
(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. Quote
04-28-2014 , 10:43 AM
turn bet seems big because if we miss we have almost no fold equity and kind of have to just fold or check back.

otherwise wp
(2/5) Big pot with a huge draw. Quote

      
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