Bet fold 200 on turn. Spot still really sucks which is why I advocate folding on flop. Ap I'm assuming he has a draw and betting accordingly unless he raises in which case he probably has 86 or a set.

fold the flop

generally speaking quiet players aren't check raising light or with draws unless they can ship the turn when called (whcih he can't)

the deeper you are, the more ABC a player is the more a flop chr range is pushed upwards towards the nuts

I think that folding on this fairly wet flop is incredibly weak, since Villains always put the preflop raiser on whiffed overcards. In addition, just because the Hero can't recall much of the Villain's play during the prior four hours (when Hero was away from the table a fair amount) means only that the Villain likely isn't LAGgy, not that he's a nit. Furthermore, it is entirely possible that Villain was planning to either call or fold if the BB called the c-bet; now that it is HU the Villain could easily be making a play with a PP or a draw.

In these situations, I've had good luck getting Villains to fold (to my whiffed overcards) with 3-betting the flop and then making a solid bet on the turn. However, calling the flop and then reevaluating the turn is fine also. But I think that simply folding to this HU c/r is terrible unless the Villain is a known nit.

Check on the turn looks a lot like 99-QQ scared of KK/AA, or a FD/OESD that was trying to buy a free card on the flop by raising. I'd go $225ish on the turn.

I hate the term "ITS WEAK"

the term is exploitable, and yes it is very exploitable but most players aren't exploiting us

^^^ this

agreed

yeah bet/f the turn, if he calls and the river bricks ship the river

I should have also made it clear that just because I was at the table, doesn't mean the villain was. I think he had been there around 45 minutes to an hour, but I had only noticed one hand he played. As mentioned I was also getting up and leaving the table for an orbit or two the last hour+.

After we bet $200 on the turn, we are going to fold if the V pushes on a 8623 board after he checked the board after a check-raise? His range is so strong to 99-JJ or clubs even after if he did put you all-in on the turn (we only have to be right on the downside of his range 28% of the time). Calling $375ish for a $1325 pot on a low board. I can’t see how this can be +EV, even after the V check/raises. As much as I like b/b/b lines or b/f, I think I would check behind on this one if I was intending to b/f with some real equity in the hand.

I wouldn't fold but I play big overpairs like the nuts just about every time. If V has a set or two pair when it is pretty obvious that hero has JJ+, why would he check the turn and miss out on the chance to get all-in by the river? The way he played this hand looks exactly like JJ, testing the flop and then giving up on the turn.

Very good analysis in this thread.

Result: My initial inclination was a combo draw of some sort, and checking the turn made me feel stronger about that, so I bet 175. He check raised to 425. A double check raise?? WTF??

After debating it for a minute, I elected to fold and save my last $400.

After the hand he told me he had 7c5c, which I didn't really believe. I left the table for a while and came back about 15 minutes later. As villain was racking up, he volunteered to me that he had 66. I hadn't acted pained when coming back to the table and never mentioned the hand before that, so him volunteering the info in that way made me more likely to believe him.

Thanks for all the responses!

yeah I mean people don't double chr with a combo draw (even though it is a good line if you have the FE)

seriously though, flop is a fold versus villain description

Note to self: start double c/r my whole wet flop c/r range against TAGs and tighter.....

Maybe he was going for the trifecta. I wouldn't believe any of what he said he had personally...

this

Checking back this flop is lighting money aflame.

Against this guy I would probably agree with most and fold this board with queens because even if he has NFD or a combo draw it's basically a flip.

That was a weird line from him. A double c/r is quite rare in live 2-5 because most players aren't aggro enough that you can depend on them to bet. I am not sure if I have ever seen a double c/r semibluff without some weird history.

However I dont like his line unless he gets you to call his second c/r with an overpair which you made a good fold here. I think he could have made the same amount if not more with a c/r flop, bet, bet line. So, it sucks but I think you played the hand fine with the possible exception of folding to the flop c/r but that decision was close.

Deleted my duplicate post.

I think folding here is super MUBSy. We're basically folding the 4th best reasonable hand because someone checkraised our Cbet heads up, when when the bottom of our perceived range is air.

Without knowing his limp calling tendencies or really anything about the villain, it's hard to give him such a narrow PF range, especially with deep stacks.

On the flop, he probably expects you to Cbet pretty often so he should not be particularly concerned about your bet after the other player folded.

A set is a possibility, but a lot of people would never checkraise a set here. There are a couple TP combos and some OP combos where he really just wants to get the hand over with.

He also might do this with a big draw. For those saying its a coinflip, it's not a coinflip for him to make his draw *on the next card* and you have position.

Here's the line I would take:
Call the flop.
If the turn is an ace, king, 7 or club and he fires again, you can fold. If he checks you check behind, and then feel out the river.
If the turn is a blank and he fires again, you should call again, but I would fold the river to a third bet. If he checks on a blank, you should probably bet the turn and check behind on most rivers.

Think of it like this:

There's $75 going to the flop and over $700 behind. This is not quite good enough to stack off. With like $500 behind, an overpair of queens is good enough to stack off because JJ or 1010 might put $500 into a $75 pot.

If you put like $300 of your stack in or so, then fold, that's probably a mistake. Once nearly half your stack goes in, your committed.

By calling his $150 raise, you are not committed. It's ok to call flop to see what he does on the turn. It's ok to call with a plan of folding to a big turn bet. Some people will say something like, "just fold flop. He'll always bet turn anyway and you'll fold then. Why not save $100 and fold flop." This hand is proof that those that say this are wrong. He doesn't bet turn 100% of the time...he didn't bet in this actual hand.

Since you don't want to commit, check turn for pot control. This is a perfect example of a good spot to pot control with one pair.

Sure he might have a draw...but that's probably less than 30% of his range. The other ~70% consists of either sets, 2 pair, smaller overpairs, or stone bluffs.

Just saw the follow up on the turn action.

This is one of those turns I would be betting. If he has a set, checking the turn is a weird thing for him to do. Your call should indicate you either have a big pair or the club draw, so there's no reason for him to slow down.

Most likely he has the club draw himself, or a hand like JJ,TT,99, or some odd 8x hand.

I would bet like 225 or so, because I think he can make an incorrect call with any of those hands.

Of course we are committing ourselves with this bet, but I don't think we are ever getting checkraised here and I think he would fold that range to a shove.

By the way, if you fold QQ here it makes it so villain has a profitable bluff c/r here 100% of the time with his entire range. If you'll only continue with sets or flush draws, then 95% of the time he wins $150 (or however much the pot was after you bet) and 5% of the time he loses $150.

Just saw the result. Wow, I'm slow today.

Honestly? I would believe 75cc easier than 66.

The preflop action makes more sense with 66, but flop and turn make more sense with 75cc.

Information from bigger bets tends to be more reliable and the longer a person has to think, the more likely it is that he's lying.