2/5 Borgata

Villain ($500) 60's white guy chomping an unlit cigar. He seems to be REALLY loose/passive. He lost 1-2 buyins by c/c down 3 streets with stuff like top pair no kicker and losing to 1 pair hands. Hasn't really raised postflop at any point that I've seen, so I assume his raise in this hand is at least 2 pair if not a stronger hand. He also doesn't like to fold.

Note: After this hand I saw a bunch of hands that changed my read somewhat. Please first comment given this read, and then let me know if your play on the river changes based on those hands.

Hero (covers) Late 20's white guy. Playing generally tight with a good, winning image. Won a few medium/big hands without showdown, but also showed big hands (AA, TPTK etc) a few times when guys folded to me or when it got to the river.

Villain (UTG) limps
MP limps
sb completes
Hero (BB) T3 checks

pot~20
Flop: QT9
everyone checks

Pot~20
Turn: QT97
sb checks, hero bets $10, villain raises to $35, MP folds, sb folds, hero calls $25

It might have been an ambitious bet I guess. Given that villain is pretty stationy, I think he has a straight, a big 2 pair or some weirdly played set (or I guess 77 which setted the turn).

I'm calling $25 to win $65 so i'm getting 2.5-1 and I'm 20% to hit so I only need 4-1 (4x the bet, or another ~40 or so). I think it's a pretty easy call.

Pot~90
RiverQT974
Hero?

I hit one of the best possible cards. I think I should bet out as given that he seems passive (up to this point) he might check back strong hands just to get to show down. But how much to bet?

I could bet something like $75, but what do you guys think of an overbet here? If the guy is really bad and stationy, can he really fold a straight here for any amount?

What do you guys think of betting out like $140 or something here? Or is that way too much?

-------------------

Now for the new read:

After this hand, villain starts to spazz spew off with ok absolute value but horrible relative value hands.

He c/c twice on a J33J board with 66, and then donk shoves when a 6 hits on the river for about $250 more b/c I guess he thought he had a good FH or something.

Villain limp/called A3o preflop, then c/c a KT3 flop, check/raises a Ace turn, and then shoves the river when a low card that brings in a backdoor flush comes.

I think there was another hand that was about equally spewy that I can't remember now.

Again I didn't see any of this until after the hand. IF I saw this before the previous hand played out, what do you think about a check/shove on the river?

I don't think villain ever has a flush, and if I check given his spewyness I think he would bet 2 pair plus on the river, and once he bets can he ever fold even if I shove?

Before I answer all your questions. My default line would be to c/r a small flush on this river.

I had a situation like this happen to me the other day.

It was at $1/$2 and vs a lady that had $300.00 behind her on the turn where she bet out $50.00 into a $60.00 pot.

I definitely didn't have pot odds, but I had position and an OESD. I knew if I hit my straight card she wasn't going to see it. She was afraid of the flush. I knew if I hit she would bet out as long as it wasn't a diamond.

I hit my straight, she bet out $100.00, I put her all in for $300.00, she insta called with her two pair.

You could bet out $150-$200 here and he might THINK YOU ARE BLUFFING/LOOK YOU UP.

I'd bet $150.00.

I really hate the c/c lead otr without the nuts. When you advocate leading are you b/f. An overbet should never get called. I will rather take a c/r line. He will put money in otr, when you raise he will say "I can't fold now he could be bluffing me".

I like a spaz lead with the nuts but not with T high.

What if he is the type of villian that refuses to bet when any obvious river straight or flush card hits? There's a good % of fish that are like that. I know a backdoor flush isn't as obvious, but a lot of villians don't like making pots any bigger than they have to be when a flush is on the board or board is paired...

When going for a c/r and we miss value. When we show down the winning hand. The table will be shocked we checked the river and think we are going for a c/r.

People always say "you was trying to trap me". Or if I see a stunned face I will say "I was trying to trap you".

I use that information to raise in position as bluffs later on. Even though the situation was totally different, lmao.

But, what happens when Villain checks behind? You've lost a heap of value.

Hero is beaten by: KJ/J8/QJ/KQ/AQ

We should be able to cut the TPTK/GK combos because Villain didn't raise either preflop or flop.

So, that means we are left with 2 combos: KJ/J8.

Bet/folding is not really an option, even, perhaps, if we don't over-bet.

By the way, agree that over-bet makes sense against this type of villain with your sort of hand.

c/r all day

I like check raising because the river too because i think that most of his range is 2pair hands and sets so i think he will bet those hands and call a raise but i definetly think we should fold to a shove if he shoves over our 3bet(with the new read its close to whether you should call a shove or not) I just wouldnt expect most villans to shove without a flush that has us beat.

All I saw from this guy before this hand played was that he was a massive LP station.

Stations check back J8 here because they think we hit the flush. Why am I check/raising the stone nuts (unless he had a straight with a flush draw)?

If he has Q7 here a station isn't going to bet the river.

I think c/r is pretty sexy given your current reads that he wouldn't raise the turn without a strong hand. I think he's almost always betting when you check then.

I just turned a 23456 straight with 5/6 suited in a 7 way limped pot and I knew one of the 3 villians left in the pot had A5 on a A 2 3 4 board.

There was only $30.00 in the pot, I bet out $30.00, villian calls.

River is a blank. $90.00 in the pot. I bet out $200.00 into this slicked backed honkey call station.

He says, only thing I can't beat is 5/6, I call.

He now has $200.00 less to buy hair gel.

The right moron will call huge overbets in these spots.

great spot to checkraise the river. A guy like this doesnt raise a flush draw and is generally oblivious to anything except his own hand. The river probably looks like a complete brick to him. Check, and then overbet raise,

Ha this sounds like Mike, always chews on a cigar when he plays. Was he skinny & grayish short hair?

I like an overbet here to about 120 or so. It's not worth risking value against a passive opponent, we can't expect him to value bet when hardly anyone does it correctly. They just like to get to show down and say "I was scared you might have the flush". If he raises it's just a B/F, it's possible he raises the turn with pairs that have a flush draw. I do the same with new reads, still very possible he would check back two pairs and even possibly straights. I just value bet fish, not hope that they will bet so I can c/r.

I c/r more than most but I think I'd lead full-pot here.