Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Shorn7: Ding ding ding. MW pot is way more protected than HU. Biggest reason we can flat flop and fold to a turn shove.
Thanks to both of you for your patience ITT. IMHO, this is a super-complex spot and well worth studying more.
Let me ask you both to do a "thought experiment" here. What would you pay the Hero in this situation to take over his position "pre-$100 flat decision" in this hand? Would you pay $100? Or a lot less?
I don't want to get hung up on the specific terminology of SPR because my misuse of it obscures the essential point. This pot is most likely not getting checked down to the river because either 1) Brick will turn and V1 will jam to deny equity offering H and V2 2-1 to call; 2) V2 will improve and he will jam offering the same 2-1 or 3) we will bink A/Q and we will jam offering 2-1. If the players who improve ott don't jam, they're making a serious "fundamental theorem" error. (If the scenario doesn't change, why wouldn't V1 make at least the same 1/2 PSB ott? In that case, it's all likely going in otr.)
What does the matrix of payoffs look like here? (you can probability-weight them as you see fit - V1's range dominates this process for branch 1; H's bink rate dominates branch 3 and is clear, the other branches are more subjective):
1) we pay 100 to call down V1's likely 400 jam to win an 850 pot how often against V1's range (assuming V2 folds)? We have to be good vs. V1 50%+ to make this branch EV+. V2 also calls some percentage and sucks out or has us crushed from the jump. We fold incorrectly (nb shorn7) some percentage too! This first branch is the most likely branch and I have a hard time making it EV+.
2) Assume V2 improves and/or jams ott. I think it can be safely argued that the turn improves V2 as often as it helps us. We fold (correctly or incorrectly) some percentage, call V2 correctly some percentage (when V1 folds), get beat by both V1 and V2 some percentage and get beat by one of them some percentage. We beat both all-in otr some small percentage. Is this branch EV+?
3) We bink and jam and get no callers and take it down. We bink, jam and get called by one/both and MHIG. We bink, jam and lose some percentage to one or both. I think this branch is clearly EV+ but we bink only 13%.
4) We invest another 100, it's checked down to the river (mirabile dictu) and MHIG or we lose to a timid Villain. I doubt this branch is EV+ but it's debatable and it's the least likely branch.
The summation of these "branches" has to be EV+. We could debate this endlessly I suppose, but I cannot get there.
Thanks you guys again for a great conversation!
So I am not exactly sure what you are asking on "how much would I pay pre-decision". Are you asking what $ amount would I pay to get to see a flop with my hand IP right now? Or are you asking would I gladly change spots with Hero on the flop before V1 bets $100?
As far as your outcome tree, i think there are a few pretty big flaws. Biggest one is that V1's range is so good that he will auto lead the turn after being called on a pretty wet board in two spots. If he is good as you say, he will not lead AK/JJ/TT/99 from his PF raising range as he needs to be concerned that he has been outflopped. Yes he jams with AA/KK/QQ/AQ or also if one of this other hands improves on the turn. But the former group of hands FAR outweighs the latter in combinatorics (30 [6 JJ/TT/99 each + 12 AK] vs 12 [3 AA, 6 KK, 1 QQ and 2 AQ]. Given that range (which seems pretty reasonable for an UTG player), it is 2.5x as likely that we are AHEAD on the flop and not behind. And given V was called in 2 spots, continuing to bluff weaker hands with a low SPR would be suicidal. If he is good as you say, he will recognize that he is likely to be called in at least one spot OTT and therefore won't bluff anywhere near enough to make Hero's call OTF anything but +EV.
So, when he DOES jam the turn, then we can safely assume he has a hand that beats us (unless a Q or A falls where we would be forced to call) and we save $300. Our relative position is imperative in this spot as well since not only do we get to see the turn card for $100, but we get to see how BOTH players react and their action on that card. That alone is worth probably $50 of the $100 call.
One other thing on SPR's. IMHO, it is a very good to help you determine what types of hands to play preflop as well as how to size our bets for those hands, especially in 100BB capped games. I don't view it as a very good way to make decisions in MW pots postflop as there are way too many other variables and pieces of information that we can use in order to make better decisions than just deciding "my SPR is under 2, so i am committed".
Anyway enjoyed the discussion and look forward to OP's decision.
Shorn7
