Villain MP - young college aged kid who is playing aggressively but not recklessly. getting into a lot of pots in his hour at the table but seems to know what he's doing. Doubled me up AA vs. QQ all in pre flop. Lost a big pot with a set of Qs vs. rivered flush. Then doubled himself up getting it in with the nut flush draw on the flop and hitting.

Hero covers
Villain - 1500

2/5 9 handed Utg straddle to 10 (Utg last to act pre-flop)
Utg + 1 calls 10 folds to MP who makes it 50 hero looks down at AhQs on the button.
Hero calls. Straddle calls. Utg + 1 calls.
Note: as players are folding the Qc is accidentally exposed and revealed to all as a dead card.

Flop 4 ways (207)
Qh7d2h
Checks to MP who bets 65
Hero thinks and decides to call.
Other players fold.
Turn 5c (337)
MP bets 225
Hero Calls
River 6h (787)
MP checks
Hero ??

With the Ah in our hand, do we bet here and for how much?


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Im not sure what you beat would call a bet. KQs QJs 4 combos? There are more combos of AA and KK than that. Maybe a combo of 77. Seems like a check back spot unless you think he has KQo here or JJ-88 would give enough combos of calling bets around $200-$275

Whatever you do, you should decide on the turn if you want to turn your hand into a bluff if the flush hits on the river and he checks.

Somebody who is playing relatively straight forward usually has a decent to strong value hand here. The other two players in the hand are relevant though. For example, some players would never bet 30% with a flopped set against weak competition here. That said, we don't even know if he ever has a flopped set here because a lot of players wouldn't raise 22 pre, some wouldn't even raise 77 and QQ is impossible.

It's probably a bad thing that it's very unlikely for him to have AQ or KQ. The Ah blocker helps because he'd be unlikely to fold AA if he had that card in his hand.

Looks like one of those spots where we check behind, he tables KK and we hate life because he might have folded that.

EDIT:

I'm confused. We never have a value bet here, right?

Yes i agree with everything you said. Bluff or nothing. The problem is he checked and usually AA or KK are calling off a PSB here as a bluff catcher. I check back close to 100%.

Just as the exposed Q makes it less likely he has KQ, it also makes him think JJ/TT are more likely good and value betting those hands. So there is a case to check back and take our equity.

On the other hand, perfect river to bluff. We will have all lower sets in our range, the nut flush blocker, and QQ is impossible. A good player might find a fold with KK/AA to a shove.

Me personally? Probably wimp out and check back but I think shoving here is best play.

Oh man, I really like all our options here:

1- check back—Villain will never call a bet with worse once the flush hits, he’ll either fold his air or call us with 77/AA/KK.

2- Bet 40% pot— Specifically targeting crying calls from Villain’s 88-JJ/ KQ hands that have a heart in them.

3- Overbet shove- Turn our hand into a bluff, specifically targeting his AA/KK/AQ hands. This could have the added benefit of occasionally getting called by worse (if Villain assumes the overbet size is polar—we have the nuts or nothing—he can level himself into a call with JJ.)

I strongly suspect the EV difference between these three choices is negligible, so the question just becomes: how much variance do you like?

Because I’m going Option 3 all day long!

AP, river: We have minimal medium value with which we arrive to the river. So V is WAWB when front-door draw hits and V logically checks, especially since the exposed Q reduces the combos of AQ we should have.

Therefore, I politely disagree with Davomalvolio: I don't think a 40% PSB does us any good because both V's and H's ranges are so compressed by the river.

If we check, we are almost always behind, especially since we have the Ah. So we can only check if we think V is capable of two barrels with JJ.

So it's really bluff or give up. Can this V fold KK? If we jam, we offer him ~8-5 to call. With AA this is an easy call for him. With KK it's much tougher.

From my desktop, this is a jam with the Ah. But live, throwing $1500 hard-earned American dollars into the middle here is tough at $5/gl gasoline.

If we are almost always behind, do you believe H should fold turn?

Hm. I actually think a good Villain should be betting this Turn with JJ-TT (no Heart) a decent percentage of the time. Especially with the Q exposed a very large portion of our continuing range is going to be flush draws or 88-JJ. I actually would go so far as to say V checking JcJs on the Turn is a mistake. If we are V with JcJs we should be thinking we likely have the best hand and should be betting to deny equity to NFDs.

Im 3betting this pre

In game im most likely just checking this back

A jam is cool though, most likely what the solver would do.

I likely 3-bet PF.

AP, I think this is a clear check back or shove decision. If you bet 1/2 pot, he’ll call with all his AQ/KK/AA hands, fold worse PPs and only give us value from KQ.

If we shove he hopefully folds out overpairs and AQ.

I probably check back here in real time expecting to lose often. I only pull the trigger on the shove if I have some degree of confidence he’ll fold overpairs, which it seems like we don’t have.

Agree with a lot of the points here and appreciate the discussion. Likely needs to be a shove to get KK to fold and I don't think he is folding AA.
Does KK find a bet on the river? In hindsight, I lean towards this villain betting KK for value and think KK may be more likely to bet, where AA may be more likely to check/call.

Results: Hero checks. Villain tables AQ diamonds.

This is embarrassing but I was distracted by the Qc being exposed at the same time I was looking at my hand and didn't realize I was holding the Ah until after tabling my hand. I had thought about the value in betting the river to give the appearance of hitting the flush based on the flow of the hand and villain's body language but decided it was not worth it as I was worried about value owning myself against KK/AA.

After villain turns over AQ, and realizing I had the Ah in my hand, it felt like I may have flubbed a clear opportunity. I think ripping it in is probably the slightly more optimal play, but it's good to know that others think this is not a slam-dunk and checking back is okay too.


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1/3 pot is okay.

Usually with AQ on the button looking to reraise preflop and get it heads up or if we take down the blinds/ straddle and the 50 dollar open that’s fantastic too

Read the comments..

v is an aggro young kid . It’s live
Poker don’t think most 2/5 players are folding 99-JJ for a 1/3 pot sized bet.

Interesting hand. I definitely 3bet pre vs the villain as described.

AP on the river I think our hand is too good to bluff with from a range construction perspective. I think we can save our all in bluffs for the times where we also don’t have top pair top kicker. Shove is high variance fancy play syndrome, imo. I like a check back.


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