I think you're making his range way to large here. I don't think hes c-betting that much with a complete wiff (All PP's that aren't a set)

No, he didn't show and an orbit later he flopped a boat, check/called flop, checked turn, then fired a PSB OTR and got called.

Then he got up and went to play 2/5 deepstack.

If he went to play 2/5 deep, he might have been full of it on the flop; however, if you just called, I'll bet he was firing turn 99% of the time.

I'd call, 3b, or fold - in order of likelihood. But what's more interesting is that if he had you pegged as tight enough to fold AQ here, he can probably also assume you're pre flatting range is decently narrow. So if you would always 3b AK pre, he can make this bet on this board with ATC and be massively profitable. Basically if you don't have 99 you're folding everything.

that´s all assumptions with not much reasoning behind imo; you talked about being readless, and folding this spot otf being readless is super exploitable and very bad; i guess your default calling range readless otf in this spot is slowplayed 99/66 and that´s about it then

what makes things worse, we aren´t readless. we know he´s capable of raise/folding after a huge overraise in a WA/WB situation. very similar to this spot.

i´m not saying i´m calling down now come what may, although i likely will tbh since he seems to be a btn clicker at best and we are very high up in our range, but we got to at least call otf and see what he does ott

folding is just mubsy, and calling pre and folding otf is super bad. he put you in an uncomfortable and unfamiliar spot by betting more than pot on a board like that, but just autoassuming a guy all we know about is that he makes big bets and is capable of folding to further agression has us crushed here by default is not how nlh should be played, i think. i´m bad at this game, but i´m quite certain i´m right about that.

I would have folded pre unless I knew this guy would open wide and c-bet. If I knew that, I might 3bet or call and play poker. If our read is this guy bets big and folds to aggression, why not raise on the flop? If you are going to call the flop, I hope your plan is to call most turns and rivers.

I really am trying to learn what size bet you guys are calling on the turn after flatting the flop. With the one read we have, this seems like the type of guy to fire big on the turn, too, so if we are calling pre and flop, we have to call turn, right? I just can't imagine passively calling this guy down and I can't imagine calling on the flop and folding on the turn -- seems like bad poker, but maybe you guys are winning by just calling people down?

My statement about range was more concerning a typical fish overbetting a pot...we don't have really any reads on this player and I simply don't want to find out for my stack. This is an instance where I would play safer and wait for a better spot/have more info.

hard to make top pair

Villain's like this don't stick around long enough for you to have a better spot. Strike while the iron is hot.

I know I've been gone for a few months, but did I miss something where we're just turning AQ into a bluff when IP? Why is everyone saying fold pre? Because we saw V raise big with (presumably) top pair or better?

Call pre is fine. I wouldn't mind a 3b every once in a while.

Call flop and see what he does OTT. This is why being IP is so valuable. If you guys are playing in games that are so tough that this is NEVER AJ/KK/QQ, you need to find better games. This is "HURRR DURR GONNA FIND OUT WHO'S GOT THE ACE...WELP GUESS NO ONE" plenty enough times to make flatting with AQ acceptable.

Why can't anyone tell me what they are doing on a blank turn when this guy fires again?

Because it depends how much he bets.

If he overbets the pot again, $250+ then it is likely you are behind and you can get away out 40 BB's.

If he slows down and bets something like 1/2 PSB or ~$100, then I am calling it down and likely calling a river bet as well.

If the V is good and understands pot commitment and has AK and bets $150 OTT and $250 OTR you are going to lose some money and that's just poker.

Show me someone that's never lost AQ to AK and I'll show you someone that's missing tons of value.

This.

You cannot play good poker AND win 100% of the hands you play. Sometimes you lose hands. If you play with a properly sized bankroll, this should be a run of the mill bump in the road.

I totally agree, but calling someone down when you've seen them play one hand does not seem like good poker to me.

If I am wrong, that's fine. Probably not something I'm going to start doing against a relative unknown, though.

this is a standard preflop call and a standard flop call. yes it's an overbet, but we saw just in one hand previous that villain raised a 45 dollar bet to 200 on J55 with what we believe to be QJ. I believe this means villain overvalues his hands and bombs to protect. I put Ax in villain's 'bomb to protect' range.

you use the information that you have at hand. the single hand in question is a pretty damn good hand on which to build a profile of villain.

And the profile I build of villain is very aggressive and over-bets, so that's what I'm expecting on the turn if we just call flop. Is anyone calling a close-to-pot-size or bigger bet on turn?

Because raising to fold out all the hands you're ahead of is the play of a complete fish.

Because raising to fold out all the hands you're ahead of is the play of a complete fish.

Why is calling with what is likely the best hand a disaster?

If you find yourself behind in these spots very often it's probably because you try so desperately hard to make everyone fold all their worse hands.

I don't think anyone is advocating calling him down. Call the flop. If he overbets the pot on the turn, so be it, you can decide to fold then, but I'm going to make him overbet the pot twice before I'm convinced. Tons of players bomb the flop because it's the cheapest street to make a move like that.

Everything I've written is based on this situation with this Villain. I wouldn't be here.

And, yes, someone has advocated calling him down. Are you folding to a 1/2 pot turn bet? Are you then folding river for 1/2 pot?

We have one read on the villain: he is aggressive and over-bets (although we've seen only one card and only one hand). Why do you think he's going to slow down on the turn if you just call flop?

If your read is that he's going to fire 3 barrels with his whole crappy range, then yeah, we should just call him down. I don't think we really have enough info to make that read though, given that the baseline random villain is pretty hesitant to make large dollar-value bets without big hands.

Actually opposite, villain's like this crave action...he's not going anywhere. Classic example of overplaying AQ against an opponent you have little to no knowledge of. If you are happy stacking off with Top pair+2nd kicker against unknown....then we just have different viewpoints. Unless you've seen him do this multiple times, I suggest waiting on calling off.

So calling a flop c-bet with top pair 2nd kicker is now considered overplaying your hand? Because all I've advocated thus far is calling the flop and reevaluating on the turn.

And I think it's much more likely this type of V goes bust before you trap him with the nuts.

You advocated more than just re-evaluating. You are calling down unless he basically over-bets.

Right. Call and EVALUATE. We have no idea what V is going to do on the turn and anyone in here saying he will 100% bomb it is just wildly speculating. If he keeps it small I am *likely* calling it down. If he has AK, so be it.

But we are trying to form a profile of this villain and all we have to go off of is his one previous hand where he got too aggressive and then folded. Sometimes calling for information is the cost of doing business and it doesn't hurt that we have that little thing called top pair 2nd kicker in our back pocket to fall back on.

If you call this preflop only to fold a standard flop c-bet you should stand up, remove yourself from the poker room and tell the casino to ban you because you are just burning a hole in your pocket.

Calling pre and folding when hitting top pair 2k is a massive leak. If you do this once an hour (or more often when you don't hit top pair) that alone is enough to turn you from a marginal 4 BB/hr winner into a break even player.

fwiw i'm pretty sure i'm calling villain down unless he open ships the turn.