2/5 AQ in EP with Top 2 Pair - Page 3 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

My reason for checking is basically that villain will often bet the river with one pair hands that would have folded on the turn, so in this case I'd rather "look scared" than overrep.

And he has a flush so often here anyway...

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08-18-2012 , 12:44 AM

#52

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,420

Yeah I think if we had more behind it becomes a really clear check but I just don't see villain ever betting the river with a worse made hand. I almost feel that if we check the turn we have to fold to a river bet and check behind if he checks.

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08-18-2012 , 12:59 AM

#53

Mismo

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 167

Quote:

And he has a flush so often here anyway...

no one has a flush anywhere often... with a three flush on board, there are only 46 combos of flushes possible in a range assuming someone plays every single suited hand.

Against a wide flop peeler, like an any pair, pair+d, gutter, etc., type range, flushes make up a very small percentage of their hands when the 3f rolls off.

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08-18-2012 , 01:28 AM

#54

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,420

He isn't peeling the flop super light though, like he isn't a total spewtard he is just a wealthier player. He knows that UTG might reraise here so he has to have a "big hand" and he knows I probably have a "big hand" as well so it isn't like he is just shipping money into the pot with nothing.

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08-18-2012 , 01:38 AM

#55

canoodles

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 7,017

I think we're making this a little more complicated than it needs to be. Good analysis on the EV of shoving against ranges for sure, but I think we can be surprised and see some stuff we wouldn't expect too. I think it's a shove, especially if he'll 3b the flop with

s a lot. Only reason I would check is if I was hoping to get to showdown and planning on folding to a river shove, but I think there's a lot of value in shipping here.

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08-18-2012 , 03:00 AM

#56

PFunkaliscious

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 3,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11t

Can you call a river shove though?

it only took to post 22, but we finally got there. that is the key in this hand.

cold calling 100 against 2 players looks like a flush draw almost every time.

I would call bets on the river for 100 and less. I would definately fold for 150.

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