Prehand Descriptions
Villain 1: mid 20s, thinking reg. TAG'ish I would guess he plays online
Villain 2: irrelevant
Hero: Moved to new table 2 orbits ago. Hasn't played anything significant yet although I play LAG usually. Little history with any of the villains. Table seems tight in the few hands I saw so far. No short stacks.


$2/5 NL (8 handed)
CO Hero ($740)
Button V2 (~$400)
SB (~$500)
BB V1 (~$900)

Hero is dealt Q7

Folded to Hero who opens to $20 (standard raise), button and big blind call

Flop ($60) 5,10,5
V1 checks, Hero bets $40, V2 folds, V1 raises to $140, Hero calls

I think the main thing I'm afraid of here is a A or K high flush draw. I had a feeling he was check-raising me light given the flop texture and that I'm likely cbetting 100% of my range here. Most of his range here is probably mid pocket pairs, 10x, club draws and possibly 2 overs like AJ or KQ. I'm discounting trips like 56 or A5 because he more likely check calls with them.

Turn ($360) 6

V1 bets out $180, Hero tanks for about 30 seconds and moves all in for $580.
V1 goes into the tank while Hero stares intently at the board trying not to sweat....

I can probably get him to fold any Ace highs, mid pocket pairs like 88, possibly any 10x; there's only very slim chance he folds weak 5x or overpairs. He's not doing this with the nuts, and I'm thinking that he sometimes makes this move with thin holdings. He has to call another $400 to win $1120, which prices him out for flush draws. Pair+FD less likely because of the texture of the board.(

I'm repping overpairs and 5x mostly, 10x less so. Risking $580 to win about $540, so he needs to fold more than half the time for this to be profitable (assuming I don't suck out on the river).

Does he fold 50% of the time here?

Could you at least tell us what generic reads V will have on you? Demographics, dress, etc. This will give us an idea if he thinks you're likely to be able to semi-bluff, etc.

I find Vs at LLSNL to be huge unbelievers on paired boards, so I almost never bluff them. I don't mind the c-bet, but when I get c/r'ed by a reg on a paired/flushing board, I can't see calling to try to float. I either fold there or re-raise to maximize FE (usually fold). I disagree about discounting 56s, 45s, and A5s readless. A lot of "TAGish" players will fear the FD and not c/c here. They will either lead out or c/r if they are pretty sure a c-bet is coming.

AP, I don't hate the turn shove. His bet OTT is pretty small, and he likely folds all hands less than 5x.

Why do you think he would check/raise you with Tx or 99-66?

If you have solid reads on V and he plays very straight forward (basically only betting turn and river if he has 5x or better) then I could get behind calling the flop raise. However I doubt that's the case, so you should probably fold. His range is way ahead of ours. I think its pretty optimistic to think he has AJo or any medium strength hands. Much more likely to be a flush draw or 5x imo.

Any history w villain?

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I'm very young asian looking; he may assume I'm overly aggressive but this is our first hand we have tangled in.

Now I think about it, you're probably right in that 5x is very possible, so it's a pretty marginal spot either way.

I agree about people not believing paired boards, but that might also mean less FE. Maybe floating and shoving on the turn is more likely to get rid of 10x or small pocket pairs (vs shoving flop)?

This is super reads based. I agree that a thinking player tends to take a c/r stab on the flop in this spot sometimes. But usually they just c/f a blank turn when you call and it's clear you have something. If you think he's barreling air or playing 88 like a weirdo relatively frequently, then it's all good.

Readless, your demographic is the nut worst to pull this move off. The default read would be that you would do this exact thing.

+1, I'm afraid.

Noted; I suppose no more big bluffs like this in the future without history. A reg at previous session commented that I made a "nitty fold" because he expected "crazy Asian" from me.

I did think (and hoped) that villain here was raising and barreling me light here, although it's more of a gut guess than a great read.

Love this move. Smells like he has JJ or A10. Looks like your repping AA, KK or QQ. If he has a 5 hes gonna call but you'll still have some flush outs.

Hes folding all other hands. Fold equity + your flush outs is over 50% I say.

what ended up happening??

It really depends on his perception of me i guess. I've only ever done this type of move for value but obviously my demographic stereotype would read otherwise. I do think he was enough of a thinking player to lay down something as strong as A10 here since it's tough to put me precisely on a semi-bluff like I had here.

Anyway he tanks for 2 minutes then mucks, flashing his cards to his neighbor (think I saw a two lowish cards, maybe 77 but I didn't press the dealer to make him show everyone). As I'm scooping the pot he asks me if I had 66 and I flash my cards. "Ni Han".

Couple hands later I take another $300 off his stack when he hero-calls my boat on a JJ high board with an underpair.
Tilt equity perhaps?