2/5, effective stacks ~$530, Hero sat down around 15 mins ago and it seems like a juicy game because of the straddler who is very LAGGY, raising almost every hand with any two suited, playing a lot of pots and chipping up in general... table is 6 or 7 handed right now.. Hero is in SB and LAG is UTG

LAG straddles to $10 UTG
V (UTG+2, 70ish year old white chatty guy) calls
folds to Hero in SB who raises to $50 with AA
straddler and V both call

Flop ($157): T 7 2
Hero bets $110, LAG straddler folds, V calls

Turn ($377): 9
Hero ?? (has $370 behind and V slightly over-covers)

Hero has the A...

Preflop I would raise bigger given straddle and caller makes pot $27.50. Given how loose straddler is I would raise to around $70.

Flop if facing straddler I would bet pot intending to gii on a lot of turns all diamond turns included.

When old white guy calls straddle in EP then calls big raise from SB I think he is set mining. We hold Ad so his call on flop is less likely to be a flush draw and more likely to be a set. He doesn't likely have JJ+ as I think he'd raise these preflop instead of flatting the straddle.

Trouble is, why didn't old man raise wet flop with his set?

Looking back at preflop villain can call your raise wider since straddler calls. Therefore I give him more credit for a draw on flop than usual but it still has to be a little unlikely given the poor odds your flop bet gave him and tiny SPR on turn after he calls.

So on balance I think he has sets more often than flushes and straights pretty infrequently. Therefore a shove from you on the turn could fold the best hand (sets) if he is nitty. If it doesn't you have some outs even if he has the flush.

Also if he has played JJ+ weird you could stack a lower over pair, especially one with a diamond.

In conclusion: Shove turn.

I usually agree with Ragequit99.

But not here.

Whenever this line is played against me, I am counting the pot already and visualizing how it will look when stacked in front of me. Eventually, if not this hand, then sometime in the future.

Because this line folds out everything worse and only gets called by better.

Would that all my Villains played this way. Even if I make one big hand an hour I would have to color up just to get to the cashier.

I'm debating between check/call turn and bet/call turn. I think check is maybe slightly better since betting folds out better but I don't think you can fold yet

You are right Noszr - it does fold out some worse hands but in this instance it may also fold better. Also SPR means we cant ever fold so it is just a question of do we think villain is more likely to bet worse hands or call with them. Debatable here...

Bet tiny vs old dude he isn't going to bet for you and there are tonnes of hands with RIO and very little equity vs us.

Don't think he'll call much with TP.

I guess 90-110.

Derail begins:

Forgot to ask: how are you easily going to stack me "sometime in the future" ? Are you going to call pot bets on flops till you make a flush or straight against me? Are you going to set mine when I raise massive preflop?


Apologies, Derail begins:
How are you going to feel when you make your straight or flush only to realise I'm betting my nut draws exactly the same way?

I'm not taking this line with AA without the NFD so you're only going to get it in against me when I hold nut-flushes/straights, sets with boat redraws and over-pairs with nut redraws. Obviously if I weren't taking this line with draws I would expect you could eventually stack me often enough to cover your drawing costs. However, I'm pretty sure by betting my big draws the same I make it impossible for you to profit from my line in the long term. If not please let me know how since this is a commonly used strategy of mine and I'd love to plug any leaks in it!

Derail ends.


However, as I said earlier, you make a valid point that a turn shove folds a lot of hands we beat. What do you think about our shove being able to fold hands that beat us? What do think villain has after flop call?

My read:

Old and chatty = no idea, guessing not as tight as normal old white guys

C/c preflop = not TT+ AK, 99-22 most likely, some SC due to straddle calling.

Call big flop bet headsup leaving 1:1 SPR on turn = unlikely a draw unless he is bad or has one of the few gutshot+FD combos.

Not raising flop = unlikely to have 2-pair+ unless he is very passive.

Ah in our hand = not many FDs for villain.

Conclusion: Confused but suspecting villain has more sets than flushes. Probably cant call any worse hand than ours except QQ/KK with a heart. Potentially could fold a set if he is a nit. strange to think our shove can achieve two contradictory goals but people do make both calling and folding errors. Here I think villain might be capable of both since he can't know we hold Ah. He can talk himself into calling with a draw to the K high flush or he can talk himself into folding a set. Both would be big mistakes and our shove gives him the chance to make those big mistakes while it can never be a huge mistake for us with SPR 1:1.

I haven't heard anyone else give their read on villain's range after he calls the flop bet. You can read mine above. Anyone make any more sense of it than me?

Can a small bet be like a compromise between shoving and x/cing?

Don't want to shove to fold out worse. Don't want to check and miss out on value. Ok. So we bet like 120? Worse can call. Also might induce some spazz from villain.

Also I think his range is definitely waited more towards draws and maybe like 99 and JdJx instead of sets. Sets are raising flop very often. Of course he could have a set, and you have a redraw to the nuts anyway.

What do we know about the old man?

If we go all-in blind before the flop is dealt, Villain only calls with a set, he's only slightly better than breaking even on his set-mine.

Results:

Hero shoved turn, V calls with QJdd and holds.

In retrospect, I don't see how shoving turn can ever be good here. It's more close to check/call a small bet and check/fold to a large one against described V.

Unlucky dude. I think you are in an impossible situation on turn - no good options, only trying to work out what line is least bad.

You may all be right about shoving. It is complicated and I don't know if I'm smart enough to adequately answer it but I shall have a go at some maths and get back to you.

In response to Ragequit's derail:

I see your point.

"...Derail begins:

Forgot to ask: how are you easily going to stack me "sometime in the future" ? Are you going to call pot bets on flops till you make a flush or straight against me? Are you going to set mine when I raise massive pre flop?…"

What I meant was that there are lots of nits (like I can often be, despite occasionally giving or intitating action where the usual OMC won't) who will be in the hand a much higher portion of the time with holdings that you wouldn't want to bomb against.

Yes, we will be pushed out when we don't have the goods.

But we will be "better" on those occasions when we are lucky enough to be the ones calling with better. We might break even hour after hour but even a small heater with other players constantly bombing us will "make our day".

Hard to put some math on that, I suspect.

But I prefer playing OMC when every one else is finding otherwise mathematically sound reasons for calculated aggression.

No disrespect intended!

Shoving turn can be great if V will call with top pair, over pairs, weaker flush draws (ie KdJx, KxJd, JdJx, QdQx etc.), middle pair with a flush draw. The problem is we don't have any useful info at our disposal to make reasonable analysis of this spot. All we have is that this guy is old. That may narrow down a couple variables, but there's more to V than just the fact that he is old.

So... If you think V will semi-bluff all in, when you check turn, then check turn.

If you think he will raise all in with weaker hands when we bet small on turn, then bet small on turn and call his shove.

If you think he never has worse than a set, flush, or straight by the turn, then c/f turn.

If you think by the turn he still has top pair, two pair, over pairs w/ a diamond, SD+FD, sets, flushes, and straights, then bet an amount that prices you in to call his all in. He'll only shove with the top of his range, but you'll still have proper odds to call, while at the same time you're extracting value from the weaker portion of his range.