OP is the only one who throws in the idea this could be a bluff. A bit suprised not more advocate the idea that villain might see hero's raise as a function of BB donking out. I would certainly put AK in hero's range when he raises here and thus might think about making a move here with a hand which has equity. I can't really fold this 100 bb deep and I have regularly seen people at 2/5 playing worse than ppl at 1/2, they just have more money.

what kind of card did he swipe when he sat down?

random unknowns aren't semi-bluff 3betting on their first orbit in my experience

That's where history and reads factor in to adjust your game. However, this is an unknown villain. You have ZERO information on this villain's playing style and are merely stating what you would do in this spot.

To all those advocating anything but a fold this early in a session...it's good to know there is very little FE when one spikes a set against an overpair...I'll have to remember this the next time I have a set

fold u have blocker on nut fd so really only combo draws + sets here from an unknown unless he's crazy

Thank you for the replies everyone. I appreciate it.

Results: I fold. I flip over my hand and show the AA. Villain doesn't make any facial expression and quietly mucks his hand. I just couldn't see him having anything but a set in this spot. My hand is transparent but HUGE. I couldn't see him being that big of a donkey to reraise with JJ or TT. KK or QQ is out because he would've reraised pre almost certainly IMO. That leaves a bluff. I can't see him trying to bluff me off a huge pair. That seems like suicide unless he has a soul read on me. Who folds a huge overpair in this spot at 2/5. Like 2%.

I asked him later what he had and he said AJ. Hence the "WTF" in the thread title. I couldn't believe it and still don't know if I can. For one, why wouldn't he show the bluff? Secondly, this just seems like the worst bluff attempt that actually worked.

More thoughts please....

So much reading fail ITT.

Did he play spewy enough in those multiple hours for you to believe it? Also, showing was bad.

My bad. I need to read these better.

fold

Not really. There was one pot where he check minraised a KQx board and folded to a reraise. Very possibly a spew. He said he put me on TT or JJ and was trying to represent a set. The fact he said TT or JJ and not KK or AA makes it more believable IMO.

I was on table 34 I believe. If at the front desk looking at bobby's room, it's directly to your left in the corner.

AJ seems kind of unlikely considering you had the Ah, also he put you on JJ even though he had a J, meh.

I bet he had a set.

idk what he has and tbh what he has doesn't matter. That'd be results oriented in a way.

Folding is fine but saying that he always 3bets TT JJ is wrong. Always 3betting TT JJ in live games where you rarely get action from some players with worse is a huge waste of a value hand. It's much better to polarize.

I think this spot is close because unknown villains can definitely spazz early on. I'm more likely to bluff/be loose early than middle-late of a session in order to set an image to get paid, not saying that means you should get it in.

Also I do think flatting the donk is "okay" just to disguise your hand a bit and see what the other player does and ALSO to get value from that third player. While you can't protect against a flush, you do get to get more money in with more equity on blank turns.

You misread. I was saying he almost always 3bets QQ or KK preflop. He put me on TT or JJ. It makes it more believable that he was bluffing if he put me on a smaller overpair cause then I could somehow think the guy had a bigger overpair along with a set. Flawed thinking since he cannot have QQ-AA 95% of the time. If he thought he could bluff me off KK-AA, that just seems ridiculous, cause who at 2-5, besides my dumb ass, is folding in that spot?

My mistake. As I said fold is fine.

Has villain ever showed a hand that he bluffed before or after this hand?

If yes, you were probably beat, otherwise...who knows.

As for the action itself, villain could be decent enough to realize that flatting a bet/raise on such flop is pretty much draw or set, and since you're holding Ace of heart, I am leaning toward majority set.

Or he could be leveling you and thinks that you know that he is good enough to know that if he cold calls the raise, his hand is basically faced up, and therefore he squeezes knowing that you know that...

LOL, who cares! Fold and move on.

Using simple "has he ever bluffed before, if yes then he's a bluffer, if no, there's no way he can bluff" is an alarmingly simple way of approaching reads.

You can infer from some reads that a player, even if mostly solid, can or cannot pull moves.

That said this is not even a spot where it's that likely. We're mostly talking about spots where every player's range is capped (ie. checked through flops and turns in 3 way pots) and a player makes a river squeeze.

not enough money went in pre to just blindly get it in on any flop imo, he has seen bet and raise in front, if he's willing to try and push you off all the strength youve shown on his 2nd hand then so be it

but as far as the "in 1/2 i'd get it in all day but in 2/5 i wont" line of thinking i totally disagree, imo 2/5 players are 10 times more likely to be making a move than your random 1/2 player who is usually scared money

i guess on the other hand the 1/2 player may be more likely to go crazy with his overpair of 9's

1/2 and 2/5 players all over the world have different tendencies. Depends on the locale a lot.

You got leveled, no way villain has AJ. My thought on his hand is that he had a set and played it very fast because of the flush draw out there.

IMHO you made the right move by folding, here's why...
I'm a 20 something player and by your description of this guy he seems to look how I do most of the time minus the headphones when I first sit down.

If I sat down and made a move like this with a bluff or even probably semi-bluff with a draw - I'm usually going to show it. I have gone into sessions wanting a spot like this to come up early on so that I get a crazy image which pays off later. The big bluff right off the bat is easy b/c as you said, you have no reads to base what you should do on, and if this guy is smart he now gives you the read that he makes huge bluffs with air. Since he didn't show I think that it's now about 90%+ that you were beat since if he had a set he would want to leave you thinking you laid down the best hand so he gets action later on.

pretty sick if villain was telling the truth although the explanation is kind of silly. terrible show though.

If u reraise preflop I doubt ur ever in this spot

He played it like a set! Even I thought he had a set. Good fold imo.

the worst part of the hand is showing AA

he was ****ing with you, he had a set