Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
So, you expect V to call w/ 56, A6, A7 and maybe a J, but you bluff w/ AK/AQ/KQ? Interesting.
BB is described as loose/wild, not fishy/bad, and he's against two players, one being a tight UTG pre-flop raiser and the other is also a tight player. He'd have to be a complete moron to call with any of those hands. Raise/folding here would be gross, too, if he is capable of shoving as a bluff knowing OP doesn't have a 3 or 74.
If you think AA is good on the turn, why not raise then when V can call w/ a lot more draws?
If we're betting for value, there has to be some worse hands that might call. If we're betting as a bluff, there has to be some better hands that can fold. Our range should include both value and bluffs, with variable bet sizing based on what we're hoping to accomplish, i.e, whether we want calls or folds.
We didn't get much of a description for any of the opponents. "Loose / wild" could just be bad. We're also giving OP the benefit of the doubt that the BB likewise sees the SB as tight. I'm just looking at the BB's line, and trying to figure out how we ought to respond. His line looks pretty fishy / dumb to me.
Instead of doing something "standard", the BB is donking 40% pot into two opponents on the flop, barreling for a little less than 40% on turn, and then down-betting to 4% pot on the river.
That line doesn't make any sense, so I'm willing to think the BB is pretty dumb. But I'm also looking at the SB, and wondering what he has here, that just check-calls flop and turn.
I don't like raising flop because the board doesn't favor our range, we're probably not folding out anything that donks here, the SB might be looking to x/r, and the BB's bet isn't so small that we need to raise for value and protection.
I don't like raising turn because the board still doesn't favor our range, the SB could still be looking to x/r, and the bet still isn't so small that I necessarily want to raise when we're still 3 ways with the SB still left to act. If it was heads-up, I'd raise turn.
On the river, when the SB checks, we can somewhat discount the likelihood that he has a very strong hand that would risk the action checking through. We're the only one in this pot who can rep all the over-pairs, JJ, and TPTK. Both our opponents are pretty capped here, the way this was played.
If we raise river, and either the SB or BB raises, that sucks, but it's an easy fold. But we're going to hate ourselves if we just flat call a 4% pot bet and see our opponents turn over hands that might have called a raise for value. We could pop it to $100, laying our opponents almost 6:1, and not be too concerned about being trapped and pot committed to calling off a raise.
It's hard for me to believe that the BB has a really strong hand when he takes this line. All we're really worried about is the SB slow-playing something, which seems unlikely, unless he flopped or turned a boat, and has been slow-playing it the whole way, even though it was a two-tone and straightening board.
