any pre-flop 3b dynamic going on at the table?
What position are you in?
Any reads on villain besides internet tag?

AP if you flat flop, you're obv not worried about made flushes, so the J is an excellent card for you to bluff-catch V due to both card removal, and that he rarely (if ever?) 3!'s AJ w/out a OTF.

River shove is pretty terrible, I'd either bet small to induce or check behind.

I generally try to put people on various hands and deduce as more information comes in.

Here is my analysis.

Here is what villain is thinking of hero. This guy seems to be very tight because he's playing less than 5-10% of hands. So tight that he may also be weak and subject to bluffs. I believe he is weak because very tight players are often weak. Why are they weak? They are weak because they refuse to play hands that have higher risks associated with them.

Hero raises to $20 which likely means AK/JJ+, probably on the higher end of the range. As villain I can call a reasonably wide range because I can put pressure on the weak raiser (and probably must do that to see how hero is going to react to pressure). Villain is calling 5s-10s, Ax suited, but not JJ/QQ/KK/AA ever. Villain may be calling with KQ/KJs but less likely AKs or AK os.

Hero leads out a continuation bet. Villain has not seen continuation bets but expects AA/KK/QQ to many times check in this position on a scary board. Why would hero be building a pot with an overpair on a scary board. He would have to have a monster to do this. Hero's range of monsters is only JJ, AKd. So villain has the choice to:
1. Fold--bad because villain hit the board with, most likely, a jack
2. Call--terrible play regardless of villain's holdings
3. Raise--that's the ticket and villain can be doing this light because he reps a huge made hand against hero's range and has some FE against a potentiall weak tight player

So as hero I am facing a raise, which is what I think villain should be doing often anyway. So as hero I am starting to think villain has a diamond and a jack. But not two diamonds. My view of the most likely holding for villain is AJd or KJd or a bluff.

Against these three hands I have villain crushed. I worry very little about a set here, but it is a possibility.

So as hero I am going to raise because I don't want any cards come to kill any possible action.

Yes a push will fold out worse and get called by better. But as hero I don't really know whether the kid will call a raise and be pot committed, or whether the kid will call the all in. When in doubt I generally try to get all in as I think the EV is higher. I think the kid folds to any raise any way because when he gets raised he knows he's toast.

So that's my convoluted reasoning. Now you know why I am on the Low Stakes forum and not the high stakes forum.

In this situation I think villain is EV+ making a raise often in this position due to FE against potentially weak tight players.

Now you may say hero is TAG. But playing few hands is always suspicious to me and to me it screams weakness. One exception is the old man who plays one hand every three hours. We all know what that is.

Thank you for your detailed analysis. It was actually amazing to me that so many people have responded to this thread, some with very definitive answers for what the hero should do, and yet you are the first one to talk about explicit ranges as part of the logic supporting your answer.

A few thoughts:

1. Re-read your analysis of his pre-flop range and your analysis of his most likely hands on the flop. Pre-flop, you don't even mention hands like AJo or KJo in villain's flatting range. I agree with that - why would a solid player flat a tight player's EP open with KJo? Only if they were terrible, and we don't have that read. So if villain is semi-competent+ and Hero's image is tight, villain's PF range shouldn't really contain AJo and KJo, so it's hard for those hands to be 'the most likely hands' on the flop IMHO.

2. Here is our equity against a reasonable villain's *value* raising range on the flop:

Board: Jd 7d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.143% 32.14% 00.00% 4455 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 67.857% 67.86% 00.00% 9405 0.00 { JJ, 77, 33, KdQd, Td9d, 9d8d, 6d5d, 5d4d }

3. Here is our equity if we add in some PPs that contain a diamond that decide to semi-bluff:

Board: Jd 7d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.167% 50.17% 00.00% 9933 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 49.833% 49.83% 00.00% 9867 0.00 { JJ, 77, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, 5c5d, 5d5h, 5d5s, 33, KdQd, Td9d, 9d8d, 6d5d, 5d4d }


Obviously if we keep adding PPs with a diamond into his range our equity will improve, but two is a reasonable # for an aggressive player given that he rarely has QQ+ here and JJ, 77 and 33 are sets.

So it comes down to what we believe his semi-bluff frequency to be. When called, we will have ~ 1/3rd equity if we shove. Using the range in #3, we have 30% fold equity. Using range #1 we have 0%. Question is, how do we know his bluffing frequency given our info on the villain so far real-time during the hand to make this decision? Not sure...

I feel we don't have to bet this flop. We have an overpair and a nut flush draw. In abstract, a big hand but we are against a dude that just got himself committed. We lost any dream of folding equity and obviously I think we should not bet at this flop.

AT,

I prefer a c/c on this flop:
- We don't fear a fourth diamond.
- There are no oesd.
- There are no 2pair hands in his range.

So, a free card often usually won't hurt us and may generate action from weaker hands like 88. I just don't see many hands giving us value on this flop and the hands we would get value from like KJ will give it to us later since we won't get three streets from them anyways.

As played, good adjustment you made otr. I think u forced out a bluff or a flopped flush now scared of full house.

I always hate it when people start using poker stove because it makes my gut feel look more like an ulcer than a good decision.

To answer your question it does not really matter what the bluff frequency is. I have to assume that from a good player the frequency will be 'almost always' in some situations. What it comes down to is how often will I see this guy again. Is he a regular that I will be battling for years, or is he one of the many faces in the crowd.

The key point for me is now I am assuming the villain is a good player, not a bad player. My play against a bad player is different than against this villain, who I now classify as good.

And now, here is the reason why I want to raise all in vs. this 'good' player who I assume will be playing me in the future--maybe a lot. If I shove then it's often a semi bluff, and sometimes it's for value. The opposition will twist it into whatever it is in their own minds eye.
1. He has me beat now and then I draw out with a winning flush, or a miracle ace, or whatever. It will make an impression.
2. He has me beat and I don't draw out. Bad for me and it will make an impression on him.
3. He calls and I have him crushed. Maybe not such a good villain after all who over valued top pair. Good to know.
4. He folds. We look at him and say, "I hope you did not fold a Jack?' We hope he will pick another player to play back against in the future and maybe some other people will put us on a massive bluff.

The move seems win-win, even the worst outcome (2). We have created a pressure situation against him to make a decision. And it sets up future hands as well when we play for stacks.

I am always surprised at the calls I get to all in shoves from regulars because they believe I am bluffing more often than I am. In fact they almost always think I'm bluffing and that's why they will stack off vs. me with TPGK. Against other players they fold, and against me they call often.

Against weak players we play ABC and go for value. Against better regulars I think we need to set ourselves up to beat them big, because all the stinking small pots is just swapping spit.

I hope that makes sense.

my 2 cents
The street I like the least is PF. A 20 pf bet really doesn't narrow a good tag to a limited range (at least not in AC games). From MP I would raise to 30 pf. if you take the blinds so be it. At 30 you can start narrowing the villians range. As played he could have any PP, any SC (TJ,JQ included), AJs+ many 1 gappers. possibly AXs if he plans to float your flop c-bet and steal on turn.
Since his opinion of you at this point is weak tight, I think you should put the villian on a pretty broad pf range since he is probably putting you on PP primarily and AQs+.

btw - if v1 is closing the action calling your pf raise, I would absolutly include QQ and KK in his range. You be the nit that would fold to a pf 3! and he be the genious who gets your c-bet and a turn bet (if you hit your hand) w/ KK. He will raise QQ+ more often then calling, but under present conditions, I feel they could be part of V1 range.

OTF - v1 could have sets, small flushes, overpair, pair and a draw, tpgk, middle pocket pair.
If he planned to float you and take it on the turn, his plans would change on a monotone board to raising otf as a 4th diamond may give you the flush. The only thing we know for sure is that he absolutely cannot have the nuts. Since you hold the Ad, I really prefer a check/shove otf. He may fold all his small flushes (which are ahead of you) to the nit who got lucky with AdKd. So I don't necessarily agree with some of the posters who minimized fold equity. The way played, shove the flop c/r.
The way played, you could have gotten real lucky by the board double pairing. Now he would be folding his flush(if that is what he had) to aggression from a nit.
I think the way this hand played out, it was more like a slot machine that hit 777 for you.
Anyway ... would not mind some negative feed back on my position as this how we will all improve.

this really comes down to what range you assign to villain here ( I know duh) ,but I mean if you feel its only sets and made flushes then shoving is pretty bad.

on the other hand if it's even a bit wider than that then shoving is much more attractive.

Reading this thread makes me want to bluff raise any two cards on a three-flush flop against a tight player.

pf: the idea of betting more than 4x I find bizarre tho' I've seen it more and more, imitating 1-2.

on flop: I am not sure the guy is so tight that he can't be semibluff raising with pair+fd or even just KdQx, 9d9x etc. As I said the impression of TAG is just a superficial one (earbuds hoodie unshaven). So I make a borderline call. It's questionable I know, hence my post. It seems you can make a case for doing almost anything here, as it depends on what range you put villain on. I wouldn't rule of QdQx or even KdKx here these days. But assuming he as a lot of semibluffs in his range is shove>call?

on turn: As I said before his approx 1/2 psb smelled weak to me, and I still want us to catch a diamond. I thought that he's never checking behind here.

river: I think the rest of the money is going in, so I might as well get what sliver of fold equity there may be.