Table is 6 handed, no real images or reads to consider $700 effective.

2 limpers to Hero in LB with black Aces, raise to $30 Older man calls in BB one limper calls

Flop ($90) K84sss Hero bets $60 BB calls

Turn ($210) 3d Hero bets $150 villian calls

River ($510) 3c Hero?

Thoughts on all streets and I will post my decision and results tomorrow or something, thanks guys.

Bet 200

bet 350. Get some value. You might take a bet/fold line but Vs range includes a lot of Kx hands that can pay you off. He almost never has a 3 here and if he flopped a flush or set, maybe he played it masterfully but more likely, he would have raised turn. On this wet board, if you check, he might check behind with a K. If you bet and get raised, you're calling for pot odds, but with stack sizing, by leading bigger, its hard for V to think he might have FE against you, so V is going to be less likely to bluff raise. That said, a lot of V might think K is the nuts here. A third barrel from you looks a little bluffy so worse hands can call, but I don't think a lot of worse hands can bet so I don't like checking to trap.

$225/50 sound right.

I probably bet between 275-325. Also, well played on all streets imo.

If he has a K he is calling so I would bet bigger, $350.

PF: What's "LB"? I assume you meant "SB"

Raise is fine.

F: SPR is about 8. We have a strangle hold on this hand: overpair + the nut flush draw. Bet is good.

T: We bet about 2/3 Pot. Bet is good. Villain calls. We've put about 35% of the effective stack in the pot. Villain hasn't raised, so he unlikely has a set or a big King. It looks like weaker King (KJ, KT, K9) which doesn't want to inflate the pot or a baby flush.

R: We have $460 left. Pot is $510. What do we put him on, and based on what we put him on, what size bet will he call? Based on the action, his range looks like a weaker K, weaker K with a flush draw, an 8 with a flush draw. We just counterfeited any two pair hand he may have. Any decent size bet is committing us to the pot. Does Villain call any decent size bet with a weaker K, or any K for that matter? Do we think he has a baby flush and we can push him off it by shoving here? We do have the Ace of spades, so we know he doesn't.

I'm torn between betting $140 hoping for a weaker King to call, or shoving and turning our hand into a bluff hoping he folds the baby flush. I mean if we shove, can he really call with a baby flush?

Edit: After reading the other posts, here's a question. I'm in the minority on how we look at this hand, and or course I may be way off, but here is the question. If this villain has a hand like KT, do you really think he is calling a +/- $300 bet on the river after we raise pre and barrell every street? That would be about 80% of the effective stack with nothing but TP-average-K on a paired and monotone board. Also for those that said bet about $250 to $350 are you folding if the Villain shoves?

The more I think about it, if (and I'm not sure if it's the best play) we are going to bet $300 on the river, in the scheme of things what is $160 (the rest of the effective stack) more. Why not just shove just in case we can make him fold the flush, or maybe call with his K because he thinks we're bluffing.

Grunch.

Hero bet's $180-$225 OTR targeting Kx then pukes/folds if raised.

I don't agree that if he is calling $150 that he is calling $400. I think anything over $250 is too much if you are looking to get called by Kx.

Shove river. V isn't folding a K after putting in $240 and the board bricking out. Also looks like AsX bluff.

I dunno about shoving but bet 1/2 pot at least for sure. Only hands we have to worry about are 88/44 imo cause I think flushes aren't calling both flop/turn. Shoving only if he's stubborn/stationy.

I had a lot of similar thinking

Results-
I figured I'd have heard from a set or even a flush by the river, couldn't bet $250-$300 and fold to a shove and checking is obv bad, I also figured a jam looked more bluffy and could get looked up by Kx, I jammed got snapped off by 44.

people don't like to fold top pair

Yeah, that's true. Which is why I like making a bet that they will almost never fold to rather than jam a near PSB down their throat after betting every street. It's just been my own experience that all but the most fishy players can find a fold with KJ here when facing a river shove.

Why would a set raise a flushed flop/turn?

+1

I think raising the turn with a set is a fairly solid play.

On the flop, you can keep the pot small by calling and possibly get away from it if a 4-flush comes.

On the turn, remember, from the BB's perspective, you are facing a player who showed PF aggression and continued with strong flop and turn bets. Sure you could be up against a flush, but more likely, you are up against Pair+FD. In this case, if I have a set on the turn, I raise, to protect my hand and charge the FD if they want to draw.

I'm not a fan of this whole "raise to protect my hand" mentality. I think all it does is fold most hands you're beating and isolate their range to strong hands. If you narrow it to just flushes and pair + FD even that range has good equity vs you where as if you flat the set their river betting range is much wider.

You've shared this opinion quite frequently on these boards, and while I think it's a concept that has a place in the arsenal, you may be overestimating its usefulness in low stakes games. A few rebuttal thoughts:

(1) In the particular hand we are discussing, a set is ahead of OP's range (IMO) and you will still get action from most hands in the range with a raise. Most LLSNL players have a hard time folding overpairs or pairs+FD, which as I mentioned earlier, I believe make up a majority of OP's range. I expect these hands to call a raise most of the time. This isn't a raise to "find of where I'm at", its a value raise to get paid off by hands that I beat.

(2) In general, I think there is a lot of value in avoiding situations where you may face a difficult decision that may result in you making a mistake. By raising the turn with a set, I believe the rest of the decisions in the hand come much easier.

(3) Finally, remember that you are not playing against yourself! When attempting to read an opponent and placing them on a range of holdings, we need to think about how THEY would play the hand, based on the information available to us from their previous actions. Otherwise you are removing potential hands from V's range because "lol only a fish would play [insert hand] this way, obv. he can't have that".

I bet $350. If he flopped a flush it's a cooler. Hope he has a big K.

Are you folding if he shoves?

Good both pre and on the flop. I'd check the turn and see what V does. We don't care if V checks back because we have the As. It also help pot control a bit with what is just an overpair. I'd plan to check-raise shove if V bets.

As played, if you don't plan to fold to a river shove, you might as well shove yourself.

My thoughts exactly. Shoving looks bluffy and neither v has a flopped flush given there have been zero raises.

I don't think so. If OP has a flush so be it, it's a cooler but in the long run this call will be +EV as OP will not flop flush vast majority of times.

I truly don't believe he has a flush as played.