Reads: Loose pre, capable of raising fairly light. Seems decent post, but a bit on the conservative side. He once rivered the second nuts against me after turn when check/check. I made a 3/4th pot bet on the river and amazingly, he only called. Also, he has slow played at least once.

My image may be bad...I've been at the table for about 45 minutes and only won one pot, in which I bluffed the river 3-way and showed.

Folds to me in the HJ and I raise to $25 with AA. Only villain in the BB calls. $285 effective. I actually plan to NOT commit if I flop an overpair due to villain's conservative post flop tendencies.

Flop: A103. He check/calls $25.

Turn: A1032. He check/calls $40.

River: A10324. He checks, I shove for $220 into $180.

Thoughts on sizing for all streets appreciated, and whether the river v-bet is too thin against this player.

I go 2/3 pot at least OTF for value. It's not folding out FDs anyway, and you want to get AI by the river if he has anything with a < 3/4 pot bet.

Turn is way too small, imo. You bet $40 into $100, less than half pot, when a diamond either kills your hand or your action and leaves you with over a PSB left for the river. There shouldn't really be SDs in his range except 3d4d and 4d5d, but you also have to worry that any 4 or 5 might also kill your action. Again, I go at least 2/3 pot here. That would leave you shoving $190 into $240 OTR, a much more callable bet.

AP, I guess the shove is better than a smaller bet, but the small sizing OTT really screwed you.

Yeah I agree the turn sizing is the most questionable street. I think pre flop and on the flop are standard and fine (although slightly more on the flop is also fine).

I normally size my turn bets higher, but here's why I sized it smaller:

1. If he happens to have a gutshot straight draw, and if I will always pay off to an all-in if he hits on the river, then $40 is large enough to deny him implied odds. In other words, I can bet $40 with the plan of calling an all-in river bet if the K comes in profitably. His expected loss of drawing in this situation is about -$15.

2. He might have a decent or weak Ace, or something like JJ, in which he's drawing dead and a smaller bet is more likely to keep him in.

3. The small chance he has a flush draw, hits his flush while I river a boat is worth something...

4. I plan to NOT commit on the river or pay off if a diamond comes, since if I do, I'm allowing to profitably let him draw on the turn.

What you're forgetting in that analysis is all the value you lose, especially if he doesn't have a FD and will fold to a river diamond. Also, given reads that he actually thinks, you could even be opening yourself up to being CRAI bluffed on a river diamond, though your reads that he's conservative make this less likely.

The small turn bet is either scared money small-ball with top set or silly FPS that at most gets you a few dollars of EV OTT in exchange for losing massive value OTR, imo.

Villain is passive. You said he's loose pre. What do you mean you won't commit with an overpair because he's "conservative?" Does he fold top pair? I doubt it. You're leveling yourself. You need to bet, bet, bet for value on many boards.

As played, sizing is no good.

Flop pot is ~50. Bet 30.

Turn pot is ~100. Bet more.

Way this should have worked is:

Flop (50). Bet 30, call 30.
Turn (110). Bet 65, call 65.
River (240). Shove 190.

Flopping top set is fun, but it isn't necessarily a huge cause for celebration. It's hard for villain to call with worse. I wouldn't slow play here, because he can call with Ax if he amazingly has it, Tx, diamond draws, broadway draws/backdoors, etc. You just gotta target whatever he might have to pay you off with and hope he can go all the way, not worth slowing down.

As to your question about the river being too thin.... what are you saying? Of course it's not too thin. It's not even remotely thin. Bummer if he has something like 6d5d or Ax5x exactly and he runner-runnered a straight.... whatcha gonna do.

Agree with Willy, 30-35 on the flop. 65-75 on the turn, shove river.

Why are we overbet shoving into a conservative Villain with such a strong value hand? Don't we want him to call? I'd much rather take this line with a bluff actually.

Bet $35, $80, $175 instead of the line you took. I understand you don't want to blow him off a hand but you're offering a FD good odds to draw and not getting enough value before the river in case he bricks and folds.

And how would this be too thin of a value bet? How often does Villain ever have the winner? A5 and Xd5d are possible but with an SPR of ~6 I'm going broke here with top set even against a conservative Villain.

Agree with everyone else about betting bigger.

But as played, he doesn't sound like the type to hero call against a shove, so just bet something like half pot.

Results: He calls after I shoved, showing 53o for a straight.

I believe, against his particular hand, my sizing was fine. Here's proof he loses (long-term) by calling turn. Let's assume he'll fold river unless it's a 4 (in reality he'd almost certainly call if the river gives him trips and might call if the river gives him 2-pair, so my situation is even better than this analysis says). Let's also assume he'll get my stack 100% of the time if the river gives him a straight (a true statement, because I actually DID stack off on a 4-straight board).

.08*$360 - .92*$40 = $28.8 - $36.8 = -$8

Conclusion: On the turn with a gunshot straight draw, even if he knows his implied are infinite (i.e. my entire stack), he STILL can't profitably draw on the turn.

My reasoning for betting $40 on the turn was partly because of this knowledge. It was also because he might river 2-pair/trips or a flush while I river a boat (i.e. 3 or 2 river). The chance of this happening combined with his unlikely ability to not get stacked on the river if these happen adds to the EV equation of the turn bet.

It's pretty hard to have top set and have it not be -EV for your opponent to call. If someone's calling a gutterball vs my top set their EV is probably going to be a lot less than -4bb.

As everyone else said, I'd bet flop and turn a lot harder to maximize profit. Since he's played his hand exactly as if he has a draw I'd probably not overshove the river, since he can't call. I'd probably bet like $50 hoping to induce and snap call a shove.

I like the fact that you are trying to make plays with a plan in mind. And you have a decent grasp of his expected value based on your bet sizing, but you seem to be missing the point where, even though you are causing him to make a mistake by calling a $25 bet OTF and $40 OTT, you can force him to make a bigger mistake OTF and OTT by betting more.

You say that he's conservative, which is fine so you didn't want to bet too much on the flop.
But once we get a flop call, his turn calling range gets a lot more sticky and we can profit more and force him to make a bigger mistake by betting $60+. The turn was really just too small. Don't be afraid to force them to make this biggest mistake they can.

If he calls a $25 bet OTF 70% of the time, we profit $17.5. If he calls $40, 45% of the time, we profit $18. (His chance to draw out is constant, and his expected profit actually goes down the more we bet as we have a smaller stack size for him to gain the more that we bet.)
On the turn, we can make similar evaluations. If he calls $40 85% of the time we make $34 profit. If he calls $75 50% of the time, we make $37.5. YMMV, but just keep in mind that betting bigger can force them to play worse, and every time they play worse, we profit in the long run.

Like everyone said, flop bet too light, turn bet too light, and river shove wont get a call most times unless villain has a set or better IMO.

The value was on the flop and turn if villain is chasing. You want to bet light to induce calls with top set ok, I'll buy that, but then the river bet should be consistent then if your line is going to make sense to a villain that's described as conservative.