Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,254
Memorial Friday night, packed room. At the table for ~50 hands, dry, VPIP $ in 5 hands, raising 2 pre, missed flop, folded turn. Image is definitely tight, nitty perhaps passive. Table leaning loose-passive except for 2 good LAGs, one of whom has entered tilt mode.
V1 (BB ~$1000) – Mid-50s-60 Euro white male, neatly dressed, very active but knows when to exit. Not really critical except he donks the flop.
Hero (UTG+1 $460) – White male, mid-50’s, conservative image, drinking water, very quiet except for some light chatting with a very good player/colleague across the table.
V2 (MP1 ~$450) – 40’s white male, just sat down this orbit, played a few hands, l/c or l/f. Has not won a pot or gone to SD. No read on him, nor does he have a read on me, albeit “mid-50s/quiet” usually leans tight passive.
Hero open raises AhAs to $20, UTG+2, MP1, LP, and BB call.
Flop ($96) is Th-5h-5d.
[B]V1 leads for $30. Hero raises to $90, folds to MP1 who 3-bets to $175. Folds to Hero, pot is $391, Hero has $350 behind while MP1 has $255 behind.
Options and my thought process:
Fold – I have the Ah, so KhQh, KhJh may try this, but can 9h8h, 8h7h show-up? I think 6 combos of KK may be in his range. Obviously 5x is the major concern, but what are the viable combos? I think Ac5c, 5c4c, 6c5c, 5s4s, 6s5s are legit possibilities, but not 5Xo. Mistake in my ranging? Do I need to weight trips more?
Call - I have equity vs. the range above, however how do I play a blank turn, C/F? Is their min-raise a probe, will my call slow him down?
4-bet – this would fold hands which is obviously not good, but does charge the FD extra $. He may not fold draws but at least I’d get the $ in as a favorite. 4-betting will not fold hands that I am behind.
Help appreciated on all avenues. Thanks in advance.