Kinda beating myself up over this one. Don't know if it's an overplay or not as played. Still in a 400hr downswing fwiw... OTTH. Villain is 30-something Spanish pro. I've been at table 30 minutes, he doesn't know me, nor as seen anything important. Have seen him iso raising pre, valuebetting 2nd pair Against bad player etc. Def not a nit...

6 handed V(Covers) raises CO $25. Folds to H($700) in BB with AsAd. Hero raises $90. Maybe in hindsight I should go slightly bigger but I'm not deep enough where an extra $10-15 is gonna matter. Don't want him to fold so I'm not 5xing it. V calls

Flop ($185) Jx8x3x. One club, can't remember it it was the J or not. I consider downbetting but oop I think I just want to make it easier to get stacks in. H bets $100. V calls

Turn ($385) 6c. Total brick obviously and so I decide to check to allow his 9Ts, QTs hands, to bet as he might just fold if I bomb turn since I'm not deep enough and would be repping JJ+. Also maybe he has the occasional slow played QQ, KK not sure. No extreme read like that other than he hasn't been a nit preflop. I have intentions of check jamming again with like $125 more than a PSB behind. V looks slightly confused, asked to see my stack, and bets $225. I jam ~$500 total. V calls.


Does this just play itself given my stack size post flop or did I butcher somehow? I know it can just go b/b/b but he will fold all smaller pairs etc.

Thanks.

I think it looks fine. Really like the turncheck to allow the weaker portion of villains range to do a bet themself, and put you on a hand like 1010 or AK that C-bet the flop to give up on the turn.

BTW the confused look+ asking to see your stack is a pretty reliable livetell regarding a nutted hand. I am not folding here based on this tell alone, but ive definetely seen it verified so many times from several villains that it could weigh me towards a fold if the decision was closer.

Also i am on a 500 hour breakeven stretch myself, and counting. Brutal stuff man, but just keep going. It will turn around eventually if you manage to keep your head above the water and not go crazy mentally.

Thanks, yeah I couldn't have put much stock into that facial expression it wasn't much, he just kinda crunched his eyebrows lol. MBN to be @ breakeven, it might be another couple hundred hours before I even get there (-7.5 bi)... Any other replies before I give results?

Taylor Swift is overrated. Strawberry Laffy Taffy is the worst Laffy Taffy. I really couldn't care less about the latest drama in the English royal family. And come-over guys, you're not fooling anyone.

OK. Ready now.

Thanks for your input.

Really could be AJ. I don't have an issue with your line. I'm in a break even stretch of 2 months. Frustrating as **ck.

This does pretty much play itself. Preflop you could optimize your sizing slightly better with a stronger read on what villain calls but your size is not out of line. With SPR < 4 on flop and a reasonable board your not folding AA unless the run out is somehow terrible. There are other ways you could have played this but they all end up with your stack in the middle.

So I jam after V bets $225 ott, V calls, river 9x , V shows 33.

The hand plays itself but when I'm in a downswing I really try to play as fundamentally sound as I possibly can. It won't matter for the results of this hand but going smaller with aces pre then going larger otf is just bad poker. Play hands the standard way until you get your confidence back. Doing weird stuff isn't how you get out of a downswing.

Like I said it doesn't matter in this hand but if you're doing it here then you're doing it in other hands and that will most likely prolong the downswing.

Study more and move down stakes. It makes no difference long term if you play a couple weeks of 1/3. You need to get your confidence back. You shouldn't have 400 hr downswings at live 2/5nl. I'm sure you are running bad but it's too large of a sample to only be variance

I didn't bet smaller otf... however maybe I should just stop considering downbetting much at all while I am still stuck. A large portion I believe of my swing is the fact that almost every other session the first 200 hours I had to leave within 2-3 hours due to me not being in good games (for myself) and being unable to transfer to specific tables due to mine being short at the time, happening to be stuck a couple hundred and. Or being able to play normal session length to be unstuck. Also, 1/3 isn't available for me. It's 1/2 $300 cap with $7 rake so that's not an option. Stacks aren't big enough generally. Im pretty sure that I've had my stack in the middle only maybe 6-7 times during this stretch. Not really by choice but just constantly winning and losing the minimum with my big hands, and just getting bad run-outs/flop texture with most of my value hands and being oop multiway often enough

Except in the softest games, AA is a significant underdog if stacks go in on the turn or river for over 100 BB unimproved. AA is great at winning lots of smallish pots. It loses a lot of big pots.

And by soft, I mean games where the villains would significantly improve their game if they read Harrington on Hold 'Em from 2006.

My first thought is to see if the hand plays out any different if you took a different line on the turn , I actually like your turn play and is a play I like to use sparingly from time to time , if you were to lead the turn for a standard bet and he raises you , are we ever getting away from the hand ? Based on the runout likely not , even if it goes b/b/b stacks go in, I'm not sure what a solver would say , another thought is what does your range look like to him when you jam the turn ? Food for thought bro , thanks for posting

Thanks. I was unknown to him so not sure if he thinks I have anything other than a set when I c/r turn, his grimace and sigh made it seem like he thought I only had JJ. On turn I'm only slightly more than 1spr so lol yeah obv never folding, but I do think he folds all his Jx if I do bet turn.

While this is generally true, it seems you're implying H should have gotten away from this hand at some point.

Having checked with the plan of crai, what do you propose we do differently? C/r was targeting the majority of his range that wants to bet for value/protection and his bluffs.

Being -200bb oop in a 3bet pot with specifically AA means you are going to be paying their big hands off on good runouts. People still overplay one pair here.