Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
Fair enough. Sorry for my unwarranted adamance about A2. The important thing to be stealing fairly wide here. In live games, almost no one is going to take the correct countermeasures of light 3!, playing aggressively postflop, etc.
I don't think the GTO solution on specific hands matters all that much to low-stakes live play except as a baseline. I'm surprised GTO doesn't have us stealing with A2 but in practice it doesn't matter much. We can probably open both A2o and 63s profitably in most games.
I doubt the solvers are accounting for the times the action goes: check-cbet-call; check-check; check-check; our hand is good. That is to say, it's much easier to realize your equity postflop than it "should" be. Hence your screenshot suggests A2o is unprofitable against perfect competition, but that doesn't say much about its profitability against passive opponents in small-stakes NLHE.
GTO isn't useless here, but it's just a theoretical starting point.
Your post is well-argued but I don't get your point here. Getting the hand over with isn't much of a virtue when it means giving up our most profitable hand positionally of this orbit.
I agree that GTO isn't that important except as a baseline; however, GTO sims are run with 5% rake; having 10% rake in live games is massive, especially since other people tend to massively overcall. If I raise to $25 on the button, get called by the BB, who then check/folds to a $15 flop bet, I've put $40 at risk, and I'll win $52-25-8 (my open, rake, BBJP, tip), for a profit on the hand of $19. Online, even at 5% up to $20, I'd wine $52-25-2.60, for a profit of $24.60.
We have less fold equity preflop live, and we pay a much higher % of the pot in rake when we take it down on the flop, so raising pre a bunch to cbet and take it down is a much less profitable strategy.
Re: getting the hand over, if we win 10bb/hour, that works out to an avg EV of 0.3bb/hand, assuming 30 hands per hour roughly. So if our fold gets us to the next hand immediately, and our playing the hand means we play one less hand an hour, we need the EV to be more then 0 - closer to 0.15bb or more (cutting it in half cause we still have to wait for the dealer to do things, so it doesn't count as a full hand). Yes, having the button is a highly +ev situation, but the high rake and poor hand equity of A2o, IMO, makes it not worth going to a flop and feeding the rake / reducing the hands per hour.
It's a very minor point, and I'm happy to be wrong about it, but I think it makes sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vicpwnsypp06
I agree. There's no way that is the case. Otherwise, you would see larger sizes at high stakes online cash games. It's just not true. By using larger sizings, you let your opponents play tighter leading your range advantage to be decreased postflop, lowering your EV. Interestingly though, I feel people are even more passive vs. large opens despite the fact that they should have a higher 3b frequency. So when playing live despite opening larger you can still open wide considering that fact.
So for starters, you do tend to see smaller UTG open sizes and larger OTB sizes at high stakes, and the Zenith GTO preflop ranges confirm that - it's only opening 2.5bb with 1.1% of it's range UTG, but going 2.5bb or larger with 42% of it's button range (and these are magnified as % when you look at just what % of our raising range we're using different sizes with).
OTB, when we go 2bb, the BB gets to continue ~60% of the time. When we go 3.5bb, they only continue 30% of the time. So yes their range gets a whole lot stronger! But we also win 1.5bb preflop much more often, which has a much higher value then having a higher equity edge postflop in a 4.5bb pot.
Agreed we can open much wider than GTO pre live, given the lack of proper 3betting, though I do think we overestimate how much we can, given how high the rake is. But if you're in a time game, go wild!