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2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2 2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2

07-11-2019 , 03:20 PM
Quick line check. MP1 opens to 20, I 3b to 70 in MP2 with KQdd, 1200 behind. Villain in MP3 cold calls pretty quickly, everyone else folds.

Villain starts hand with 700. Definitely a recreational player but sat down 5 hands ago so no solid reads. I get the sense that he's not calling 3b light though; isn't a splashy player. I'm ranging him on TT-QQ, maybe 99, KK-AA (expect a 4b for KK-AA), AQ+, AJs+, and maybe some lower SCs, but probably only a few.

Flop: Ks, Jh, 5s. Pot: 160.

Hero checks, Villain checks.

Turn: Qc.

Hero bets 125, Villain raises 325, Hero shoves. Standard?
2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2 Quote
07-11-2019 , 04:37 PM
Pretty standard imo.
Sure feels like V has pocket JJ here a lot, but I don’t see how we can get away.
I would probably play it similar.
I might flat pre the odd time.
2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2 Quote
07-11-2019 , 04:45 PM
I think it's fine.
2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2 Quote
07-11-2019 , 05:09 PM
Good post, thank you for giving a range for villain.

I'm having a hard time figuring out what they raise here that you beat. If we give them QQ,JJ,Tx9x,(AK-JT,AQ,AJ):ss you're crushed 3-1. If we give them all combos of AK it gets slightly better, you're at 50% equity, but I don't expect AK to raise this turn often. Removing AK again, if we assume villain flats all AA and KK and raises AA on the turn you're at 40%, and that's an optimistic scenario.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
528 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ5Q
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KdQd28.03% 1480
QQ,JJ,Tx9x,(AK-JT,AQ,AJ):ss71.97% 3800

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
880 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ5Q
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KdQd50.45% 4440
QQ,JJ,Tx9x,(AK-JT,AQ,AJ):ss,AK49.55% 4360

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
836 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ5Q
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KdQd40.67% 3400
QQ,JJ,Tx9x,(AK-JT,AQ,AJ):ss,AA,KK59.33% 4960

Tough spot, but what do we beat? There are hardly any flush draws in their range.
2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2 Quote
07-12-2019 , 03:39 AM
Seems solid play to me. Seems like he may have had QJ, AQ, AQs or squadush @normanchad
2/5, 3b flop, turn top 2 Quote

      
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