It would be pretty hilarious if the donk called with KJ and spiked one...

+1 million

Those of you who don't want to ship here because a Q will fold: you're shipping any two, then, is that right?

Shoving is a continuation bet. Just how (and HA HA HA to your great joke) is a 2/3rds pot bet going to keep you from losing the hand if the board pairs which it is going to do 45.8% of the time. Or are you calling a shove after the board pairs?

Shoving $583 into a $17 pot is a cbet? Ok, good to know what you consider as a cbet.

Who said a 2/3 bet was appropriate? There is a great deal of space between $12 and $583.

Many suggested in the $40 range, which is definitely a number random Q's would call.

(And it wasn't a joke, it was an outcome that would make this an amusing anecdote)


Wtf?!? Where are you getting the board will pair 45.8% on the river?
We know 6 cards out of 52
12 cards can pair the board
12/46 = 26.1%

If he raised pre, cbet flop, ship turn - as my '+1 million' referred - then there is no paired board to worry about.

I am intrigued by those who are saying to raise pre-flop... I am okay with the limp we have a good player who limped in early position, A pre-flop raise could be all he needs to come over the top and then you have to lay it down because this isn't that great of a hand... If it was the crappy player who limped then it's a different story

Isolate limper preflop. Raise pre.

As played I lol'ed and love your idea but it is not the most plus ev...

I like your shove a lot OP with V1 in the pot. Even with V2. Good thinking and creative.

I also like Jay's analysis, though I didn't check the math or anything.

Also, some people seem really concerned that V2 will fold Qx...

Um, good?

Qx still has 40% equity in the pot. We are a 4:1 dog to bink a flush. Those few times that we do bink a flush, we probably don't get paid off much by V2 on diamond rivers.

Yes, the turn pot is only $17, but getting him to fold a chop isn't a bad thing.

And making him choose between folding a possible chop vs. the risk of getting free rolled is going to be most +EV over time imo.

I mean do the math - what is the value of a) getting him to fold the turn chop vs. b) getting him to call a $20 bet - with correct odds as long as he doesn't pay us off on diamond rivers because he actually has ~40% equity on the turn?

Pretty sure getting him to fold the chop is better for us.

I think the most +EV lines and outcomes are, in order:

1. We shove, someone calls with Qx. Free roll.
2. We shove, someone folds Qx. Folds a chop.
3. We bet $20, and someone calls. Our EV of that $20 is a fraction of the bet.

Maybe there's some middling case where we over bet the pot but not as a shove.

I mean, again, do the math. At what bet size should Qx be indifferent to whether it calls a likely free roll with $17 in the pot? We can calculate that, and then bet that amount.

Ha, funny. And true. Q's call a lot here.