V is a bad reg, probably a break even or slightly winning player.

We had some history.


HH1 (this was probably a month ago not sure if he remembers):

200 BB eff.

V opens to 20 from CO, BTN calls, hero 3bets to 100 from BB with KK without Ks.

Flop T25ssc
Hero bets 2/3 pot, he calls
Turn 6c
Hero bets 2/3 pot, he jams..

Hero tank calls, he showed TJo. I was not sure if he was turning his hand into bluff or he thought his hand was good. KK holds.

HH2 (20 mins ago)

V opens 20 from LJ. Only hero calls OTB with QhTs

Flop T52ccs

V bets 30, hero calls.

Turn 5h
V bets 75, hero calls.

River Td
V checks, hero bets 200, V snaps with AhAs


This hand:

V opens 20 from LJ, HJ calls, CO calls, hero calls OTB with KQdd


Flop AdTdJs pot 85
checks to hero, hero bets 45, V calls, CO folds

Turn 8c pot 175
V checks, hero bets 140, V calls

River Jh 455

V bets 350, hero?

Hard to construct a check/call 2 street range for villain here. It's really heavily weighted towards hands like KJ QJ KT QT. I find it really hard to believe he has many boats in his range at all. J8s. AA if he's bad, I'm shipping it all in here expecting to pretty much never be behind.

Based on HH & V overvaluing TP, I think this is a call. Might be enough Ax and Jx hands that we still beat. Even if we range him on FH+trips, we're dead even. AJ might actually be discounted as that's not checking 2 streets very often, in which case, we're way ahead.

It is not a question about folding but if he should raise...

First of all i definitely like a bigger bet on the flop. As played i probably just call. We block his potential trips quite hard... but it is close imo.

raise/fold to 795

I should really read things I respond to. I might go bigger OTF as well & agree that stacking might not be optimal. We know he'll bet when he overvalues, but would he call off 189bb w/ just trips or less often enough? We need to be good 43% of the time just to break even.

What? We'd have $500 left.

Nut worst option.

I would just flat. I don't think the non-boat portion of his range will call a shove enough for it to be profitable. You said he was either breakeven or slightly winning. That doesn't sound like a mouth breather to me.

He overplayed/merged TP in HH1, but he did that as the aggressor ott. In HH2, he check-calls the riv, doesn't bet/call. Big distinction. I would just call and hope he's on the weaker portion of his range rather than risk value-owning ourselves in what seems a thin spot to raise. Lol if he has Q9/97.

What credible boats are in this dude's range that he doesn't bet the flop with? No, he won't call us very often. But this is important to set up metagame for next time. We have to go for the valueshove here and hope he's like "But I'm underrepped bro!!!" And calls with some nonsense putting you on a busted flush draw. What boat can he have?

I like this, V will call with Jx/worse straights, and jam any boats though he has like none. I would also bet more OTF like 60.

That's wrong. To make raising better than calling we need to have more than 50% against his calling range.

Tough to say if we have it against this villain but it is definitely too optimistic as a standard.

I think there is merit in value shoving, but personally I prefer flatting. I know there aren't many boat combos that make sense, but the times we get called by worse won't make up for the times we are called by better. I'm not saying it isn't close, but he's taking a strong line here, and it's hard to imagine he's bet-calling with trips all that often. If he has a worse straight, then yes, we are missing value.

Worse straights? How can he ever have that... i don't think he will ever fold trips, but he hast just as many boats... Aa JT and even AJ could very well be played like that.

In game I'd likely flat becaause I'd be (nittily) thinking how I have enough boats in this spot to raise his trash value heavy line/even clown regs don't put 350 in the middle lightly

However, when you breakdown his range, there are just SO many worse Jx combos available that just...SO frequently get to the riv this way that... VERY frequently can lead riv...that making raising a very good play. I have no doubt he open QJo+/J8s+ much of which ck-c flop. JT likely bets flop, as does AA and TT, but if you really want to work conspiracy theories and make decisions based on low frequency events, then you also need to account for his slow played Q9s/KQs/KQo against which a riv raise is obviously +EV.

I'm just folding river

Have to call since we expect him to cbet otf most of his sets/two pairs that filled up OTR.

Just call it off. You're only losing value against weaker straights, and maybe not even those. Your line could easily look like a two pair that boated up, so what calls a river raise that you still beat?

If he has exactly Q9, turned it, and would now call a shove, then you've missed value, but otherwise there's not much point in shoving. If I shove and get called, I'm never feeling good about it.

to those who advocate call:

What boats does V have with c/c, c/cm donk line?

If he has mostly trips and air in his range, and he is not calling a shove, then can we just profitably jam many hands into bluff? For example, 78dd?

Well played. Only minor criticism is the flop bet size should be more.

I raise for value. Villain should have bet all boat combos on the flop. All two pair hands bet the flop as do almost all sets. I suppose we shouldn't eliminate all boats because some villains freeze when their AA hits a set.

KJ/QJ makes a ton of sense and should make up the bulk of villain's range. Villain might be a tilted after getting his aces cracked on the river only 20 min ago. I raise to $800-900 and don't think I'm folding if he shoves.

Against a nittier villain, you should call or even fold. I think you get looked up by Jx often enough to make raising profitable despite the few times he has a boat.

I highly doubt he is bluffing here all that often. But in case he is raising and calling are the same. I think he can have a bunch of fullhouses. If you assume his range is capped to trips it is an obvious jam.

Nevertheless I think it should either be a call or a jam, given description villain will pretty much never fold trips so I can't see any merit in a small raise.

My problem is this:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.67% 46.67% 0.00% KdQd
MP3 53.33% 53.33% 0.00% AA, AJs, KJs, QJs, J8s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo

That might be to pessimistic, but i didn't include TT and JJ. which might be in, if I also exclude AJ we have about 57%, so a jam is definitely thin.

All flopped sets and two pairs combos should be discounted by his line. People are scared of flush draw and straight draw and don't slow play those hands on this type of board very often.

He might have all combos of J8s though

I agree with you, but I am not sure if we should include all trips aswell... I see people betting these on the Flop all the time. I think it's really hard to figure out the exact range as his line is so non standard. All hands probably should be discounted to some degree.

I really think it comes down to knowing the opponent a little better but untill then personally I would stay away from very thin river plays that could potentially be really bad.

+1

This is somewhere between a trivial/shrug/sigh call.

Yeah .. He never shoves with worse but will call with worse for sure (see history). His line isn`t repping a FH at all but QJ,KJ and some other hands that will call a raise on the river.

Calling here is ok, but it`s worse than raise/folding.