[LOW] 2/5 200BBs attacking limpers and flopping TP
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,210
Eff. stacks = 1000
Hero is BB with AJss. UTG straddles, 5 players call, including Villain in SB. Hero raises to 100. All fold to V, who calls.
Flop: Jh6s5d. Pot = 260. V checks, Hero bets 75, V calls.
Turn: Th. Pot = 410. V checks, Hero bets 175, V raises 475. Hero?
JTs is obvious, but it isn't clear what else he beats me with here. He certainly puts in a raise with JJ in position, and it's hard to see someone l/c OOP with 55, 66. TT is similarly unlikely - would expect him to put in a PF raise 90% of the time.
Relevant history: Last week I played a hand with V that is similar and relevant.
V is older guy who does not seem especially aggressive or a creative player, but may be sticky PF. In past week, a player bet 20, another called, and V overcalled on CO; I squeezed to 125 in BB. All folded to V, who called with QTcc. He then called my flop bet, turned a flush, and called down my triple barrel on a paired board with a river K. I didn't show.
Note that while he was in position in our last hand, his range now still likely includes S/Cs.
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 12,772
Given description, it's hard to imagine that you are good here. However, this is the main reason I hate small bets -- we now have to decide if they are playing back at our small bets or if they have us crushed.
Edit: Granted, turn bet isn't that small, which makes the check/raise a bit scarier. I really don't like committing here w/ one pair and basically no redraws. Calling seems so weak. If he will check all missed rivers, I guess it's OK, but I don't like it.
Last edited by Javanewt; 10-20-2021 at 06:29 PM.
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,251
Given the opponent descript, specifically "does not seem especially aggressive or a creative player", I'd let it go. He has 3 of the sets and all of the 2pr scs.
Flop - I'd go a bit larger.
Turn - I'd mix in a check at some frequency.
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,518
After his flop call, I'm trying to get to a cheap river here on this turn. Check turn.
AP: probably this is a "solver call" from the midpoint of our range. I cannot find it though so I prefer a Baluga Theorem "population fold" here.
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 3,341
It’s a call in solverland (probably the best one-pair hand to call with too, given our blockers), but a fold in the real world.