2/5: QQ folds face up to my AA on a 7 high flop, wtf?

V is some random Indian guy sitting with $1500+ at this 2/5 $1k cap game. Playing many hands pre coming in for a raise mostly but seems like an aware/aggressive player who doesn’t like to give away too much money postflop.

Hero sat down at the table an hour or two ago with $600 and has chipped up to around $1500. Showed down AA twice in medium sized pots back to back. Tight image.

Hand: BTN straddle $10, V opens $40 first to act, Hero (two to his left) makes it $130 with red AA, folds back to him, asks to look at my stack and then calls. I insta-put him on 88-JJ type hands.

Flop ($275): 7c4c3s

V checks, Hero bets $225, V snap folds QQ face up.

I’m flabbergasted.

Solvers advocate a large sizing on these flops if I’m right? Also, an overpair should always be calling atleast one bet postflop here.

Did I bet too big or the guy was just a nit?

At a 2/5 game in Texas, all the money would’ve gone in preflop.

For anyone who says we have a tight image because we only showed down AA in the past hour, that’s just a lucky run of cards that went to showdown vs shorties. A ton of the times, we open way wider, cbet/barrel and get folds without having to show down our hands. Creating a crazy/bluffy image to get more value in these spots ends up into more of a spew fest when there’s four other 60-80 VPIP players at the table. And even then, it’s never guaranteed that a nit stacks off with QQ in these spots. It’s like, they’re just afraid to lose when they’ve built up a deepstack. The same guy would probably snap checkshove a $500 stack in this spot, pre or post. As far as flop sizing, down betting probably definitely superior. Although the guy is folding to a turn barrel anyway unless we make another tiny bet, so safe to assume we can never make much money vs these guys here regardless.

What’s the best way to extract max value vs this player? Bet $100/100/100 on all 3 streets? Bet $100/check/250? Check/$100/250? Asking this because the standard bet small flop/bet big turn line won’t work against this guy because he will just get cold feet on turn and fold anyway.

Both imo. You can get the chips in just fine by river betting 1/3rd the pot on flop, and there's a lot of hands with very little equity against you that'll often fold to $225 while calling $90.

Also possible he just thinks you're a super nit.

But against such a player who’s so afraid to lose his $1500 stack to AA/KK, he may call 1/3p on flop but fold anyway when I bet again on turn right? How do we ever extract more from this type after the turn peels? Bet $90 again lol?

I don't know what solvers recommend. The thing to remember about solvers (and GTO play for that matter) is that they are making assumptions about opponents play that may not apply. Solvers are probably assuming and/or working out that opponents will be sticky in pots that are 3 bet+ preflop because c-betting pot close to 100% is fairly common. If that doesn't apply to this opponent then the solver solution may not be optimal against this opponent

Have you had to show any bluffs? Have you made any big bets post flop that you showed with something other then a big pair? Having a lucky run of big hands might force you to slow down your play a bit to keep other people in the hand.

At the kind of stack depth you are at that would be bad play itself.

If he is really the sort who is aggressive themselves but folds too much when other people are aggressive look for chances to bluff. Isolate him preflop and c-bet more with bigger sizing. When you do have value you will have to work out from experience what size he will call. Probably something closer to a bit over half the pot on flop and turn and evaluate what is bet on the river.
Against some villains checking dry flops and letting them take the lead on turn and river can be good. It depends on how much they will bluff if you had the lead preflop. If they will bet two streets with air then this is good, if they take one stab and give up it's bad.

Think about your range, not your hand. If he is folding QQ to one bet then your AA are not making as much money as they should, but all your bluffs are printing and are super +EV. If you are a super nit then yes he is making a good exploit against you, but if you are playing a sound strategy that is balanced with both value bets and bluffs your range is printing here and you should be happy he is folding QQ to one bet.

In terms of bet size, no betting humongous on super low boards in 3 bet pots is not solver approved, typically if boards misses both people then using a small size and betting very frequently is very standard.

Bruh, you got aces 3 times in 1 session, and you 3-bet a 4x UTG open. Then you 80% pot a dry low flop with an obvious intent of getting stacks in by the river.

This guy isn't thinking anything complicated, he's thinking "goddamnit, that luckboat has it again" and your range with that 3-bet is AKs/QQ+. On the flop, it's AcKc and QQ+.

He doesn't even have to be that tight. Idk, maybe this line prints money in Texas against drooling monkeys, but coast casinos, you have to give even rec players more credit. I mean this is a 150bb hand, and rec players won't think about it in terms of straddles, so it's a 300bb hand to them. How often do people shovel 300bb into the pot with a 1 pair hand?

If he’s gonna play this way then your bluffs are printing. Show him the KsJs next time to needle him for folding the top of his range.

Are you sure? I’d need to check but I think this is a prime example of a board where we get to use two CBET sizings in our strategy (either 2/3 - 3/4 PSB or 1/3 PSB). We get to range bet AND split sizings between 3/4 and 1/3.

what suits were the queens?

3-betting the UTG raiser from MP limits your range to some pretty strong holdings (AKs/QQ+ as people have mentioned) with a sprinkle of Axs/Kxs bluffs right?

To me, 80% pot as a c-bet polarizes this to over-pairs, a semi bluff with a nut-flush draw and maybe air. Sounds like you had a tight image and V didn't put air in the range. Makes sense if he preferred not to get it in against another deep stack with a draw or AA/KK/two overs.

If you never 3 bet before and he thinks your a nit he may have played it well.

Hope you didnt show and just said thanks for the fold/show.

Dont start overbluffing him, they can't lay down twice like that though...unless you showed.

See, the problem is I bet OP doesn't bet 225 in 275 with KJs on 7 high board.

I mean Hero is a fish 3 betting JJ+/AK and surprised when people make big folds vs. a range with no bluffs, he also thinks in terms of his specific hand and not his range when picking a bet size, I don't think this is the type of player I'm advocating 2 bet sizes to

On virtually any board if you put two options for a large size/small size the solver will use both of them, that will make the strategy super hard for a human to play even just on flop yet alone turn and river

Would highly suggest using one size and highly suggest the small one regardless of what a solver spits out, I personally don't try to use more than one size outside river in general, just super hard to play

yep

Yeah, I think I had misunderstood the concept. Thanks for the explanation.

One issue also is the large cbet sets up an awkward SPR on turn. We end up having to downbet either turn or river after we use 80% cbet, which is strange.

Agreed on SPR, for hands that want to triple, I think natural to go something like $100, $350, $900 which is like 35%, 75%, 75% to get money in on river

And appreciate it, I think common mistake people make is trying to use 2-bet sizes on flops when it almost never makes sense (unless you're like a top 100 in the world crusher type which I'm not). I ran this spot using ranges that should be used here (I know in reality they aren't). If you have two sizes, you will bet $225 26% of the time, $100 36% of the time, and check 38% of the time. EV of IP is $146. If you only use the $100 size you will bet 69% of the time and EV remains $146. So same EV in theory and much easier to play in reality.

dots or feathers?

Solvers choose sizing based on SPR, equity and nut advantages, and position. On this flop, OOP doesn't really have any advantage over you presuming he's not opening low PP and SC first to act with a BTN straddle, then calling a 3b... which seems like he isn't. When it's hard to get called, it's usually better to stay away from larger sizings. The SPR's 5 so there's some post flop playability, but given how few draws OOP has, there's not much to chase with.

I ran some sims, thinking it probably likes smaller sizing. I set OOP to always check and gave IP the option to c-bet 30%pot, 50%pot, 80% pot, or 120% pot. It never checks, chooses the small sizing a bit more than 1/5 times, and uses the half-pot c bet all the other times. The larger sizings get ignored. My half-assed analysis thinks it likes going 1/2 pot as it allows us to get value and also bluff our overcards. OOP's optimal response to the 1/2pot c bet is to fold out most 88, especially those without a club, all 99, all TT without club. His JJ should flat, and his QQ actually x/r a it more often than flatting. So my thinking is it chooses 50% over 30% because more of the mid PP fold when we c-bet our A highs, and suited broadways. (Though he should optimally overfold on this flop. To a 50% c bet, half his range folds. To the smaller sizing, 40% of his range folds... at least the ranges I set.)




Anyways, that's just pure theory. I don't have the time to mess around with different pf ranges and post flop nodelocks now, but I think the only hand we have a shot of getting three streets from is QQ. So I guess bet small-mid OTF, mid sized again OTT, and get to the river with a PSB left. Maybe bet teeny there to force a defend. I dunno, maybe shove if we think it'll look bluffy. Honestly though, it's hard to get stacks with this SPR from worse pairs unless he's got some weird KK flats pre or turns a K after floating AK or KXcc or something.

Thanks that’s awesome. Yeah 1/2p, 1/2 and tiny on river seems best.