Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01
Two questions:
1. How can you begin to estimate the equity gap needed to surmount the disadvantage due to being OOP in postflop play? This is obviously a function of our and our opponent's skill levels. I had always assumed that a 10% point gap would be enough, assuming equal skill level. That's why I will sometimes 3B KJs against a loose BTN open (KJs is 57% against the range you posted). Maybe this is a mistake?
2. It is really hard to find hands which have more than 65% equity against the Villain range you posted. Basically just 88+ and AQs+. AKo has ~64.5% equity. If what you're saying is correct, you suggest it may be correct to only 3B a range of 3% of hands {TT+,AKs,AQs} against a 60% opening range. This seems excessively tight. Or am I oversimplifying your argument?
My strategy is vs this player specifically. Everything you have said is true vs an unknown and especially a reg.
1) Your “skill” against opponents when you have limited fold equity is not going to come from bluffs. It is going to come from your preflop hand selection and your ability to value bet thinly.
2) KJs would be a better 3bet than AQo here even though it has less equity against his range. Why is this? Because suited hands have more visibility postflop and over realize equity while off suit hands under realize.
We have an 11% chance of flopping a Flush Draw with KJs and by that metric alone we would be able to play it profitably postflop.
My strategy vs this opponent would be to flat in the SB with all of our strong off suit hands/low suited connectors/pairs under T and to 3bet all of our premiums + broadway suited connectors. Since we have almost no fold equity we need to 3bet hands that flop well + can flop top pair more often.
This is why 3betting a hand like 87s would most likely be a mistake vs this opponent. We will flop 2nd and 3rd pair too often in a big pot and be unable to continue vs aggression.