Effective stacks are 1000. The not as important villains in this hand all have relatively short stacks (between 200-400). Primary villain in this hand is probably the weakest player at the table. He's a 40 or 50 something year old white guy who is defiitely an amateur. He's extremely loose and passive preflop, and completely overly aggressive postflop, where he'll donk out from any position if he hits any of the board. I've been trying to actively isolate him all night with varying degrees of success. My image is LAGgy

Preflop, villain limps MP, I iso from CO with Q10 to 50, SB calls, straddle calls, villain calls

Pot is 200

Flop is 1098

Checked to villain who donks for 150, we call, the rest fold
Pot is 500

Turn is 2

Villain bets 300, we call
Pot is 1100

River is 4

Villain checks

I would jam and expect to get looked up by this villain at least 70% of the time he has a pair, and I'd expect to be be good almost always.

The bottom of my jamming range here. Not jamming isn't horrible. Smaller bets (~300) are also fine to get calls from a-highs and every pair possible.

Flop actually seems close to a fold due to the other players yet to act, but I can't fault calling with your reads. I just think it's harder to win 150 here than it seems.

As played, the turn is so good for you that I'd just rip it in right now with only 500 left. Your hand has pretty poor visibility for the river and you'll often be forced to call vs his draws that get there. The only merit I see to calling is that you save 500 vs his AT/KT/98/88 type stuff when the river is a non-blank, as the river will probably go check/check.

On the river it's really more up to your reads whether this is a shove. I still think you're likely to run up against AT/KT quite a bit, so I don't share BirdsallSa's optimism. You just know way more about what this guy is capable of calling with. And as I said, shove turn seems optimal anyway.

I don't have anything to plug ranges into except my phone on me now, but I do not think we are doing as well vs his turn betting range as we might think.

Not saying it's a fold, he would just have to betting pretty wide for bluffs/draws considering he probably has all combos of straights, all combos 2 pairs (on the flop), all KT/AT, and maybe 6 combos of sets and maybe 1-2 combos of JJ.

I agree flop should maybe be a fold 4way, but I probably call in game given V description and we have position on a board that is very likely to change in texture, with a pretty good hand.

I check river as played.

I think the stack sizes of the other villains is the reason I ended up not folding the flop. If I got jammed on by one of them and had to call it off, I definitely would've had some reasonable equity with my hand.

I think a turn push is a reasonable option. He calls with every hand that beats me (including K10 and A10), all pair plus straight draw combos (which I'm ahead of), all flush draws, and maybe even some garbage like AJ or A6. Actually, as I'm writing this, I realize I can't think of a single hand that he donks flop, bets turn and folds to a raise. So I would have almost zero fold equity, so the real question is, am I ahead of his range on the turn? I think the answer is probably yes, but I'm not a range wizard like some of you guys.

Flop turn are find just check riv I think

It isn't necessary to have >50% equity for shove > call. Even with ~45% you probably realize more equity by shoving than calling.

When I get home and have some time I'll plug in what I think is a reasonable range for V and see what equity we have.

Interesting concept you bring up regarding realizing more equity by shoving turn; I've never thought about it that way.

yea but why is realizing your equity a thing here? pretty sure its not

I rip it in on the turn and expect to get called by Jx plenty, plus lots of pairs. Definitely not folding flop with a gutshot +TP, I think raising is a possibility to get the shortstacks to fold equity/stacks vs them are short enough we can't fold to a raise from one of them, plus villain I assume bets/calls wide, and isn't bet/folding 57s here.

This is a very interesting concept to me. I think I understand rentons logic but I don't know if it's sound. I haven't done this much in depth analysis into the theory. I'm glad this forum is still challenging me with new concepts and ideas.

If I had to guess, realizing your equity is a thing mostly because there a lot of rivers you get bluffed off of (not realize your hot/cold equity). Is this correct renton?

Realizing equity just means winning a high % of the pot relative to your hand's pot equity. Let's say hypothetically there were two extremes on the turn with 45% equity hands:

1) You have 45% equity and that equity is distributed to rivers that give you either 100% or 0% equity vs his range.

2) You have 45% equity and that equity is evenly distributed such that all rivers give you exactly 45% equity vs his range.

In this situation, 1) would realize a larger percentage of equity by calling turn. It would actually win way more than 45% of the pot so thats >100% equity realized. Meanwhile, 2) would realize a larger percentage of equity by shoving turn.

OP's hand is closer to 2) than to 1).

Yes, but also because of incorrectly calling river bets when your hand is no good. Basically, your hand figures to be at a disadvantage in future betting in the hand, so if you're >43% or so vs his total range on the turn you should just shove. You put the remaining 500 in at a slight disadvantage, but it's a smaller disadvantage than you'll be forced to put it in on a number of non-blank rivers if you call. This is what it means to realize more equity.

If you're calling it off vs a shove from one of the other short stacks and you think you're ahead of this aggrotard's donking range I don't see why you don't raise the flop. You can definitely get called by worse from the aggrotard and you protect your equity. A lot of the biggest winners I know will just rip it in spots like these vs fish on wet boards.

Ok thanks, I understand.

Is there not any merit in that this is live poker and our opponent is not a very strong poker player? As in, when we just call the turn bet, we can pick up considerable live reads/information/timing & bet sizing tells from our opponent and therefore we make more correct/exploitative decisions on the river, rather than putting in additional bbs at an equity disadvantage, assuming we have 45% equity OTT.

From a theory standpoint I understand your logic, but from a reality standpoint I don't think it holds up in this scenario.

My general read of the situation is that OP plans to call virtually every river (maybe not the 7d/6d) vs this insane opponent. Assuming that is the strategy, and assuming that villain very rarely bet folds his range on the turn, I still see turn shove being maximal EV. The only way calling down maximizes is vs villain's total airballs like A3o or whatever.

^ if that's the strategy for river play and villain never folds the turn then yea ok I agree.

Results:

I checked behind river, he showed 107o, and MHIG.