Ok lets put UTG and V on a range


UTG should be tight, he could just be betting the flop with his whole preflop range and he checked the turn, probably plenty of air, but might check QJ JT even KJ AJ, and hands like 76 65 if he plays it as well as hands like Td9d QdTd, KdTd

V shouldnt be calling an UTG+1 range very wide either, id say itd be pretty wild for him to just call the flop with 77 and then check it. He could probably have similar hands to UTG but with basically zero air. This is a condensed range, capped but all strong.

Im not sure id bet that big ott. J7/J5/J3 definitely isnt in your preflop range, 75/64/53 isnt really in your range (shouldnt be in anyone else’s either), nor is 33/55/JJ really. So what are you repping? Are you calling flop and overbetting the turn with 77 and AJ? Im not saying it would be a bad play to do so, but probably not i feel like. This would smell an awful lot like a bluff to me if i had Jx.

I also just dont think you have great FE OTT, people dont fold top pair that often, nor do they fold pair + straight draw that often. You will fold out their flush draws which yiu dont want to fold. If i were to bet the turn, id bet small, but id just check it.

As played OTR it could definitely be AJ, people are too scared to chrck good hands otr, it could be a rando J naming their price, it could be a fd trying to steal. Id say easy call, only AJ calls the shove

If we're not bombing the turn here, we're exhibiting a huge leak IMO. Both UTG and UTG+1 are capped at this point and my hand is indifferent to a call with all kinds of outs, including both of my hole cards some of the time. There's just not many hands in either V's ranges that can call this overbet, which includes the hand that did call. Also to note I have enough to bluff on the river on a few runouts.

Your Jx read is monday morning quarterback. V's have seen me play 20 minutes and if I'm playing 30% of my hands, I could be polar here yes, but then I also get some two pair hands as well. If V is going to call with Jx, he's going to be in a terrible situation when I pot/jam the river and he has a HERO call that he's probably not used to making.

OTR he could have AJ but again we block it and you would at least think he's raising the flop or betting the turn with AJ some of the time. A rando j-10 or J-q would probably bet too to "see where you're at" using V's own logic, so V is just not ch/calling top pair all that often either. With V's unwillingness to 3 bet this hand pre, his unwillingness to give it up on the flop, his unwillingness to semi-bluff the turn...screams bad/"scared" player which is what I gathered from a previous couple of hands.

Agree with your synopsis on the river though which is question of this post. We beat other FD's which is the reason I called live, but the more i think of the hand, the more I realize V is leading so little of the time with a hand that we beat, our options really should be raise or fold.

First, having a 30% range doesnt mean you have a 30% range calling an utg raise and utg+1 call (if you do call this wide, its bad, and A4s is honestly not a good call pre except maybe rarely, so maybe you ARE way too wide here). After 3 betting which should be most of your continuing raise pre, you should probably have less than a 10% range that is condensed and strong.

Nowhere in here did you answer my question, is this how you play 77/AJ? If you do, i think its a great way to play them, and im not entirely opposed to it as a strategy of forming an overbet turb sizing around these value hands which i think often get called. I doubt you need to balance with semibluffs but its fine to, so betting turn is fine if you play your value this way. However, I highly highly doubt you do play AJ or 77 like this. You are playing against at least semibcompetent players and anyone with any sort of hand reading skills will think you are repping a draw, which is exactly what you have. Like oh yeah, you let a flop peel on a wet board and then when your opponents showed weakness you overbet their capped range, yeah thats how people usually try to extract value is by blowing them off their whole range.

You can call me monday morning QB but ive absolutely just check jammed in a spot like this when i pot controlled with JT when someone bets with the most obvious semibluff of all time, and id say V obviously feels the same about your bet considering he called with ace high, which I bet he thought was good without hitting (he obviously didnt have odds to draw) and stuck a value bet in against you otr, likely targeting the exact hand you were holding, considering he still loses to 77/AJ.

Bill - I believe you've confused yourself about what I've said. If you look at my original post specific to the hand, I never said V calls with Jx and folds Ax - you did.

When I responded to this point, I was not speaking to the hand itself as much as I was describing the way a hand range works on the river. Let me clarify that point:

Villain hand range in most situations ignoring the perception and image of Hero would look like {X}, where X is comprised of value hands that beat hero but also a few that could be behind hero.

The point I was making was given Hero's image as LAGgy perhaps even bluffy means villains range {X} might look like this now {X+y} where {y} is a group of combos weaker than the hands in {X}.

Breaking from the hand above and defining the above scenario a little more to clear up any possible confusion:
Here is a simple hypothetical -

An opponent VPIP'ing at a what's considered a tight frequency and only betting/raising etc would mean our strategy to call or raise their bets would also decrease. EG an old man coffee type player who suddenly wakes up and starts putting money into the pot has so few bluffs in their betting range that we would deviate from a normal strategy and fold more of our medium strength hands/bluff catchers etc on most run outs.

However, if an overly aggro opponent is playing way too many hands and then betting raising etc at a frequency well beyond what the probability of them connecting with the board with this huge set of starting hands, our strategy naturally would be more willing to call their bets/raises slightly wider than normal - call them down a little lighter than we would the OMC villain.


Returning to the hand in question:
In our specific situation with the OP, HERO is the aggro villain THUS the villain in OPs hand might be widening the range of hands they are willing to vpip against Hero. Villain in OPs hand however might also make poor choices on how to counteract an aggressive LAGgy strategy in so far as making weak bets to "see where they are at" in the hopes of dictating the cost of showdown.

Since we're trying to approach the hand example provided i didnt deem it necessary to critique villian's play too much but if the assumption that Hero is viewed as LAGgy Agro, Villain's bet on the river is bad. It was bad in the HH example provided in the vignette prior to the hand in question, it is likely they are making that same mistake again.

I think in most situations vs most villains calling here with Ax is probably the safer strategy but in terms of maximizing Hero's potential gain given the description of Villain and the hand itself, I think there's a very sensible way in which we can .. make more money.

Returning the hand range examples I provided above Villain arrives at the river with a range {X} but consequently if their perception of Hero is as described just above, that range might be {X+y}. They may be "knuckling up to just call this **** down".

The nebulous part is deciding does {X} or {X+y} lead a blocking bet on the river or does the range look more like {X+y} - {N} where {N} represents some portion of strong value hands?

Since Villain is unlikely to have many two pair hands if any, a PART of range {X} that includes hands Hero loses to is now smaller than if the board was say: JT53A or JK79A

Given that Villain's potential value combos are DECREASED, their range becomes weaker or more polarized. If we are adding {y} to Villain's range of {X}, it becomes even more weaker as {y} would be comprised of hands with showdown value (pockets Tens for example)

In my head we either must assume villain is acting on the turn and leading weak on the river intending to trap Hero - that might just be sets and nothing else in this situation. But we DONT KNOW if they're acting given the description as well as the information provided in OP - so if we operate on the information provided at the outset alone and not add anything more to it that would require some extra set of words from OP, it looks like Villain arrives to the river with a weak overall range. There is a stronger chance villain is adopting a wider call down range vs a loose agro opponent.


So because {X+y} has no 2 pair combos its distribution of hand strength leans towards more combos Hero is now ahead of.

Standard strat in this situation barring the nuanced observations: call.

But maximization of value for Hero is Shove > Click it back > Call

Or Click it back > Shove - but I think shoving maximizes value potential.

We are hoping Villain knuckles up and calls up lighter and wider due to our image.

I am very open to being wrong here in my analysis. Villain potentially could have a very strong hand and calls the over bet with the intention to lead weak on the river with the expectation that Hero does the agro thing and goes over top what would be perceived weakness. This is not far fetched and not improbable. But I am not convinced this is the case and I dont think I have enough information from the OP to lead me to that hypothesis without adding some level of "additional assumptions" we just dont really have here in the information provided. But it is clearly a non-zero possibility.

If you'd 3B pre, and especially if you c-bet the flop, I could see bombing the turn when the BDFD appears.

But as played, what are you repping with your big turn bet? 64dd? That's one combo. Your bluffs are somewhat obvious - basically A6/A4/A2 of clubs or diamonds, if not every AXdd and AXcc. Are you getting to the turn with 75s? That's another four value combos you might have in your range here.

Other than exactly 64dd, you'll never have better than 2P here, and your range is more weighted towards draws than value (at least 6 semi-bluffs vs at most 5 value combos, but maybe just 1 value combo), so bombing it could look like you're just on a draw, hoping everyone folds to your massive bet.

His call with AQcc is pretty reasonable, given the action, especially if you have a LAG image. Your AXdd combos are likely to have worse kickers than his Q.

I'm not sure what river card you'd want to bluff, when you're repping so thin for value on the turn. Any club completes the BDFD, which you don't block. Any 9, 8, 6, 4, 2 or Ace might complete a straight or make someone a better 2P than 75. It's unlikely a T, J, Q or K would help you, given what you're repping here.

You're only beating other diamond flush draws, and it's doubtful he's donk-betting a busted flush draw on the river after you bombed the turn.

You're losing to most AXcc, but we can call when we're getting 4:1, in the hopes V is betting A2cc or A4cc, or trying to rep AX, especially AJ, while holding JX, which isn't inconceivable, as he could have a lot of AXcc in his range that made top pair on the river, and JX blocks AJ. We only need to win 20% of the time.

This doesn't seem like a spot that should be viewed as raise or fold only. V could be bluffing, or block-betting with a worse value hand. Making a disciplined fold is certainly reasonable, but raising seems suicidal, the way this was played.

I just don't see him block-betting the river with AXcc, planning to fold to a raise, because, again, what would you be repping? Your raise would be repping something stronger than AJ, which could only be 64dd, exactly.

OP,

I like your hand-reading throughout the hand. It is also pretty admirable that you even noted that the previous hand where Villain bet/folded on an ugly turn card to you and claimed that he was "finding out where he was at." You put the dots together to conclude that Villain would be likely to bet Jx on this draw-heavy turn card for similar "find out where he is at" reasons.

Bonus points for showing creativity on this turn card when checked to you and following through on your early street hand reading.

We can argue back and forth whether your turn overbet line was great/good/mediocre/bad/whatever. I just wanted to give kudos to your hand reading thought process.

I have all the sets, 64cc, 64dd, 76dd, 67cc, 56dd and a bunch of hands including a jack like A-Jo, AJdd, KJo, KJdd, JQo, JQdd and J-10o, J-10dd. I agree I don't have many two pair hands here but V's don't know that and my range could include something like 53s, or 75s which might have taken one off given I'm closing the action on the flop.

What I think you might be missing and others, is though I do have bluffs, I have a serious range and nut advantage when being checked to on the turn. If my hand was say 78hh, I still can fire here and print against most reg and non-pro opponents. while nothing is 100% certain, if we feel our opponents are capped and we are uncapped, this is the time to put money in the middle.

To answer your question, I'd normally raise all sets on the flop against a deep opponent but here at 2/5, I know it's still very easy to get money in vs V1 with a short stack (especially if I believed he had an overpair) and I'd really be targeting main V2 with a bigger stack so it's very possible I smooth call flop with 33 and 77.

As stated, I have the range advantage with a majority of my bluff still beating AQs. If AQs thinks it's good here, I'd argue it should be raising in this spot as it's priced out of calling. I also don't see V calling a river bet without improving in the few cases I think a runnout is good in which neither of us improves which is probably like 30%.

Correct, we're stuck here in no man's land and it stinks. V is block-merging but he doesn't know that. He's doing the same thing he's already shown propensity to do, which is bet to see where he's at. It's a bad river bet by him because if I am bluffing, he has the perfect bluff catcher and should let me continue firing. That's just what I would do though. As played, we can come up with hands we can beat though it's more wishful thinking than 4:1. V's who play passively for 3 streets and then donk fire usually have something decent. If we were say, another 100bb deeper, would you change your reasoning on a raise or shove?

Thank you, Smoola! I've been studying a bit more recently and have been having some success in the tournament streets of late. I thought this was an interesting hand that the community would enjoy. Will share more in the future!

If this is your range facing a raise from a competent player UTG and a call from
UTG+1 we have found a massive leak in your game.

It's not, but they don't know that. I'd been there for 20 minutes and had already been allin once, and bet large a couple of other times. It's after 9pm on a Sunday if that helps set the table too.

UTG (700 stack) is reg and nothing out of the ordinary.

So...some basic hand-reading is in order...

I don't think you have all the sets here. I'd think we'd 3B JJ pre at almost 100% frequency, and probably 77 at some frequency, given there are 2 flat calls from MP. It's a reasonable spot to squeeze with 77, and what seems like a mandatory squeeze with JJ. Both 77 and JJ are mandatory raises on this two-tone flop, no matter how they were played pre-flop.

33? Nah. You'd raise flop on this two-tone board. 55? Nah. You're most likely folding flop with 55. Do you have AA? Never.

The only 53 combos that make sense to continue to the turn would be dd or cc, which you can't have. The 3d is on the flop, and the 5c is on the turn.

If you're telling us that you're smooth-calling the flop with 77 or 33, or showing up with other combos of 53s, fine, but V doesn't know that. Even if he did, he might not care, if he's holding AXcc, especially not if he's already got 1P to go with his flush draw, or a combo-draw with A2, A4 or A6 of clubs.

64s is an inside straight draw on the flop. Over-calling the flop c-bet with 64dd seems reasonable, but you might also raise flop with that combo. Maybe you call or raise with 64cc at some frequency, but I'm not giving you credit for every 64s combo, just those two. You shouldn't be chasing an inside straight on a two-tone board with no flush draw potential.

You can't have 76dd because the 7d is on board. Could you maybe have 76cc, 65dd or 54dd? Sure, maybe, but are all those hands over-calls on the flop, and over-bets on the turn? Is 87hh? Why would any of them be, when you have some showdown value, and can just take a free card?

Could you have some AJ? Maybe some, but V would probably expect you to be 3B'ing a lot of your AJs pre (recall from your hand history, that he 3B-jammed AJs pre), and there are only nine combos of AJo you could have here, assuming V doesn't block any of them (which we now know he did, reducing your combos to six).

You'd likely be raising flop with AJo at least some of the time, because, again, it's a two-tone board, and UTG bet flop pretty small. You wouldn't want to give two opponents a cheap turn card when you have TPTK. So I'm not giving you credit for having AJo when you play the hand the way you did.

Could you have some other JX combos, like KJ down to JT or J9? Sure, but I'm guessing KJs is a potential 3B from the BTN pre, and a lot of the better JXdd combos are going to be raises on the flop, for the reasons given above. You can't have any JXcc because the Jc is on board.

Your range / nut advantage on the turn isn't that "serious". It's limited to 64dd, 64cc, two combos of 75s and some weak JX. That's pretty much it, and only 64s is nutted. That advantage shrivels up on a lot of river cards.

If you had 64dd or 64cc, those hands are pretty nutted, and wouldn't always over-bet the pot, whereas 75s and JX would, as would A2, A4 and A6 of clubs or diamonds, and 86dd. So your over-bet is mostly repping weak top pairs, a vulnerable 2P, or a draw. All the draws brick out, and all your other weak value combos get downgraded to bluff catchers on the river.

I don't see how you think V is capped but we're uncapped. There was a UTG open, and V called next to act. That's pretty strong. He could do that with AA-JJ, because 3B'ing next to act over a UTG open looks insanely strong.

We over-called from the BTN, behind 2 flat callers, which gives us a range of almost any two cards, but few if any big PP's. We're at least as capped as V, if not more capped, given the pre-flop action.

What bluffs do you have that are better than AQcc on the turn? Your most likely bluffs would appear to be six combos of A2s, A4s, and A6s, and MAYBE one combo of 86s. We'd expect you to be raising pre with AK, and probably AJs. If you don't improve, AQcc wins at showdown.

What run-outs are you planning to barrel as a bluff, when you're repping so thin for value, and your bluffs are so obvious? 75s isn't going to bomb too many rivers for value, after V calls a turn over-bet.

You can't bomb river on a club. Or would you? Without the Ac? Good luck with that.

If your bluffs are A2dd, A4dd, A6dd and 86dd, you need a non-club 2, 4, or 9 to rep a straight. So you have nine bluff outs that V might think are somewhat credible. You'll catch one of those cards maybe 15%-20% of the time, not 30%.

As a general rule, we shouldn't be bluffing rivers very often with our busted flush draws. Whether you're trying to rep 64s, 75s, or some weak JX on the turn, V apparently doesn't believe you when he calls your over-bet, so you're going to need to make your hand, or catch one of those bluff outs.

There are 12 outs that will make your flush or straight about 20%-25% of the time, but V probably isn't paying you off if that happens, because your semi-bluffs on the turn are pretty obvious.

So really, your plan on the turn boils down to:

A) Pray to take it down on the turn, or
B) make your hand on the river 20%-25% of the time, and not get paid, or
C) bluff one of 9 cards that will come about 15%-20% of the time to steal the pot, or
D) bluff every river card, to rep 2P+, when V already told you he doesn't believe you, and that story becomes even less believable on most rivers, and
E) V will improve to TP2K, TPTK or a flush roughly 30% of the time.

My point about getting 4:1 on a call also has to do with basic hand-reading.

V didn't 3B pre, so his naked (no pair) AX of clubs combos should be pretty limited. If he's playing reasonably, it's basically AQ (at a low frequency), AT, A2, and A4. He could also have six combos of AJ.

You chop with A4, and beat A2. Meanwhile you beat all his JX that got sticky on the turn, and we'd expect to hear from him on the flop or turn if he had 2P+. I'd think he'd raise flop or bet turn with AJ.

As played, he's got a lot more A2, A4 and JX in his range than AJ, AQ or AT, so we're getting an insanely good price to call, and it would be a huge mistake to fold. It would also be a big mistake to raise, because he's only folding worse, and only calling with better.

It would only make sense to raise if we put him on A4, and wanted to push him off a chop, or thought we could get him to fold AT. He's not playing AQ this way just to fold TP2K, so a raise would only be targeting 2 hands to fold, which just isn't enough to justify the risk of getting snapped off by A4 or better AX.

Is his river bet terrible? Not if he thinks you're likely to shut down when the ace appears. Again, you were mostly repping 75s, JX, or a worse AX for a busted draw that rivered a weak TP. Those hands are going to be checking back a lot.

Are you saying you'd continue betting the river with A4 - top pair, $h1t kicker - if he checked to you? Why, when you can just take your showdown value? What worse hands can he have that will call?

I don't think being 100bb deeper would change much for me. I stand by my earlier analysis - we can call here, getting 4:1. Folding is too nitty, and raising is too kamikaze.

If you 3B pre, which would have been reasonable, and especially if you c-bet the flop, I could see barreling the turn and continuing an aggro line on the river. But as played, your turn over-bet smells more bluffy than value-heavy, and a river raise would be repping way too thin for value, only one combo of 64dd, or at most two combos if we add in 64cc, neither of which are as likely to be over-bets on the turn, when you have your opponents' ranges crushed.

The line you're proposing - flat pre, flat flop, over-bet turn, raise river - just doesn't align with AJ or 64s, so it's not one I would take, regardless of stack depth.

I can't tell if the "basic" is a joke or you just wrote that first

Wrote it first. My jokes are rarely that good.

It's just hand-reading. Not really basic when you take it to the degree I did.

Still, hand-reading is a skill we should have if we're going to attempt ambitious bluffs that rep super-thin for value, as OP has suggested here, framing the river as a raise or fold situation.

I agree with docvail, hand reading says you rep nothing. Idk why you think 20 minutes of aggression is gonna have people out you on a wide passive positionally unaware preflop range. If anything im thinking youre competent and thus not playing s1g here, and not calling flop with 77 to overbet turn into capped ranges.

What's your read on him. How he's acting. Do you think top pair low locker beats him?

If you have him beat and you raise, does he call? IF so, why raise?

I do. I'm literally calling with any pair.

You say "almost 100% frequency". That means I have it some of the time. Your words, not mine. Also FWIW, solver only raises JJ 2/3 of the time. I'm also not 3 betting 7s ever here. I'm looking for a cheap way to get involved, particularly vs the V in UTG+1 who has a stack. The fact you think 77 is a possible squeeze means you just don't understand what's going on here.

Yes, in normal situations I'm raising on the flop with a set of 3's, except in this particular instance where the initial raiser is short and the target is the caller, I think a call is perfectly fine. If initial raiser has AA, KK or QQ, we're GII anyways. Because UTG+1 is calling here, we would know he would be drawing for something and might call another bet OTT and then we could lay down the hammer. This is entirely reasonable.

No we don't have AA. We don't have 27o either.

In short, I could have a lot of combo draws that contain pairs which is all I'm saying. Do they warrant an overbet? I don't know, but I do overbet a lot on double flush boards with made hands. Both V's have shown weakness here and if either of them call, I have NFD, Gutter and possibly an ace to scoop the pot. IMO (and I could be wrong here) but this appears to be a great hand to semi-bluff in this situation after ch/ch OTT.

If I had AJo, I would have played the hand EXACTLY the same way. I'm NEVER raising the flop vs UTG c-bet and multiway. It's suicide here. This is more proof I don't think you understand what's going on here.

Again, suited broadway kings would 3! a lot here IF the UTG was the V who was deep. Still I probably do 3! some of the time. And as I just stated above and which you are incorrectly mapping, I'm not always going to be raising suited jacks (with diamonds) otf.

I also have all the sets which you've somehow forgotten. Even if we're talking a few combinations here, we absolutely have the nut advantage and if you're not willing to put money in the middle when you have it, you're not playing poker.

If i had 64 in any suit, I'm overbetting this pot 100% of the time. I really don't think you understand overbetting. For others who are following who want to understand why this "could" be an overbet, we want to use it when we have a nut advantage and can go full polar within our range to play for stacks. This allow us to get paid when we have strong hands over the course of your poker session or career. An overbet basically screams "Nut or nothing" most of the time so it's out in the open and we don't have to pretend that I'm never or always doing anything in this situation. We do not care whether V folds or calls our bet. It simply does not matter in theory. Sometimes we're gonna have it and sometimes we're not is exactly what we want. If he's ahead and calls, we play the river IP and proceed accordingly. If he's ahead and folds, great. If he had air and folds, great. There is really no need to count up the combinations of bluffs and value hands here. As long as they exist, that is good enough for the play.

So you're saying V could have AA (!) through JJ and not 3! pre, not raise flop with player IP behind and check the turn on a double flush draw? This is ludicrous speed. No one reading this should be scared of this situation. It's monsters under the bed 101. As stated, due previously 3 bet AJ and won a big one mere minutes ago.

The fact you think V has JJ and I can't seems more personal than theory.

This is false. See above statements.

I have A4dd, A5dd, 23dd, 34cc, 56dd, 66, A7cc, A3cc, KQcc, all hands containing a jack (which would be considered a merge since we wouldn't know if it was bluffing), 67s, 89dd, 89cc and probably some others. For the sake of argument, assume it's 50/50 whether AQ is good here. It simply doesn't matter and nobody and I mean nobody should be concerned right now on the turn. We arrived at the river with this play and now we have a decision to make after we hit an ace.

I'm going to bluff some of the time and I'm going to value shove some of the time and I'm going to check some of the time. Just because we bluffed the turn doesn't mean we automatically barrel the river. Honestly I'm jamming a lot of offsuit blanks! I think kings and queens would be good cards too as they fit into 'bluff but caught' pile as well as an ace (!) some of the time. Some of the time we are going to check back and lose though, or get rebluffed by a donk bet when we miss. There is absolutely nothing worth while to discuss here. The fact that you think V doesn't believe me IS relevant though, as most V just play their hand because they want to or feel they should. I think any reasonable person who looks at this hand would gather that the V called with AQs because he had a good draw and not because he thought he was ahead.

Remember I overbet the turn? I've already got my money when I do hit. To play devils advocate, if i had checked the turn and hit the river and bet and V folded...would I have missed out on value? Also you keep saying pretty obvious bluffs. It is not obvious. None of it, If V has a real hand and I hit, who knows what he does. If V doesn't have a real hand and also misses and I find a barrel, good for us! I really think you need to study some theory and work in some overbetting in your game and leave these odd 'assumptions' that are probably holding you back in your own game.

A) I'm not praying and don't care if he calls or not. See above.
B) Incorrect, assuming the worst. V has plenty of hands that call shoves, especially since we're polar.
C) Bluffing a few runouts yes.
D) No idea what you're talking about here. We are not bluffing all rivers. Take a breather, my guy.
E) Not sure what you're referring to here. OTR, I'm only concerned with board texture and what story I can tell with my hand.

Your basic hand reading doesn't hold water in my opinion, though I agree with some of what you're saying. Not arguing but just agree to disagree. We both think though he isn't likely to have 2 pair+ OTT. I think after the call, V has all the weak jacks and AJ even though we block it. To me this is the most logical hand range as played. Note if V checked the river after the ace hit, I would bet with this reasoning.

4:1 is roughly correct though on the call and is the decision of this long post.

As others reading this I'm sure, I'm very confused at this point. I think to simplify it, we should think about how often does V have unimproved jack vs not and whether V is capable of donk-bluff-betting the river after passively playing a hand for 3 streets AND having faced down the barrel of super aggression OTT. I'm not sure a solver would give this answer which makes is a fun little hand to discuss on 2+2. If someone wants to run it be my guest, but I wonder what would have happened if I did shove this river. In V's shoes, is this always a call? Is this a spot that is underbluffed and when you face it, just screams fold? Is V inelastic to all raises? Would it be different if we were deeper?

You think V thinks I'm likely to shut down when the ace hits. Interesting and possibly true but also could be just what this posts reads, which is a blocker bet. He doesn't want to get raised and wants to "see where he's at" just like in a previous hand.

Finally got to the end. Since you wrote so much I figured I'd at least try to respond to everything. Yes I would bet an offsuit ace some of the time if V checks to me, though I'm also checking back some of the time too. This would be based on live read, though in theory I think I should be betting more. I think sticky jacks call some of the time and this V seems to be a great candidate/player type that would do so.

Ok you think 100BB doesn't change a thing. All good.

I didn't 3B pre so no need to get into that.

Lastly, agree to disagree as stated many times above. I don't think you get this line completely and that's ok. You know what I have and know what transpired. Had I wrote this post as a winner with 64dd or AJdd or AJo, you would believed every word.

I appreciate your response though as I know you put time into it. GL

I didn't know at the time. AP I thought I didn't have enough chips to persuade him off a better hand and thought I had too good of a hand to fold.

I've come to the conclusion that folding in this particular situation would have been the best, then calling then shoving.

I know I didn’t provide a strict range analysis of combos but villain shiudlnt usually have a lot of AxXx combos by the river at all (again, part of the {X-y} range described in a prior post.

Hence why I don’t think we shove as a bluff but shove with intention of using our image or get villain to call us lighter.

This analysis is based STRICTLY off this hand and villain info.

This is Absolutely a deviation from standard play where we would ignore any meta info about the hand.

In that situation calling or folding is the best. I’m not sure exactly which would be the most optima but given bet size and the fact we further reduce villains AxXx combos I think calling is best option as a standard play.

I don’t think analyzing from POV where we shove to fold out the few AxXx combos here warrants the risk of what else is in the range that block bets this river.

You're calling with any pair pre-flop, or on the flop, or both? You're saying you're NEVER raising pre, or simply never FOLDING any PP pre? You're not folding 55 on the flop, EVER?

If you have a raising range pre, what is it? Are there no pocket pairs in that range? Are you really flat-calling pre with JJ? You're NEVER squeezing that dead money from the two MP callers?

Squeezing with 77 is a good play if it folds out 88-TT and a lot of higher SC's. It's even better if you get called and flop a set. You're deep enough here to raise and still go set-mining if you get called.

But, we were talking about V's actions on the turn, and what range HE'S giving you, not what range you think you can have here. Even if you're NEVER raising pre, and ALWAYS calling with every PP, he may not think you're getting to the flop with JJ. Maybe 33 and 77, sure.

Your line in this hand is all about what range YOU think you can have here, whereas Tomark, I and others are looking at what range WE'D think you'd have, if we were V.

If you get to the turn with every combo of 64, JJ, 77, 55, 33, and 75, great, you can over-bet all day, with those hands, and also balance with some bluffs. But you can't over-bet with your bluffs if V doesn't put those sets, 2P and straights into your range.

If V doesn't give you those thick value hands, your bluffs aren't getting through. Meanwhile, your actual hand is EXACTLY the sort of obvious combo-draw semi-bluff V is VERY likely to put into your range.

I think raising a set here, multi-way, on this dynamic board, is pretty standard, regardless of which V is deep-stacked.

Even if YOU think you'd flat call with your sets, we were talking about V. Does HE think you're flatting with sets? Probably not. Does HE think you're flatting the flop with 55? Probably not. So he's probably not giving you any sets on the turn.

You could also have some draws that don't have a pair, and would also over-bet. Case in point, you had an unpaired draw, and you over-bet. So if V was putting you on an unpaired flush draw, he was dead right to call with AQcc.

And if you had a made hand, like 64, or 2P+, you might have raised at some point before the turn. Again, it's not about what YOU think YOU would do with YOUR range, it's about what HE thinks you would do with your range.

V really didn't show THAT much weakness here. He called a UTG open pre next to act, and called the flop c-bet with two other players behind him. That usually indicates some strength, even if it's only moderate strength. I might not give him a hand as strong as AQ, but he could certainly have a lot of AXcc with a better ace than ours.

I'm not hating on your turn bluff in theory, because, yes, you do have the NFD, and a gutter. I wouldn't necessarily think pairing our ace would always be good enough at showdown, but it might be, which is why we can flat call on the river, rather than getting out of line and turning our hand into a bluff.

The problem with your raise is just what I said - you didn't raise pre, nor did you raise flop. You're repping super-thin for value. V might not believe the story you're telling with your over-bet. If you want to turn your hand into a bluff, you should have started your bluff earlier, by 3B'ing pre, or raising the flop.

Even if he thinks you MIGHT have some of the thick value you're trying to rep in your range, as you've stressed repeatedly, you're deep enough with V for him to call and chase his flush draw, or try to spike an A or Q on the river. His flush beats your straight, 2P, and sets. His pair of aces or queens beats your pair of jacks. He's obviously not worried about you having AJ or QJ and getting coolered when he makes top pair.


Call me clueless and suicidal if you must. I think not raising TPTK in spots like this is a leak.

Using your own logic - apparently you can get to the flop with every pocket pair, or at the very least JJ, 77, and 33. So, you can rep every set on the flop, if you wanted to, as well as AJdd (again, assuming you're just flat calling pre with that hand, not 3B'ing, because you're deep with V), or AJo.

If you're getting to the flop with JJ, it's not hard to think you could have QQ, because apparently you're never squeezing pre. I guess you could also have AA/KK?

If you have the range you think you do, AJ is actually the weakest hand you could raise, and only a sliver of your apparently monstrous range of sets and over-pairs.

Your logic for over-betting the turn, and contemplating a hypothetical raise on the river, doesn't align with your logic on the flop.

You're arguing that you could have tons of thick value on the flop, and therefore your turn over-bet or a hypothetical river raise should make V fold to all that obvious thick value, and yet somehow it's suicidal for you to raise flop, because...you don't have thick value?

Got it. You're not raising KJs or much if anything else pre. You're not raising flop with JXdd for what appears to be the same reason you're not raising AJ or sets. Something about which V is deep and which isn't, and how strong your range looks when you show no aggression whatsoever on this wet board, when UTG c-bets less than half pot and UTG1 calls.

Maybe I am too dense. If you're deep with V, wouldn't you want to do some raising with your strong hands, to build the pot? Why would you slow-play with thick value on the flop, but over-play a decent combo-draw on the turn?

Don't answer that from YOUR perspective. Answer it from V's. If V is supposed to think you're slow-playing thick value on the flop, why would he think you're suddenly blasting off on the turn, rather than betting small to milk him for more value when he checks?

How does "I'm never raising pairs pre or sets on the flop" align with "V should know how strong my range is when I over-bet the turn"?

Honestly, reading all your posts, from OP to this one, all I'm getting is, "I spazzed when action checked to me on the turn, over-played my combo-draw, and V should have folded, but he didn't, so isn't he a dummy for not giving me credit for having a better hand?"

Uhm, no. He isn't. He flopped two overs, a BDFD and BDSD. He picked up equity with a club on the turn, correctly read your over-bet as weak, and then milked you for value by going thin with his river bet.

I haven't forgotten YOU think you have all the sets. You've ignored that no one else thinks you have all the sets. V definitely doesn't think that.

YOU think you have the nut advantage here. V probably just thinks you're nuts. I can see why.

Read the two statements I boldfaced and underlined. Keep reading them until you understand how contradictory all your logic is.

Regarding the statement in red - in previous posts, you said there weren't many if any hands V should call with, including his actual hand, and if he thought he was good with AQ, he should have raised. But it actually seems like you really wanted him to fold, and not call. I disagree that he should have raised, because unlike you, he apparently understood how his opponents perceived his range, and understood how he should play his actual hand, as opposed to some make-believe range no one would give him.

If you're over-betting 100% of the time with 64, fine. And V apparently would have paid you off with AQcc. Great. If you're balancing with bluffs, even better. A4dd isn't the worst, just one of the most obvious.

If I'm V, I could give you one or two combos of 64s, as well as a bunch of other / worse hands, and call off with AQcc. I'm folding a lot of other hands, so your bluffs would get through at least some of the time. But most of those hands would be worse than yours, so...you wouldn't actually be bluffing. I'm not folding any value hands, that's for sure.

The problem you keep overlooking is that your nut advantage isn't as big as you think it is, from V's perspective. You're giving yourself a lot of thick value that no one else would give you. And as you keep pointing out, you're deep enough with him that he can comfortably call your over-bet with his stronger value hands and stronger draws.

You might want to try counting up all the bluffs and value hands you can have before making this play next time. Then you might want to consider how many of those V is likely to think you have.

Again, if you're REALLY slow-playing all your sets on the flop, and if you have a ton of 1P + a draw hands in your range, then, in theory, you have WAY better hands to over-bet here. You could actually have a TON of super-thick value here, as well as draws with some showdown value, and absolutely print against guys like V, who will call off with AQcc.

You wouldn't need to balance with bluffs like A4, because you'd have so much value here, and your 1P + a draw bluffs would have more equity. But V doesn't agree with the range you're giving yourself. He thinks you were FOS with your over-bet, and he was dead right.

When he 3B AJ, what position was he in, and what position did the initial raise come from? How many calls were there before he 3B? How deep was he then? How deep was his opponent?

Whatever the situation was, he won, and tripled up, so a lot's changed since that hand. If nothing else, he's now deep enough that you're flatting pre with every PP, never squeezing, and flatting all your flopped sets.

3B'ing next to act over a UTG open looks insanely strong, and makes JJ-AA pretty face-up, so good players (like V, apparently) will flat call with a stronger range that many other players would feel compelled to 3B. In this case, that apparently included AQs, which seems pretty reasonable to me, as would AA-JJ, especially if there's an aggro-fish on the BTN.

My point was in reference to you saying he's capped, but you're uncapped. You got that backwards. It wasn't to say I think he has AA-JJ on the turn.

If no one 3B's pre, AA-QQ are basically really good bluff-catchers on the flop. I doubt he's got JJ when he flat calls flop, and probably not AA-QQ after he checks turn, but that doesn't prevent him from having top pair, or some strong second pairs like 88-TT, or two overs with a flush draw.

The point was about your assumption that he's weak when he checks turn, but that somehow you're not weak when you played your hand EXACTLY the same way to that point.

He flat called pre next to act. You flat called pre from the BTN. He looks stronger than you. He flat called the PFR's c-bet next to act. You over-called. He looks stronger than you. You're more capped than he is, even after he checks to you on turn, and he could be checking a lot of hands that are not planning to fold to your sudden aggression.

I could keep going, but this has gone on long enough. Let me simplify this as best I can:

1) No one thinks your range is as strong as you do on the turn. V certainly doesn't, as evidenced by his call of your over-bet. Apparently he thought you were bluffing with exactly the sort of hand you did in fact have, so his read was dead right.

2) Even if you had the range you think you did, he had enough equity and implied odds to call, so even if his read had been wrong, his call was also correct in theory.

3) His river bet was mwah (*chef's kiss*). He knew his customer, and bet 1/4 pot, too small for you to fold, and almost got you to level yourself into making a huge blunder with a raise.

4) If you want to bluff with A4s, start pre-flop, and follow through on the flop and turn. When your opponent calls, you brick out, and your opponent donks into you, fold, don't raise.

so this hand interested me enough to ask a few of my abc 1/3 break even type friends what they think V had, and they all thought it was Axdd but also value like 77/33/AJ/KJ (nobody really thought he has 75 64 53) So i think docvail and I might be somewhat wrong (right about S1g, wrong about people putting you on value like AJ KJ 77 33) , and the issue is we are overestimating the population’s hand reading skills.

HOWEVER, obviously this V has good hand reading skills, so thats the risk you run. How good is V? Might work vs mediocre players.

By "V", I take it you mean OP?

We could be over-estimating the population's hand-reading skills, but we could also just be accurately assessing how sticky the population can be in spots like this.

AXdd is obvious. If we give OP every possible combo of AXdd, and every possible combo of 77, 33, AJ and KJ, it's still a call on the turn, with V's hand (AQcc, not A4dd), at this stack depth.

A lot of the population is going to discount 77, 33 and good JX, at least to some extent, when it's a two-tone flop, because so many in the player pool tend to play TP+ hands hyper-aggressively when there's a front door flush draw on board. A lot of the player pool is also gonna be sticky with their own NFD's they pick up on the turn.

I dunno. Maybe the player pool in my area is better than average at hand-reading, or maybe they're all playing more face-up. I'm just never giving OP credit for having a ton of thick value on the turn, based on how he played the hand up to that point.

I can give him one or two combos of 64s or 75s, some slivers of 77/33, and a good chunk of AJo or KJs, but that's it for value. I'm giving him every AXdd under the sun, some 7X that needs protection, and if he's tilted from seeing me triple up with AJs, some total air-ball spaz bluffs.

As V, I'm calling turn. As OP, I'm just flat calling the river, because 4:1, top pair, $hlt kicker.

This hand really didn't need nearly as much discussion as it got. It's pretty ordinary - we over-bet bluffed with one over and a combo draw when action checked to us on the turn, our draw bricked out but we rivered a weak top pair, and our opponent donked into us for 1/3 pot. It's a pure call, or maybe occasionally a fold, but never a raise.

Yeah. My bad. I posed the question as “hero” being UTG having QJ to see if theyd call.

Yeah. My friends are pretty weak to action compared to the population, i wouodnt call them typical 2/5 regs or anything. Very unscientific poll.

Yeah im giving him none of that, if i had QJ that checked for pot control, after this bet im just jamming. But he isnt playing againsyt you or me, (granted it turns out he was ppaying against someone who read the hand similarly, but he couldnt possibly know that.

I think its interesting, because i think overbetting turn might be the theoretical correct sizing for your range and i think A4dd is a good bluffing candidate, but in practicality i lean bluffing with a smaller sizing because it reps a hand like AJ better. River not interesting at all, i agree there.

Anyway i do think we are beating a dead horse at this point.

Bro, you're lost. Hope you eventually do find your way into the light, but man do you have a ways to go to get there.

Just want to share the 3 bet jam V did with AJ previously. I don't remember stack sizes exactly but I remember how much he won. The following is the best of my memory:

2/5/10 with 10 dollar straddle on the button.

SB folds, BB calls (800 starting stack) UTG folds, Our Villain in middle position calls UTG+1 (900 starting stack). Folds to Cutoff who raises to 80 (stack over 1k) . Everyone folds back to the BB who cold calls the 80. V now takes a beat or two and back-jams 900. The cutoff tanks and then calls. BB insta calls for the 3rd time in the hand.

BB has JJ
V has AJs
Cutoff KK

Ace on flop and dry run out. V collects around 2800.

And for more reference, the actual 2nd hand I discussed in the OP:

2/5/10 with straddle UTG (straddle was all over the place) Raise in early position, V flats in middle or Lo-Jack, another caller in late and I call in the BB with Ad-10x.

Flop Jd-Qd-4c. Ch/bet/V calls, fold, I call.

Turn: 6d

Ch/Ch/V fires 125 into a pot I believe to be around 275. I ch/raise to 375 with I believe less than 500 remaining at this time. Fold, V says out loud, "Wanted to see where I was at, and I got it" triumphantly. This was him telling me that he knew I had a flush which in this case *chef's kiss* was incorrect.

This is the guy you think is soul reading me. This is the guy you think is a good player. This is the guy you're giving JJ-AA in his range because "UTG is strong" or some make-believe reason apparently only you know. This "value owner" who is playing perfect GTO and exploitive poker all into one because after 20 minutes of action, he knows I'm full of it for sure in this particular spot.

To all the logical people out there, V called with AQs on the turn because he thought it was a good hand. Nothing else. Had I jammed the turn or bet 75, V is calling. Maybe he wants to gamble, maybe he just doesn't want to back down to aggression because he's a man's man or maybe, just maybe, he thinks his AQ was the best hand all along on every street and was just praying that me, someone who has to this point played pretty passively as well, will do something that is done in like 1% of all 2/5 games and overbet and then know that UTG will fold and not rejam and then will be able to HERO call, all while knowing there's at least a 75% that the runout will be difficult out of position when we miss our hand on the river.

Not going to go through your long and error-ridden post because it's obvious to me you don't understand theory, you certainly don't understand ranges and you most definitely cant characterize a player type. Also FWIW, you come off smug and I really have a hard time understanding you. I feel you're 'hate-writing' at the keyboard and so happy a stranger lost a poker hand which is sad and also very telling about your character.

Lastly I will not replying to anything you post on this thread again. If others want to chime in, I'll respond. Otherwise I'll just let it be.

[QUOTE=Tomark;58548831



if i had QJ that checked for pot control, after this bet im just jamming. But he isnt playing againsyt you or me, (granted it turns out he was ppaying against someone who read the hand similarly, but he couldnt possibly know that.
.[/QUOTE]


No you are not. This is Monday morning QB bs. UTG not even raising QJ here. UTG +1 V is also betting this hand on the turn if he has it (or 100% raising according to others).

Nobody is reading my hand at all. V is playing his own hand. I'm astonished how many of you can't see this.

I guess I'm confused then. V isn't trying to read your hand at all? He's simply floating a tiny cbet flop with two suited overs, picks up a flush draw on turn, thinks he has odds to catch, then? Is V scaling their river bet to hand value?(Which doesn't make sense considering the straddled pf HH you listed, where V went nuts with suited broadway.) Is V here sticky enough to call a shove from H?

If so, is that because V is ignorant of how wide a Button call pf 'should' be at this stack depth, action, and presumable unlikely squeeze from the Blinds? Therefore most straights are out, most 2p besides AJ are out, and V thinks most sets raise flop (though, given position and PF, reasonable for button with a set to not necessarily raise flop), so why not bet TP2K?

FWIW, I was suspicious of a better suited Ace in clubs from V, explaining his behavior. It's been an educational discussion.