Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,937
TL;DR pre good, flop good, turn too small, river jam as played
Preflop mixing call and 3bet at 50/50 freq is good. Saying one option is better than the other would have to depend solely on the players left to act behind you and/or the open raiser.
Flop is weird because he's not really supposed to be potting it here so we're already far as **** from where we "should" be in this hand. I'd go for a raise and follow my live poker mantra of let other people make mistakes.
Betting bigger on the turn is good but not because it sets up stack sizes on the river better; setting up river stack sizes isn't really a thing. We want to bet bigger on the turn because we are super polar repping minimum 2 pair so our "value" that wants to bet on the turn, wants to do so for a larger size. I think anywhere from 66%-80% on the turn is good. Also in a practical sense I imagine his calling range vs 50% and 80% to be very similar and inelastic. However if we went any bigger I think we might see some more folds with AK, QJ, T9 type hands.
On the river, for your combo, the Jc is a complete brick because he's never supposed to have JJ, KQ, Q8 in this line, however yea it does make it a lot harder to get paid by AT T9 A9 and now 99 is no longer near the top of your value range. We lose to AA (which I don't think ever pots the flop), TT (which I think again might not pot size the flop, but ok it might), and 78s (which he absolutely could have maybe all 4 combos) but can potentially get heroed by all kinds of ****. This spot looks close if we assume opponent to be competent but I'd jam in game as he started the hand with a pot sized bet on the flop, again following my live poker mantra of letting other people make mistakes.