2/5/10 8-handed, villain is unknown but after a few orbits he seems quite active, 3-betting a few times, and calling 3-bets each of the 2 or 3 times he's been raised. Don't have any solid info for postflop play.

Effective stack a little over 900

Villain opens to 35 UTG+2, folds to hero in SB with AdKh, hero makes it 135, V calls.

Flop (280) : Ks Qc 8s
Hero bets 125, V calls.

Turn (530): 4d
Hero bets 325, villain shoves, about 350 for hero to call, pot is 1180

Basically I think we're seeing KQ a lot of the time, and this is a risk of betting the turn. A ran the spot in a solver and this the line the solver takes, always calling the turn shove, especially with no spades or clubs, folding is blunder. In the hand I just sort of shrugged and called it off, pretty sure I was losing, I even got a bit of a read where he (maybe) kind of looked like he was gonna fold just before I put in the bet on the turn, but then shoves instead — I don't know, does anyone think we can make an exploitative fold?

What basis do you have for making an "exploitative" fold with an obvious calling hand, especially against someone who clearly is not a nit?

Edit: I just saw that you're getting 3:1 on the call after betting 2/3 pot (!?). Of course you can't fold here. If he has KQ/88, good for him.

I think this is an underbluffed board for 3! pot. Unless your own image is terrible, for example, the villain thinks you would 3! pre, then double barrel this board with 57hh, I think you can overfold to his jam.

Yeah, I guess you're right — honestly nothing other than my instinct at the time, watching this guy, just feeling sure that this isn't a bluff and I'm beating no value. But if I'm really gonna fold based on that it's up to me to be well sure I'm right

It's a gross spot, but you put yourself in it by stuffing the turn rather than checking or betting much less if you were planning to bet-fold. Like all of us do at times, I assume you didn't have a plan regarding the turn bet size or what to do if you were raised?

While it's usually not smart to call hoping for a chop, he also has AK in his value range, and you are getting 3:1

You are getting about 5-1. The problem is you have little equity against KQ or 88 and he should rarely be bluffing. You would have odds to call if you knew he had Q8s, but other 2-pair are unlikely. However, I would not be able to fold here.

Why does no one give credit to the villain having QQ? V opened and could not reraise, now they flopped a set, i predict a cooler unless vs. a passively played set, well played hero generally, you stepped on the landmine,

If someone pretends to be about to fold then raises that's often a very strong hand. So if you are sure on the read you could fold but obviously it's not a fold in theory.

Not sure why someone says it's 5 to 1 on the turn!

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There is 530 in the pot going to the turn. You bet 325 and he raises 350 more allin. If he called, there would be 1180. He raised 350, so you need to call 350 to win 1530. 1530/350 ~= 4.23. So 4.23-1. Not 5-1 but closer to that than 3-1 someone said.

Altering our flop sizing will help us better understand what we are trying to accomplish on the turn. As played, you have a little more than a pot-sized bet left ott which puts you in a spot where if you decided to go smaller and villain calls, then otr you won't have much fold equity with your bluffs.

Going smaller otf allows us to get away from the hand if a terrible card comes ott, allows us to x/r if we think villain stabs too much when checked to, as well as keep generating value when a safe card comes.

OTOH, we can also size up otf and jam turn which imo could be better if we think villain has a relatively inelastic calling range otf but is also capable of folding some KJ/AQ hands ott. This allows us to play our good draws such as AsJs-AsTs, JsTs super fast for maximum fold equity.

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Going to be hard to get away from this one. There's a chance he has AK and with the slightest chance he could have something like KJs or a combo draw, I think we are committed. We only need 19% equity here.

This one is tough. I think maybe if we take a very exploitative approach by sizing down the flop a bit, say ~ 1/3 pot flop and half pot turn then maybe we can get away from it.

Alternatively we could take the Marc Goone approach and just check the flop OOP. But I think betting small like 1/4 or 1/3 accomplishes a similar result.

The idea is that players are going to play extremely poorly when check too. If you check and they check behind or go small like 1/3 on the flop, a lot of players are going to be super weak, while if you check and they go 2/3+ on the flop, they are going to be super strong.

At equilibrium your play is probably fine and we are just calling off. I think most players, including pros are not going to be able to get away from this hand at this SPR. Somehow being able to get away from it (by either going different sizing or checking on flop/turn and allowing yourself to fold at some point) is either a super elite or super weak nitty play. 3 betting from the SB at 90 straddles and flopping top pair or an overpair usually results in an auto stack off.

Just check or bet small on the flop, like $90. Think I prefer to just check and make a delayed c-bet on the turn.

As played, maybe he has AQss, or JTss. Only one combo of KQs, but if he raise-calls.pre with all the KQ combos, plus QQ, we're unlikely to see a bluff here.

I was in a similar spot a couple of months ago, (3! at SB, AKo on a two tone flop, barreled two streets and faced a jam on the turn, very similar pot odds to call). Main difference is the villain type. I didn't manage to fold that time, and villain showed a flopped bottom set. Funny enough, on that post people seemed to be leaning towards a sigh fold.

Yesterday I saw a hand at my table slightly similar to yours, difference is that it was a Q high flop, and K arrived on the turn. AK needs a 'cheaper' price to call KQ's check jam on the turn, but he managed to get away with it.

I am curious to know any examples other 2+2ers have experienced or seen, in 3! pot and similar runout, that the person who jams has a hand worse than AK. I wonder what the bluffing hands (in reality, not GTO theory) are, and do they manage to bluff AK off?

Ah yes. I and everyone else just went by the final pot size op wrote, without checking, which is obviously incorrect! He said 1180

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