Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $394.00
BB: $446.20
UTG: $794.00
MP: $306.00
CO: $225.10
Hero (BTN): $485.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 8 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($28.00) 7 8 T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls $16

Turn: ($60.00) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($60.00) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $48, SB raises to $366 all in


Villian is pokersletje, who i think is a marginal winner(donk), but i could be wrong. Other than that i really dont have any clue what to do here.

I call out of confusion.

We has a FULL HOUSE! SNAPCALL!

interesting theory

This has gotta be a fold but idk if I can ever make it. Looks like he has 89 or 99 so ****ing hard but I guess you can hope he has 77 or busted flush. We would've bet the turn with a straight, so he's gotta know that we're only betting this river for value with boats and like AA. Air and AA folds to any raise and boats (typically) snap call/shove so why does he raise so much? Such a sick spot man. I think fold.

handreading tells me he has 99 but I'm pretty sure I would find some reason to justify a call

call this you will see QJ a lot here

This is what i was thinking. Even so, what worse does he expect us to call with here?

yea i think hes going crazy with QJ, some random J or ******o bluffs cause no one with half a brain plays any boated up hands like this (except 99 i guess)

99/89 QJ and bluffs so like looks like your ahead of his "range"

I can't imagine not calling here. Even if his range is exactly {99/98/QJ} you're ahead (16 combos QJ, 3 combos 99, 3 combos 98 -- even if you weight 99/98 more heavily, you'd have to make it 3x more likely for Villain to play 99 or 98 than QJ like above before calling becomes -EV).

Factor in that you haven't represented a ton of strength so far and that you're likely value betting the river much wider than {Jx,boat} and calling seems even better.

Factor in that he could be doing something random or spewy and folding is just out of the question.

Even though I'm not ecstatic about getting check-raised here, I think we're ahead often enough that I wouldn't really ever hesitate to call without a read like "uber-nit only crai river with the nuts."

the "amount of strength we've shown" argument is irrelevant given that it's impossible for him to not have at least a bluffcatcher and the board texture was far different on the street that we checked than the streets we bet and he's representing a nut hand

I mean it's like you're trying to argue that he thinks we can't have a set because of us checking behind on an unpaired four-straight board which obviously makes no sense at all

If you look at it from his point of view, it's pretty tough for you to rep a big hand, so he can definitely be doing this as a bluff. It sucks that he shoved instead of making it like $190 because that makes it look more like a valueshove and less like a bluff, but the only hand he can really rep that has you beat is 99. I tank and call, and if he has 99, good for him.

It's not that I'm trying to argue that he thinks we can't have a set, but that our range for betting that river is much wider than sets/boats. The only hands that we eliminate from our range on the turn are Jx hands, but I imagine we're value-betting the river wider than boats, right?

Since we aren't showing up with a boat here a ton, Villain can check-raise QJ or Jx hands for value (assuming we sometimes hero-call worse and sometimes he folds out a chop). Depending on Villain he may c/r bluff too just because we so rarely have a straight, but we will have a lot of hands that won't fold for a single bet on the river but may still b/f.

Anyway, the point I was making is: my range for betting the river is wide enough that bet/folding a full house when there are only 2 hands out there in Villain's likely range that beat me is just too exploitable for my tastes, regardless of whether or not it is regularly being exploited.

It's not like I'm just stubbornly making a crying call so as not to be exploitable, though -- from a pure value perspective I think we're ahead often enough for the call to be profitable in a vacuum.

checkraising here with a naked jack sounds like the worst idea ever

checkraising as a bluff here is close behind

instacall. QJ most of the time.

They're the same thing.

Folding looks really solid here