Pot is $103 before Villain has to call $22 from the straddle. That's tempting odds for a lot of hands to call.
Lets take out KK, AK, and JJ, because we assume he will raise PF with those hands.
So what is left that makes sense on the turn? KJs, QTs, 77, T9s, 98s and probably 75s and 64s.
Hero has 67% equity against this range. Add in off-suit variants and that percentage only goes up higher. Same if he has a AcXc.
Questions about Villain - would he call PF with Kjo, and is he good enough to lay down top-two here? That's important to know...
But you guys are deep, am I right (1100 eff)? There is 364 on the turn, when Villain raises you. Is he really going to stack-off with top two, for that much? He still has 890 left behind, so 364 + 890 = 1254 what the pot is when you go AI. 890 to call and win a pot of 1254. He should fold pretty much every thing that you beat, and do it correctly.
If you raise AI on the turn and get called, it will only be by 77 or K
J
. Against that narrow range you are only 20%. Doesn't seem worth it. Its even worse if he slow-played JJ PF, which is definitely a possible scenario.
Add in some straigh-flush combos QTc and T9c. Against that calling range you are 36%. Still not worth it. In a weird way, you would be turning your hand into a bluff if you go AI here. Why would you do that?
So calling him, with the plan of calling whatever the river is (unless its the case 5), makes good sense. I would not plan to check raise AI on the river, as you did, for the same reasons as on the turn - what hands call you that you beat?
The other option, which could be fun, is re-raising him on the turn to 360 - double his raise. If he shoves, back over the top you could probably assume the worst, and fold, but you are also allowing/forcing his draws, and KJ, to call, and give more value.
In the write-up you suggested that he might be tilting, as he had just lost a big pot when his AA got cracked. If he is tilting, its even more reason to just call turn, and give him an opportunity to fire another bluff. Raising turn just makes him play correctly - don't do that!
Last edited by Aulm; 08-19-2019 at 07:29 AM.
Reason: Fixed math